Language:English
Sport Recife v Ponte Preta
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Sport Recife (Local)
Prediction 80.38%1.24fair odd
EV -5.95%
Edge -5.09%
Kelly -35.00%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.17
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
78.03%80.49%80.30%82.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.101.141.151.1790.91%87.52%86.96%85.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Ponte Preta (Visit)
Prediction 6.52%15.35fair odd
EV +17.28%
Edge +0.960%
Kelly +1.02%
Growth +0.176%
assuming max odds 18.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.14%6.52%6.54%8.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
11.0014.2114.0018.009.09%7.04%7.14%5.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 13.10%7.63fair odd
EV +4.80%
Edge +0.599%
Kelly +0.685%
Growth +0.033%
assuming max odds 8.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.83%13.00%13.16%15.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.756.967.008.0017.39%14.36%14.29%12.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sport Recife (Local): 80.38%; Ponte Preta (Visit): 6.52%; Draw: 13.10%. For Ponte Preta (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 15.35. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 18.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +17.28%.
Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 82.54%EV -9.97%E -8.90%K -83.07%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.14%EV +17.28%E +0.960%K +1.02%G +0.176% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV -1.75%E -0.234%K -0.270%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-09 17:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.03%EV -8.36%E -7.33%K -59.72%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%EV +10.77%E +0.633%K +0.673%G +0.072% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -1.75%E -0.234%K -0.270%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-09 15:20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.03%EV -8.36%E -7.33%K -59.72%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%EV +10.77%E +0.633%K +0.673%G +0.072% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -1.75%E -0.234%K -0.270%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-09 15:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.17%EV -7.56%E -6.57%K -50.38%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.49%EV +10.77%E +0.633%K +0.673%G +0.072% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.34%EV -8.30%E -1.19%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-09 17:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.17%EV -7.56%E -6.57%K -50.38%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.49%EV +10.77%E +0.633%K +0.673%G +0.072% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.34%EV -8.30%E -1.19%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-09 15:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.17%EV -7.56%E -6.57%K -50.38%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.49%EV +10.77%E +0.633%K +0.673%G +0.072% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.34%EV -8.30%E -1.19%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-09 17:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.17%EV -7.56%E -6.57%K -50.38%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.49%EV +10.77%E +0.633%K +0.673%G +0.072% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.34%EV -8.30%E -1.19%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-09 17:40 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.02%EV -9.17%E -8.11%K -70.50%G +0.000% | 16.50I 6.06%NM 5.62%EV +7.51%E +0.455%K +0.484%G +0.036% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -1.75%E -0.234%K -0.270%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-09 17:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.90%EV -7.56%E -6.57%K -50.38%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.81%EV +4.25%E +0.266%K +0.283%G +0.012% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.29%EV -8.30%E -1.19%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-09 15:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.45%EV -6.75%E -5.82%K -42.21%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.22%EV -2.27%E -0.151%K -0.162%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.33%EV -8.30%E -1.19%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-09 07:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.45%EV -6.75%E -5.82%K -42.21%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.22%EV -2.27%E -0.151%K -0.162%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.33%EV -8.30%E -1.19%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-09 07:24 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.45%EV -6.75%E -5.82%K -42.21%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.22%EV -2.27%E -0.151%K -0.162%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.33%EV -8.30%E -1.19%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-09 07:24 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.45%EV -6.75%E -5.82%K -42.21%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.22%EV -2.27%E -0.151%K -0.162%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.33%EV -8.30%E -1.19%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-09 07:24 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.45%EV -6.75%E -5.82%K -42.21%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.22%EV -2.27%E -0.151%K -0.162%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.33%EV -8.30%E -1.19%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-09 07:24 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.45%EV -6.75%E -5.82%K -42.21%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.22%EV -2.27%E -0.151%K -0.162%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.33%EV -8.30%E -1.19%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-09 07:24 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.45%EV -6.75%E -5.82%K -42.21%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.22%EV -2.27%E -0.151%K -0.162%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.33%EV -8.30%E -1.19%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-09 07:24 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.45%EV -6.75%E -5.82%K -42.21%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.22%EV -2.27%E -0.151%K -0.162%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.33%EV -8.30%E -1.19%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-09 16:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.03%EV -5.95%E -5.09%K -35.00%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.09%EV -2.27%E -0.151%K -0.162%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.88%EV -24.68%E -4.29%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-09 15:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 80.99%EV -9.97%E -8.90%K -83.07%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.05%EV -2.27%E -0.151%K -0.162%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.96%EV -8.30%E -1.19%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-09 15:25 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 80.99%EV -9.97%E -8.90%K -83.07%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.05%EV -2.27%E -0.151%K -0.162%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.96%EV -8.30%E -1.19%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-09 15:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 81.13%EV -10.77%E -9.71%K -97.93%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.00%EV -2.27%E -0.151%K -0.162%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.87%EV -8.30%E -1.19%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-09 15:19 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 80.55%EV -8.36%E -7.33%K -59.72%G +0.000% | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.33%EV -5.52%E -0.381%K -0.409%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -8.30%E -1.19%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-09 15:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 80.55%EV -8.36%E -7.33%K -59.72%G +0.000% | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.33%EV -5.52%E -0.381%K -0.409%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -8.30%E -1.19%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-09 15:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 79.84%EV -7.56%E -6.57%K -50.38%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.56%EV -8.78%E -0.627%K -0.675%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.60%EV -11.58%E -1.72%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-08 18:05 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 79.84%EV -7.56%E -6.57%K -50.38%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.56%EV -8.78%E -0.627%K -0.675%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.60%EV -11.58%E -1.72%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-09 16:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 80.12%EV -9.17%E -8.11%K -70.50%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.47%EV -8.78%E -0.627%K -0.675%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.41%EV -11.58%E -1.72%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-09 07:24 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.42%EV -7.56%E -6.57%K -50.38%G +0.000% | 13.96I 7.16%NM 6.71%EV -9.04%E -0.648%K -0.698%G +0.000% | 7.89I 12.67%NM 11.87%EV +3.35%E +0.425%K +0.487%G +0.016% | 6.8% | 2026-09-09 16:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -5.95%E -5.09%K -35.00%G +0.000% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 6.88%EV -12.04%E -0.892%K -0.963%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.76%EV -11.58%E -1.72%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-09 15:35 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.89%EV -5.95%E -5.09%K -35.00%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -15.30%E -1.18%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.83%EV +4.80%E +0.599%K +0.685%G +0.033% | 5.7% | 2026-09-09 09:04 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.53%EV -7.56%E -6.57%K -50.38%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.12%EV -15.30%E -1.18%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.35%EV -1.75%E -0.234%K -0.270%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-09 11:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 79.96%EV -8.36%E -7.33%K -59.72%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.01%EV -15.30%E -1.18%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.02%EV -8.30%E -1.19%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-09 15:15 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 79.17%EV -8.36%E -7.33%K -59.72%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.94%EV -15.30%E -1.18%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.89%EV -14.85%E -2.29%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-09-09 15:50 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 79.48%EV -9.17%E -8.11%K -70.50%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.91%EV -15.30%E -1.18%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 13.61%EV -13.54%E -2.05%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-09-09 15:15 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 79.32%EV -9.17%E -8.11%K -70.50%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.89%EV -15.30%E -1.18%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.79%EV -14.85%E -2.29%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-09 15:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 79.32%EV -9.17%E -8.11%K -70.50%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.89%EV -15.30%E -1.18%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.79%EV -14.85%E -2.29%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-09 15:18 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 79.87%EV -9.97%E -8.90%K -83.07%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.88%EV -15.30%E -1.18%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.25%EV -11.58%E -1.72%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-09 07:24 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 79.46%EV -9.97%E -8.90%K -83.07%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.85%EV -15.30%E -1.18%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.69%EV -14.85%E -2.29%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-09-09 07:24 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 79.75%EV -11.58%E -10.52%K -115.77%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.75%EV -15.30%E -1.18%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.50%EV -14.85%E -2.29%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-09-09 07:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 79.75%EV -11.58%E -10.52%K -115.77%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.75%EV -15.30%E -1.18%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.50%EV -14.85%E -2.29%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-09-09 07:24 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 80.19%EV -8.36%E -7.33%K -59.72%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.62%EV -21.81%E -1.82%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.19%EV -1.75%E -0.234%K -0.270%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-09 16:13 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 80.19%EV -8.36%E -7.33%K -59.72%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.62%EV -21.81%E -1.82%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.19%EV -1.75%E -0.234%K -0.270%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-09 16:10 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 78.57%EV -7.56%E -6.57%K -50.38%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.53%EV -21.81%E -1.82%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -14.85%E -2.29%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-09 15:16 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 78.57%EV -7.56%E -6.57%K -50.38%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.53%EV -21.81%E -1.82%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -14.85%E -2.29%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-09 15:16 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 78.57%EV -7.56%E -6.57%K -50.38%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.53%EV -21.81%E -1.82%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -14.85%E -2.29%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-09 15:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 78.57%EV -7.56%E -6.57%K -50.38%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.53%EV -21.81%E -1.82%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -14.85%E -2.29%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-09 15:15 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 79.51%EV -8.36%E -7.33%K -59.72%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.24%EV -28.33%E -2.58%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 12.25%EV -3.06%E -0.414%K -0.479%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-09 16:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 79.51%EV -8.36%E -7.33%K -59.72%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.24%EV -28.33%E -2.58%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 12.25%EV -3.06%E -0.414%K -0.479%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-09 16:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.21I 82.64%NM 81.99% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 6.20% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.81% | 0.8% | 2026-09-09 15:26 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 81.95% | 15.50I 6.45%NM 6.34% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.71% | 1.7% | 2026-09-09 17:41 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 81.95% | 15.50I 6.45%NM 6.34% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.71% | 1.7% | 2026-09-09 17:41 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.19I 84.03%NM 82.07% | 15.50I 6.45%NM 6.30% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.63% | 2.4% | 2026-09-09 17:41 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 81.19% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.22% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.60% | 2.6% | 2026-09-09 17:41 |