Language:English
São Bernardo v Nautico PE
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
São Bernardo (Local)
Prediction 44.92%2.23fair odd
EV -2.97%
Edge -1.37%
Kelly -2.56%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.16
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.58%44.86%44.94%46.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.072.072.1651.28%48.36%48.31%46.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Nautico PE (Visit)
Prediction 26.67%3.75fair odd
EV +0.819%
Edge +0.217%
Kelly +0.295%
Growth +0.002%
assuming max odds 3.78
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.93%26.71%26.71%29.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.383.303.7832.79%29.62%30.30%26.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 28.41%3.52fair odd
EV -2.56%
Edge -0.748%
Kelly -1.06%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.43
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.93%28.42%28.35%29.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.213.233.4332.79%31.11%31.01%29.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: São Bernardo (Local): 44.92%; Nautico PE (Visit): 26.67%; Draw: 28.41%. For Nautico PE (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.75. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.78, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.819%.
Sportsbook Odds (44 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 46.49%EV -7.01%E -3.39%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 3.78I 26.46%NM 25.46%EV +0.819%E +0.217%K +0.295%G +0.002% | 3.43I 29.15%NM 28.06%EV -2.56%E -0.748%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-23 18:44 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.74%EV -10.16%E -5.08%K -10.16%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV +0.019%E +0.005%K +0.007%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -6.26%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-23 18:54 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.09%EV -8.36%E -4.10%K -8.04%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -1.31%E -0.355%K -0.487%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.49%EV -6.26%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-23 18:44 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.09%EV -8.36%E -4.10%K -8.04%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -1.31%E -0.355%K -0.487%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.49%EV -6.26%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-23 18:44 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.59%EV -10.16%E -5.08%K -10.16%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -1.31%E -0.355%K -0.487%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -6.26%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-23 18:54 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.24%EV -5.67%E -2.70%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.39%EV -3.98%E -1.11%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.36%EV -4.84%E -1.44%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-23 18:44 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -7.91%E -3.86%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -3.98%E -1.11%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -6.26%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-23 18:44 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -10.16%E -5.08%K -10.16%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -3.98%E -1.11%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -6.26%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-23 18:44 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.06%EV -10.16%E -5.08%K -10.16%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.59%EV -3.98%E -1.11%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -7.68%E -2.36%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-23 18:48 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.49%EV -12.40%E -6.36%K -13.06%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.18%EV -3.98%E -1.11%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.33%EV -9.10%E -2.84%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-23 18:54 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.49%EV -12.40%E -6.36%K -13.06%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.18%EV -3.98%E -1.11%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.33%EV -9.10%E -2.84%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-23 18:54 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.03I 49.26%NM 45.67%EV -8.81%E -4.34%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 3.58I 27.93%NM 25.90%EV -4.52%E -1.26%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.26I 30.67%NM 28.44%EV -7.39%E -2.27%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-23 18:54 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.95%EV -6.56%E -3.16%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -6.65%E -1.90%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -6.26%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-23 18:54 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.17%EV -5.67%E -2.70%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -9.32%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -7.68%E -2.36%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-23 18:44 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -7.91%E -3.86%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -9.32%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -6.26%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-23 18:44 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.21%EV -6.56%E -3.16%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.05%EV -9.32%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.74%EV -9.10%E -2.84%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-23 18:44 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.21%EV -6.56%E -3.16%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.05%EV -9.32%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.74%EV -9.10%E -2.84%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-23 18:44 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.77%EV -7.91%E -3.86%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -9.32%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -7.68%E -2.36%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-23 18:54 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.18%EV -10.16%E -5.08%K -10.16%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -9.32%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -9.10%E -2.84%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-23 18:54 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 44.73%EV -9.26%E -4.58%K -9.08%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -9.32%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.69%EV -10.52%E -3.34%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-23 18:44 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.04%EV -6.56%E -3.16%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV -10.65%E -3.18%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -9.10%E -2.84%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-23 18:44 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -5.67%E -2.70%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -11.98%E -3.63%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -9.10%E -2.84%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-23 18:35 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -5.67%E -2.70%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -11.98%E -3.63%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -11.94%E -3.85%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-23 18:44 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -5.67%E -2.70%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -11.98%E -3.63%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -11.94%E -3.85%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-23 18:44 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -5.67%E -2.70%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -11.98%E -3.63%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -11.94%E -3.85%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-23 18:44 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -5.67%E -2.70%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -11.98%E -3.63%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -11.94%E -3.85%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-23 18:44 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.05%EV -12.40%E -6.36%K -13.06%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.62%EV -11.98%E -3.63%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.34%EV -11.94%E -3.85%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-08-23 18:39 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.12%EV -2.97%E -1.37%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -13.32%E -4.10%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -6.26%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-23 18:54 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.12%EV -2.97%E -1.37%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -13.32%E -4.10%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -6.26%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-23 18:54 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.12%EV -2.97%E -1.37%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -13.32%E -4.10%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -6.26%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-23 18:54 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.12%EV -2.97%E -1.37%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -13.32%E -4.10%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -6.26%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-23 18:54 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.12%EV -2.97%E -1.37%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -13.32%E -4.10%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -6.26%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-23 18:54 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.12%EV -2.97%E -1.37%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -13.32%E -4.10%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -6.26%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-23 18:54 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.12%EV -2.97%E -1.37%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -13.32%E -4.10%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -6.26%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-23 18:53 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -7.91%E -3.86%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -13.32%E -4.10%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -11.94%E -3.85%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-23 18:34 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -7.91%E -3.86%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -13.32%E -4.10%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -11.94%E -3.85%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-23 18:34 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -7.91%E -3.86%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -13.32%E -4.10%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -11.94%E -3.85%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-23 18:34 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -7.91%E -3.86%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -13.32%E -4.10%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -11.94%E -3.85%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-23 18:34 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.09%EV -6.56%E -3.16%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.45%EV -15.98%E -5.07%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.45%EV -10.52%E -3.34%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-23 18:54 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 42.58%EV -3.87%E -1.81%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.39%EV -17.32%E -5.59%K -8.25%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.03%EV -7.68%E -2.36%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-23 18:14 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 42.70%EV -6.56%E -3.16%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.65%EV -17.32%E -5.59%K -8.25%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.65%EV -11.94%E -3.85%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-08-23 18:54 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 42.82%EV -7.01%E -3.39%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.59%EV -17.32%E -5.59%K -8.25%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.59%EV -11.94%E -3.85%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-08-23 18:54 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 42.78%EV -8.36%E -4.10%K -8.04%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.61%EV -18.65%E -6.12%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.61%EV -13.36%E -4.38%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 14.6% | 2026-08-23 18:54 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 42.78%EV -8.36%E -4.10%K -8.04%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.61%EV -18.65%E -6.12%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.61%EV -13.36%E -4.38%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 14.6% | 2026-08-23 18:54 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.12I 47.17%NM 47.01% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.92% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 28.07% | 0.3% | 2026-08-23 18:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 47.25% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.80% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.95% | 0.8% | 2026-08-23 18:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 47.25% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.80% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.95% | 0.8% | 2026-08-23 18:49 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 47.25% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.80% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.95% | 0.8% | 2026-08-23 18:54 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.12I 47.17%NM 46.71% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.39% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.90% | 1.0% | 2026-08-23 18:54 |