Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

São Bernardo v Nautico PE

Início: 2026-08-23 19:00 UTC

Final: São Bernardo 1–1 Nautico PE

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

44 casas de apostas (15 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

São Bernardo (Local)

Previsão 44.92%2.23odd justa
EV -2.97%
Vantagem -1.37%
Kelly -2.56%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.16

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
42.58%44.86%44.94%46.74%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.952.072.072.1651.28%48.36%48.31%46.30%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nautico PE (Visitante)

Previsão 26.67%3.75odd justa
EV +0.819%
Vantagem +0.217%
Kelly +0.295%
Crescimento +0.002%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.78

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
24.93%26.71%26.71%29.39%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.053.383.303.7832.79%29.62%30.30%26.46%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 28.41%3.52odd justa
EV -2.56%
Vantagem -0.748%
Kelly -1.06%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.43

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
27.93%28.42%28.35%29.28%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.053.213.233.4332.79%31.11%31.01%29.15%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: São Bernardo (Local): 44.92%; Nautico PE (Visitante): 26.67%; Empate: 28.41%. Para Nautico PE (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.75. 2 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 3.78, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +0.819%.

Odds das casas de apostas (44 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
Pinnacle🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 46.49%EV -7.01%E -3.39%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.46%EV +0.819%E +0.217%K +0.295%G +0.002%3.43I 29.15%NM 28.06%EV -2.56%E -0.748%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-23 18:44
SportsBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.74%EV -10.16%E -5.08%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV +0.019%E +0.005%K +0.007%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -6.26%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-23 18:54
LowVig.ag🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.09%EV -8.36%E -4.10%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -1.31%E -0.355%K -0.487%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.49%EV -6.26%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-23 18:44
BetOnline.ag🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.09%EV -8.36%E -4.10%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -1.31%E -0.355%K -0.487%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.49%EV -6.26%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-23 18:44
FanDuel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.59%EV -10.16%E -5.08%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -1.31%E -0.355%K -0.487%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -6.26%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-23 18:54
DraftKings🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.24%EV -5.67%E -2.70%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.39%EV -3.98%E -1.11%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.36%EV -4.84%E -1.44%K -2.06%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-23 18:44
BetUS🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -7.91%E -3.86%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -3.98%E -1.11%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -6.26%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-23 18:44
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -10.16%E -5.08%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -3.98%E -1.11%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -6.26%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-23 18:44
Bovada🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.06%EV -10.16%E -5.08%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.59%EV -3.98%E -1.11%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -7.68%E -2.36%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-23 18:48
Paddy Power🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.49%EV -12.40%E -6.36%K -13.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.18%EV -3.98%E -1.11%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.33%EV -9.10%E -2.84%K -4.14%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-23 18:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.49%EV -12.40%E -6.36%K -13.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.18%EV -3.98%E -1.11%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.33%EV -9.10%E -2.84%K -4.14%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-23 18:54
Marathon Bet🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 45.67%EV -8.81%E -4.34%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 25.90%EV -4.52%E -1.26%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 28.44%EV -7.39%E -2.27%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-23 18:54
Coolbet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.95%EV -6.56%E -3.16%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -6.65%E -1.90%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -6.26%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-23 18:54
Unibet (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.17%EV -5.67%E -2.70%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -9.32%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -7.68%E -2.36%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-23 18:44
LeoVegas🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -7.91%E -3.86%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -9.32%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -6.26%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-23 18:44
NordicBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.21%EV -6.56%E -3.16%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.05%EV -9.32%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.74%EV -9.10%E -2.84%K -4.14%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-23 18:44
Betsson🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.21%EV -6.56%E -3.16%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.05%EV -9.32%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.74%EV -9.10%E -2.84%K -4.14%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-23 18:44
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.77%EV -7.91%E -3.86%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -9.32%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -7.68%E -2.36%K -3.41%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-23 18:54
betfred_uk🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.18%EV -10.16%E -5.08%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -9.32%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -9.10%E -2.84%K -4.14%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-23 18:54
PlayUp🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.73%EV -9.26%E -4.58%K -9.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -9.32%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.69%EV -10.52%E -3.34%K -4.89%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-23 18:44
Codere (IT)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.04%EV -6.56%E -3.16%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV -10.65%E -3.18%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -9.10%E -2.84%K -4.14%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-23 18:44
