Idioma:Español
Vila Nova v Ponte Preta
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Vila Nova (Local)
Predicción 70.08%1.43momio equitativo
EV -3.29%
Ventaja -2.38%
Kelly -8.65%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.38
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
66.54%70.06%69.97%72.18%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.251.331.331.3880.00%75.37%75.19%72.46%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Ponte Preta (Visitante)
Predicción 9.91%10.10momio equitativo
EV +8.96%
Ventaja +0.815%
Kelly +0.896%
Crecimiento +0.080%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 11.00
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
8.47%9.94%9.95%12.55%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
7.008.839.0011.0014.29%11.33%11.11%9.09%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 20.01%5.00momio equitativo
EV -0.936%
Ventaja -0.189%
Kelly -0.237%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.95
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
18.80%20.00%20.08%21.71%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.204.524.504.9523.81%22.13%22.22%20.20%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Vila Nova (Local): 70.08%; Ponte Preta (Visitante): 9.91%; Empate: 20.01%. Para Ponte Preta (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 10.10. 3 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 11.00, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +8.96%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (47 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.85%EV -8.89%E -6.84%K -29.65%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV +8.96%E +0.815%K +0.896%G +0.080% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.66%EV -4.94%E -1.04%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-19 22:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.70%EV -8.89%E -6.84%K -29.65%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.47%EV +8.96%E +0.815%K +0.896%G +0.080% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.83%EV -5.94%E -1.26%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-19 22:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.91%EV -6.79%E -5.11%K -20.58%G +0.000% | 10.90I 9.17%NM 8.77%EV +7.97%E +0.731%K +0.805%G +0.064% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 19.32%EV -0.936%E -0.189%K -0.237%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-19 23:15 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.20%EV -6.79%E -5.11%K -20.58%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.47%EV -0.944%E -0.094%K -0.105%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.33%EV -1.94%E -0.395%K -0.497%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-19 22:56 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.23%EV -8.19%E -6.25%K -26.43%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.33%EV -0.944%E -0.094%K -0.105%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.44%EV -3.94%E -0.820%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-19 22:56 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.23%EV -8.19%E -6.25%K -26.43%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.33%EV -0.944%E -0.094%K -0.105%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.44%EV -3.94%E -0.820%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-19 22:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.18%EV -12.40%E -9.92%K -49.59%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.02%EV -0.944%E -0.094%K -0.105%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.80%EV -3.94%E -0.820%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-08-19 22:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.29%EV -12.40%E -9.92%K -49.59%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.91%EV -0.944%E -0.094%K -0.105%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.80%EV -9.94%E -2.21%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-08-19 22:45 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.29%EV -12.40%E -9.92%K -49.59%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.91%EV -0.944%E -0.094%K -0.105%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.80%EV -9.94%E -2.21%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-08-19 23:15 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 70.77%EV -8.19%E -6.25%K -26.43%G +0.000% | 9.75I 10.26%NM 9.51%EV -3.42%E -0.351%K -0.391%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.72%EV -5.94%E -1.26%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-19 23:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.93%EV -8.89%E -6.84%K -29.65%G +0.000% | 9.75I 10.26%NM 9.46%EV -3.42%E -0.351%K -0.391%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.62%EV -5.94%E -1.26%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-19 23:24 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 70.73%EV -8.19%E -6.25%K -26.43%G +0.000% | 9.70I 10.31%NM 9.55%EV -3.92%E -0.404%K -0.450%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.71%EV -5.94%E -1.26%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-19 23:25 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.50%EV -6.09%E -4.55%K -17.91%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.80%EV -5.90%E -0.621%K -0.694%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -9.94%E -2.21%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-19 22:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.34%EV -6.79%E -5.11%K -20.58%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.71%EV -5.90%E -0.621%K -0.694%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -11.94%E -2.71%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-19 22:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.34%EV -6.79%E -5.11%K -20.58%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.71%EV -5.90%E -0.621%K -0.694%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -11.94%E -2.71%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-19 22:49 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.34%EV -6.79%E -5.11%K -20.58%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.71%EV -5.90%E -0.621%K -0.694%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -11.94%E -2.71%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-19 22:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.34%EV -6.79%E -5.11%K -20.58%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.71%EV -5.90%E -0.621%K -0.694%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -11.94%E -2.71%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-19 22:50 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.27%EV -6.79%E -5.11%K -20.58%G +0.000% | 9.45I 10.58%NM 9.89%EV -6.39%E -0.676%K -0.757%G +0.000% | 4.71I 21.23%NM 19.84%EV -5.74%E -1.22%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-19 23:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.59%EV -6.79%E -5.11%K -20.58%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV -10.85%E -1.21%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.12%EV -7.94%E -1.73%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-19 22:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -6.79%E -5.11%K -20.58%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.24%EV -10.85%E -1.21%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -9.94%E -2.21%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-19 22:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -6.79%E -5.11%K -20.58%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.24%EV -10.85%E -1.21%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -9.94%E -2.21%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-19 22:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.52%EV -8.89%E -6.84%K -29.65%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.19%EV -10.85%E -1.21%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.30%EV -4.94%E -1.04%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-19 22:56 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.44%EV -7.49%E -5.68%K -23.41%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.19%EV -10.85%E -1.21%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.37%EV -9.94%E -2.21%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-19 22:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.44%EV -7.49%E -5.68%K -23.41%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.19%EV -10.85%E -1.21%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.37%EV -9.94%E -2.21%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-19 22:50 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.22%EV -8.89%E -6.84%K -29.65%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.00%EV -10.85%E -1.21%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.78%EV -13.34%E -3.08%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-19 23:25 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.22%EV -8.89%E -6.84%K -29.65%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.00%EV -10.85%E -1.21%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.78%EV -13.34%E -3.08%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-19 23:24 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.59%EV -7.49%E -5.68%K -23.41%G +0.000% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 10.44%EV -12.83%E -1.46%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.97%EV -7.94%E -1.73%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-19 22:49 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.56%EV -5.39%E -3.99%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.73%EV -15.80%E -1.86%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -15.95%E -3.80%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-19 23:20 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.81%EV -8.89%E -6.84%K -29.65%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.52%EV -15.80%E -1.86%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.66%EV -13.34%E -3.08%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-19 22:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -3.29%E -2.38%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -20.76%E -2.59%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -9.94%E -2.21%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-19 23:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -3.29%E -2.38%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -20.76%E -2.59%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -9.94%E -2.21%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-19 23:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -3.29%E -2.38%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -20.76%E -2.59%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -9.94%E -2.21%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-19 23:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -3.29%E -2.38%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -20.76%E -2.59%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -9.94%E -2.21%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-19 23:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -3.29%E -2.38%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -20.76%E -2.59%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -9.94%E -2.21%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-19 23:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -3.29%E -2.38%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -20.76%E -2.59%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -9.94%E -2.21%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-19 23:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.61%EV -3.29%E -2.38%K -8.65%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -20.76%E -2.59%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -9.94%E -2.21%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-19 23:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.55%EV -6.09%E -4.55%K -17.91%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.48%EV -20.76%E -2.59%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.97%EV -7.94%E -1.73%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-19 22:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.94%EV -4.69%E -3.45%K -13.03%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.14%EV -25.71%E -3.43%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.93%EV -12.94%E -2.98%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-19 23:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.89%EV -6.79%E -5.11%K -20.58%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.04%EV -25.71%E -3.43%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.07%EV -9.94%E -2.21%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-19 22:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.89%EV -6.79%E -5.11%K -20.58%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.04%EV -25.71%E -3.43%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.07%EV -9.94%E -2.21%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-19 22:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.89%EV -6.79%E -5.11%K -20.58%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.04%EV -25.71%E -3.43%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.07%EV -9.94%E -2.21%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-19 22:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.89%EV -6.79%E -5.11%K -20.58%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.04%EV -25.71%E -3.43%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.07%EV -9.94%E -2.21%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-19 22:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 67.10%EV -6.09%E -4.55%K -17.91%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.99%EV -25.71%E -3.43%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.91%EV -13.94%E -3.24%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-08-19 23:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.10%EV -6.79%E -5.11%K -20.58%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.90%EV -25.71%E -3.43%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.00%EV -14.95%E -3.52%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-19 23:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.10%EV -6.79%E -5.11%K -20.58%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.90%EV -25.71%E -3.43%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.00%EV -14.95%E -3.52%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-19 23:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 66.54%EV -7.49%E -5.68%K -23.41%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.55%EV -30.66%E -4.38%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.91%EV -15.95%E -3.80%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-08-19 23:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 66.54%EV -7.49%E -5.68%K -23.41%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.55%EV -30.66%E -4.38%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.91%EV -15.95%E -3.80%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-08-19 23:15 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.83% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.98% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.19% | 0.2% | 2026-08-19 23:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.83% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.98% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.19% | 0.2% | 2026-08-19 23:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.83% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.98% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.19% | 0.2% | 2026-08-19 23:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.83% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.98% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.19% | 0.2% | 2026-08-19 23:26 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.32% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.26% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.43% | 0.9% | 2026-08-19 23:10 |