Idioma:Español
São Bernardo v Nautico PE
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
São Bernardo (Local)
Predicción 44.92%2.23momio equitativo
EV -2.97%
Ventaja -1.37%
Kelly -2.56%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.16
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
42.58%44.86%44.94%46.74%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.952.072.072.1651.28%48.36%48.31%46.30%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Nautico PE (Visitante)
Predicción 26.67%3.75momio equitativo
EV +0.819%
Ventaja +0.217%
Kelly +0.295%
Crecimiento +0.002%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.78
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.93%26.71%26.71%29.39%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.053.383.303.7832.79%29.62%30.30%26.46%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 28.41%3.52momio equitativo
EV -2.56%
Ventaja -0.748%
Kelly -1.06%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.43
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.93%28.42%28.35%29.28%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.053.213.233.4332.79%31.11%31.01%29.15%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: São Bernardo (Local): 44.92%; Nautico PE (Visitante): 26.67%; Empate: 28.41%. Para Nautico PE (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.75. 2 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.78, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.819%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (44 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 46.49%EV -7.01%E -3.39%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 3.78I 26.46%NM 25.46%EV +0.819%E +0.217%K +0.295%G +0.002% | 3.43I 29.15%NM 28.06%EV -2.56%E -0.748%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-23 18:44 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.74%EV -10.16%E -5.08%K -10.16%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV +0.019%E +0.005%K +0.007%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -6.26%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-23 18:54 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.09%EV -8.36%E -4.10%K -8.04%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -1.31%E -0.355%K -0.487%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.49%EV -6.26%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-23 18:44 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.09%EV -8.36%E -4.10%K -8.04%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -1.31%E -0.355%K -0.487%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.49%EV -6.26%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-23 18:44 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.59%EV -10.16%E -5.08%K -10.16%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -1.31%E -0.355%K -0.487%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -6.26%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-23 18:54 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.24%EV -5.67%E -2.70%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.39%EV -3.98%E -1.11%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.36%EV -4.84%E -1.44%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-23 18:44 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -7.91%E -3.86%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -3.98%E -1.11%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -6.26%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-23 18:44 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -10.16%E -5.08%K -10.16%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -3.98%E -1.11%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -6.26%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-23 18:44 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.06%EV -10.16%E -5.08%K -10.16%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.59%EV -3.98%E -1.11%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -7.68%E -2.36%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-23 18:48 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.49%EV -12.40%E -6.36%K -13.06%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.18%EV -3.98%E -1.11%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.33%EV -9.10%E -2.84%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-23 18:54 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.49%EV -12.40%E -6.36%K -13.06%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.18%EV -3.98%E -1.11%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.33%EV -9.10%E -2.84%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-23 18:54 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.03I 49.26%NM 45.67%EV -8.81%E -4.34%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 3.58I 27.93%NM 25.90%EV -4.52%E -1.26%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.26I 30.67%NM 28.44%EV -7.39%E -2.27%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-23 18:54 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.95%EV -6.56%E -3.16%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -6.65%E -1.90%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -6.26%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-23 18:54 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.17%EV -5.67%E -2.70%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -9.32%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -7.68%E -2.36%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-23 18:44 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -7.91%E -3.86%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -9.32%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -6.26%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-23 18:44 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.21%EV -6.56%E -3.16%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.05%EV -9.32%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.74%EV -9.10%E -2.84%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-23 18:44 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.21%EV -6.56%E -3.16%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.05%EV -9.32%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.74%EV -9.10%E -2.84%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-23 18:44 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.77%EV -7.91%E -3.86%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -9.32%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -7.68%E -2.36%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-23 18:54 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.18%EV -10.16%E -5.08%K -10.16%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -9.32%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -9.10%E -2.84%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-23 18:54 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 44.73%EV -9.26%E -4.58%K -9.08%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -9.32%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.69%EV -10.52%E -3.34%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-23 18:44 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.04%EV -6.56%E -3.16%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV -10.65%E -3.18%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -9.10%E -2.84%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-23 18:44 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -5.67%E -2.70%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -11.98%E -3.63%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -9.10%E -2.84%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-23 18:35 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -5.67%E -2.70%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -11.98%E -3.63%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -11.94%E -3.85%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-23 18:44 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -5.67%E -2.70%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -11.98%E -3.63%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -11.94%E -3.85%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-23 18:44 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -5.67%E -2.70%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -11.98%E -3.63%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -11.94%E -3.85%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-23 18:44 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -5.67%E -2.70%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -11.98%E -3.63%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -11.94%E -3.85%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-23 18:44 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.05%EV -12.40%E -6.36%K -13.06%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.62%EV -11.98%E -3.63%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.34%EV -11.94%E -3.85%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-08-23 18:39 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.12%EV -2.97%E -1.37%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -13.32%E -4.10%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -6.26%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-23 18:54 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.12%EV -2.97%E -1.37%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -13.32%E -4.10%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -6.26%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-23 18:54 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.12%EV -2.97%E -1.37%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -13.32%E -4.10%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -6.26%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-23 18:54 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.12%EV -2.97%E -1.37%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -13.32%E -4.10%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -6.26%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-23 18:54 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.12%EV -2.97%E -1.37%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -13.32%E -4.10%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -6.26%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-23 18:54 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.12%EV -2.97%E -1.37%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -13.32%E -4.10%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -6.26%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-23 18:54 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.12%EV -2.97%E -1.37%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -13.32%E -4.10%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -6.26%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-23 18:53 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -7.91%E -3.86%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -13.32%E -4.10%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -11.94%E -3.85%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-23 18:34 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -7.91%E -3.86%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -13.32%E -4.10%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -11.94%E -3.85%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-23 18:34 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -7.91%E -3.86%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -13.32%E -4.10%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -11.94%E -3.85%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-23 18:34 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -7.91%E -3.86%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -13.32%E -4.10%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -11.94%E -3.85%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-23 18:34 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.09%EV -6.56%E -3.16%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.45%EV -15.98%E -5.07%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.45%EV -10.52%E -3.34%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-23 18:54 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 42.58%EV -3.87%E -1.81%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.39%EV -17.32%E -5.59%K -8.25%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.03%EV -7.68%E -2.36%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-23 18:14 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 42.70%EV -6.56%E -3.16%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.65%EV -17.32%E -5.59%K -8.25%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.65%EV -11.94%E -3.85%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-08-23 18:54 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 42.82%EV -7.01%E -3.39%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.59%EV -17.32%E -5.59%K -8.25%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.59%EV -11.94%E -3.85%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-08-23 18:54 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 42.78%EV -8.36%E -4.10%K -8.04%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.61%EV -18.65%E -6.12%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.61%EV -13.36%E -4.38%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 14.6% | 2026-08-23 18:54 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 42.78%EV -8.36%E -4.10%K -8.04%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.61%EV -18.65%E -6.12%K -9.10%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.61%EV -13.36%E -4.38%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 14.6% | 2026-08-23 18:54 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.12I 47.17%NM 47.01% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.92% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 28.07% | 0.3% | 2026-08-23 18:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 47.25% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.80% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.95% | 0.8% | 2026-08-23 18:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 47.25% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.80% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.95% | 0.8% | 2026-08-23 18:49 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 47.25% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.80% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.95% | 0.8% | 2026-08-23 18:54 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.12I 47.17%NM 46.71% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.39% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.90% | 1.0% | 2026-08-23 18:54 |