BetMGM🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -5.67%E -2.70%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -11.98%E -3.63%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -9.10%E -2.84%K -4.14%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-23 18:35
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -5.67%E -2.70%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -11.98%E -3.63%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -11.94%E -3.85%K -5.69%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-23 18:44
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -5.67%E -2.70%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -11.98%E -3.63%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -11.94%E -3.85%K -5.69%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-23 18:44
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -5.67%E -2.70%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -11.98%E -3.63%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -11.94%E -3.85%K -5.69%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-23 18:44
888sport (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -5.67%E -2.70%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -11.98%E -3.63%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -11.94%E -3.85%K -5.69%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-23 18:44
BoyleSports🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.05%EV -12.40%E -6.36%K -13.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.62%EV -11.98%E -3.63%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.34%EV -11.94%E -3.85%K -5.69%G +0.000%13.8%2026-08-23 18:39
Unibet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.12%EV -2.97%E -1.37%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -13.32%E -4.10%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -6.26%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-23 18:54
Casumo🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.12%EV -2.97%E -1.37%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -13.32%E -4.10%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -6.26%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-23 18:54
Unibet (SE)🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.12%EV -2.97%E -1.37%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -13.32%E -4.10%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -6.26%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-23 18:54
Unibet (NL)🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.12%EV -2.97%E -1.37%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -13.32%E -4.10%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -6.26%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-23 18:54
ATG (SE)🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.12%EV -2.97%E -1.37%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -13.32%E -4.10%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -6.26%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-23 18:54
Svenska Spel🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.12%EV -2.97%E -1.37%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -13.32%E -4.10%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -6.26%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-23 18:54
betPARX🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.12%EV -2.97%E -1.37%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -13.32%E -4.10%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -6.26%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-23 18:53
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -7.91%E -3.86%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -13.32%E -4.10%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -11.94%E -3.85%K -5.69%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-23 18:34
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -7.91%E -3.86%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -13.32%E -4.10%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -11.94%E -3.85%K -5.69%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-23 18:34
Neds🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -7.91%E -3.86%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -13.32%E -4.10%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -11.94%E -3.85%K -5.69%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-23 18:34
Coral🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -7.91%E -3.86%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -13.32%E -4.10%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -11.94%E -3.85%K -5.69%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-23 18:34
Grosvenor🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.09%EV -6.56%E -3.16%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.45%EV -15.98%E -5.07%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.45%EV -10.52%E -3.34%K -4.89%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-23 18:54
BetRivers🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.58%EV -3.87%E -1.81%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.39%EV -17.32%E -5.59%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.03%EV -7.68%E -2.36%K -3.41%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-23 18:14
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 42.70%EV -6.56%E -3.16%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.65%EV -17.32%E -5.59%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.65%EV -11.94%E -3.85%K -5.69%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-23 18:54
TABtouch🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 42.82%EV -7.01%E -3.39%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.59%EV -17.32%E -5.59%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.59%EV -11.94%E -3.85%K -5.69%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-23 18:54
Virgin Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 42.78%EV -8.36%E -4.10%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.61%EV -18.65%E -6.12%K -9.10%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.61%EV -13.36%E -4.38%K -6.52%G +0.000%14.6%2026-08-23 18:54
LiveScore Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 42.78%EV -8.36%E -4.10%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.61%EV -18.65%E -6.12%K -9.10%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.61%EV -13.36%E -4.38%K -6.52%G +0.000%14.6%2026-08-23 18:54
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook◎2.12I 47.17%NM 47.01%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.92%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.07%0.3%2026-08-23 18:54
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.10I 47.62%NM 47.25%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.80%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.95%0.8%2026-08-23 18:54
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.10I 47.62%NM 47.25%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.80%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.95%0.8%2026-08-23 18:49
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.10I 47.62%NM 47.25%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.80%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.95%0.8%2026-08-23 18:54
Smarkets◎2.12I 47.17%NM 46.71%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.39%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.90%1.0%2026-08-23 18:54