Idioma:Español
Sport Recife v Ponte Preta
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Sport Recife (Local)
Predicción 80.38%1.24momio equitativo
EV -5.95%
Ventaja -5.09%
Kelly -35.00%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.17
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
78.03%80.49%80.30%82.54%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.101.141.151.1790.91%87.52%86.96%85.47%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Ponte Preta (Visitante)
Predicción 6.52%15.35momio equitativo
EV +17.28%
Ventaja +0.960%
Kelly +1.02%
Crecimiento +0.176%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 18.00
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
5.14%6.52%6.54%8.24%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
11.0014.2114.0018.009.09%7.04%7.14%5.56%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 13.10%7.63momio equitativo
EV +4.80%
Ventaja +0.599%
Kelly +0.685%
Crecimiento +0.033%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 8.00
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
11.83%13.00%13.16%15.88%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
5.756.967.008.0017.39%14.36%14.29%12.50%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Sport Recife (Local): 80.38%; Ponte Preta (Visitante): 6.52%; Empate: 13.10%. Para Ponte Preta (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 15.35. 9 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 18.00, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +17.28%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (47 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 82.54%EV -9.97%E -8.90%K -83.07%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.14%EV +17.28%E +0.960%K +1.02%G +0.176% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV -1.75%E -0.234%K -0.270%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-09 17:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.03%EV -8.36%E -7.33%K -59.72%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%EV +10.77%E +0.633%K +0.673%G +0.072% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -1.75%E -0.234%K -0.270%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-09 15:20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.03%EV -8.36%E -7.33%K -59.72%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%EV +10.77%E +0.633%K +0.673%G +0.072% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -1.75%E -0.234%K -0.270%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-09 15:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.17%EV -7.56%E -6.57%K -50.38%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.49%EV +10.77%E +0.633%K +0.673%G +0.072% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.34%EV -8.30%E -1.19%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-09 17:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.17%EV -7.56%E -6.57%K -50.38%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.49%EV +10.77%E +0.633%K +0.673%G +0.072% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.34%EV -8.30%E -1.19%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-09 15:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.17%EV -7.56%E -6.57%K -50.38%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.49%EV +10.77%E +0.633%K +0.673%G +0.072% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.34%EV -8.30%E -1.19%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-09 17:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.17%EV -7.56%E -6.57%K -50.38%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.49%EV +10.77%E +0.633%K +0.673%G +0.072% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.34%EV -8.30%E -1.19%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-09 17:40 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.02%EV -9.17%E -8.11%K -70.50%G +0.000% | 16.50I 6.06%NM 5.62%EV +7.51%E +0.455%K +0.484%G +0.036% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -1.75%E -0.234%K -0.270%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-09 17:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.90%EV -7.56%E -6.57%K -50.38%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.81%EV +4.25%E +0.266%K +0.283%G +0.012% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.29%EV -8.30%E -1.19%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-09 15:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.45%EV -6.75%E -5.82%K -42.21%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.22%EV -2.27%E -0.151%K -0.162%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.33%EV -8.30%E -1.19%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-09 07:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.45%EV -6.75%E -5.82%K -42.21%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.22%EV -2.27%E -0.151%K -0.162%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.33%EV -8.30%E -1.19%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-09 07:24 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.45%EV -6.75%E -5.82%K -42.21%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.22%EV -2.27%E -0.151%K -0.162%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.33%EV -8.30%E -1.19%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-09 07:24 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.45%EV -6.75%E -5.82%K -42.21%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.22%EV -2.27%E -0.151%K -0.162%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.33%EV -8.30%E -1.19%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-09 07:24 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.45%EV -6.75%E -5.82%K -42.21%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.22%EV -2.27%E -0.151%K -0.162%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.33%EV -8.30%E -1.19%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-09 07:24 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.45%EV -6.75%E -5.82%K -42.21%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.22%EV -2.27%E -0.151%K -0.162%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.33%EV -8.30%E -1.19%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-09 07:24 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.45%EV -6.75%E -5.82%K -42.21%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.22%EV -2.27%E -0.151%K -0.162%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.33%EV -8.30%E -1.19%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-09 07:24 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.45%EV -6.75%E -5.82%K -42.21%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.22%EV -2.27%E -0.151%K -0.162%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.33%EV -8.30%E -1.19%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-09 16:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.03%EV -5.95%E -5.09%K -35.00%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.09%EV -2.27%E -0.151%K -0.162%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.88%EV -24.68%E -4.29%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-09 15:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 80.99%EV -9.97%E -8.90%K -83.07%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.05%EV -2.27%E -0.151%K -0.162%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.96%EV -8.30%E -1.19%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-09 15:25 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 80.99%EV -9.97%E -8.90%K -83.07%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.05%EV -2.27%E -0.151%K -0.162%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.96%EV -8.30%E -1.19%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-09 15:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 81.13%EV -10.77%E -9.71%K -97.93%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.00%EV -2.27%E -0.151%K -0.162%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.87%EV -8.30%E -1.19%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-09 15:19 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 80.55%EV -8.36%E -7.33%K -59.72%G +0.000% | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.33%EV -5.52%E -0.381%K -0.409%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -8.30%E -1.19%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-09 15:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 80.55%EV -8.36%E -7.33%K -59.72%G +0.000% | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.33%EV -5.52%E -0.381%K -0.409%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -8.30%E -1.19%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-09 15:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 79.84%EV -7.56%E -6.57%K -50.38%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.56%EV -8.78%E -0.627%K -0.675%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.60%EV -11.58%E -1.72%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-08 18:05 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 79.84%EV -7.56%E -6.57%K -50.38%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.56%EV -8.78%E -0.627%K -0.675%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.60%EV -11.58%E -1.72%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-09 16:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 80.12%EV -9.17%E -8.11%K -70.50%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.47%EV -8.78%E -0.627%K -0.675%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.41%EV -11.58%E -1.72%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-09 07:24 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.42%EV -7.56%E -6.57%K -50.38%G +0.000% | 13.96I 7.16%NM 6.71%EV -9.04%E -0.648%K -0.698%G +0.000% | 7.89I 12.67%NM 11.87%EV +3.35%E +0.425%K +0.487%G +0.016% | 6.8% | 2026-09-09 16:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -5.95%E -5.09%K -35.00%G +0.000% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 6.88%EV -12.04%E -0.892%K -0.963%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.76%EV -11.58%E -1.72%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-09 15:35 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.89%EV -5.95%E -5.09%K -35.00%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -15.30%E -1.18%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.83%EV +4.80%E +0.599%K +0.685%G +0.033% | 5.7% | 2026-09-09 09:04 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.53%EV -7.56%E -6.57%K -50.38%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.12%EV -15.30%E -1.18%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.35%EV -1.75%E -0.234%K -0.270%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-09 11:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 79.96%EV -8.36%E -7.33%K -59.72%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.01%EV -15.30%E -1.18%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.02%EV -8.30%E -1.19%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-09 15:15 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 79.17%EV -8.36%E -7.33%K -59.72%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.94%EV -15.30%E -1.18%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.89%EV -14.85%E -2.29%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-09-09 15:50 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 79.48%EV -9.17%E -8.11%K -70.50%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.91%EV -15.30%E -1.18%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 13.61%EV -13.54%E -2.05%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-09-09 15:15 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 79.32%EV -9.17%E -8.11%K -70.50%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.89%EV -15.30%E -1.18%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.79%EV -14.85%E -2.29%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-09 15:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 79.32%EV -9.17%E -8.11%K -70.50%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.89%EV -15.30%E -1.18%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.79%EV -14.85%E -2.29%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-09 15:18 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 79.87%EV -9.97%E -8.90%K -83.07%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.88%EV -15.30%E -1.18%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.25%EV -11.58%E -1.72%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-09 07:24 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 79.46%EV -9.97%E -8.90%K -83.07%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.85%EV -15.30%E -1.18%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.69%EV -14.85%E -2.29%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-09-09 07:24 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 79.75%EV -11.58%E -10.52%K -115.77%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.75%EV -15.30%E -1.18%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.50%EV -14.85%E -2.29%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-09-09 07:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 79.75%EV -11.58%E -10.52%K -115.77%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.75%EV -15.30%E -1.18%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.50%EV -14.85%E -2.29%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-09-09 07:24 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 80.19%EV -8.36%E -7.33%K -59.72%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.62%EV -21.81%E -1.82%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.19%EV -1.75%E -0.234%K -0.270%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-09 16:13 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 80.19%EV -8.36%E -7.33%K -59.72%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.62%EV -21.81%E -1.82%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.19%EV -1.75%E -0.234%K -0.270%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-09 16:10 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 78.57%EV -7.56%E -6.57%K -50.38%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.53%EV -21.81%E -1.82%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -14.85%E -2.29%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-09 15:16 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 78.57%EV -7.56%E -6.57%K -50.38%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.53%EV -21.81%E -1.82%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -14.85%E -2.29%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-09 15:16 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 78.57%EV -7.56%E -6.57%K -50.38%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.53%EV -21.81%E -1.82%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -14.85%E -2.29%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-09 15:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 78.57%EV -7.56%E -6.57%K -50.38%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.53%EV -21.81%E -1.82%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -14.85%E -2.29%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-09 15:15 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 79.51%EV -8.36%E -7.33%K -59.72%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.24%EV -28.33%E -2.58%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 12.25%EV -3.06%E -0.414%K -0.479%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-09 16:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 79.51%EV -8.36%E -7.33%K -59.72%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.24%EV -28.33%E -2.58%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 12.25%EV -3.06%E -0.414%K -0.479%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-09 16:00 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.21I 82.64%NM 81.99% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 6.20% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.81% | 0.8% | 2026-09-09 15:26 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 81.95% | 15.50I 6.45%NM 6.34% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.71% | 1.7% | 2026-09-09 17:41 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 81.95% | 15.50I 6.45%NM 6.34% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.71% | 1.7% | 2026-09-09 17:41 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.19I 84.03%NM 82.07% | 15.50I 6.45%NM 6.30% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.63% | 2.4% | 2026-09-09 17:41 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 81.19% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.22% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.60% | 2.6% | 2026-09-09 17:41 |