Language:English
São Bernardo v América Mineiro
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
São Bernardo (Local)
Prediction 42.25%2.37fair odd
EV -3.67%
Edge -1.61%
Kelly -2.87%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.28
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.97%42.62%42.11%45.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.972.132.132.2850.76%46.91%47.06%43.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
América Mineiro (Visit)
Prediction 27.20%3.68fair odd
EV +0.652%
Edge +0.176%
Kelly +0.241%
Growth +0.002%
assuming max odds 3.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.37%26.93%27.24%28.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.483.453.7032.26%28.75%28.99%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 30.55%3.27fair odd
EV -2.25%
Edge -0.702%
Kelly -1.02%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.91%30.45%30.66%31.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.053.053.2036.36%32.80%32.79%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: São Bernardo (Local): 42.25%; América Mineiro (Visit): 27.20%; Draw: 30.55%. For América Mineiro (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.68. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.652%.
Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casumo🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.20%EV -12.12%E -5.83%K -11.23%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV +0.652%E +0.176%K +0.241%G +0.002% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.38%EV -2.25%E -0.702%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-16 18:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.20%EV -12.12%E -5.83%K -11.23%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV +0.652%E +0.176%K +0.241%G +0.002% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.38%EV -2.25%E -0.702%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-16 18:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.20%EV -12.12%E -5.83%K -11.23%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV +0.652%E +0.176%K +0.241%G +0.002% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.38%EV -2.25%E -0.702%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-16 18:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.20%EV -12.12%E -5.83%K -11.23%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV +0.652%E +0.176%K +0.241%G +0.002% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.38%EV -2.25%E -0.702%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-16 18:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.20%EV -12.12%E -5.83%K -11.23%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV +0.652%E +0.176%K +0.241%G +0.002% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.38%EV -2.25%E -0.702%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-16 18:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.20%EV -12.12%E -5.83%K -11.23%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV +0.652%E +0.176%K +0.241%G +0.002% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.38%EV -2.25%E -0.702%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-16 18:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.20%EV -12.12%E -5.83%K -11.23%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV +0.652%E +0.176%K +0.241%G +0.002% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.38%EV -2.25%E -0.702%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-16 18:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.08%EV -15.50%E -7.75%K -15.50%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.37%EV +0.652%E +0.176%K +0.241%G +0.002% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.56%EV -9.88%E -3.35%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-16 18:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.29%EV -12.97%E -6.30%K -12.23%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.56%EV -0.709%E -0.194%K -0.267%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.15%EV -2.25%E -0.702%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-16 18:31 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -7.05%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -2.07%E -0.575%K -0.796%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -8.35%E -2.78%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-16 18:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -7.05%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -2.07%E -0.575%K -0.796%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -8.35%E -2.78%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-16 18:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.16%EV -13.81%E -6.77%K -13.28%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.59%EV -2.07%E -0.575%K -0.796%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.25%EV -3.77%E -1.20%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-16 18:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.41%EV -14.66%E -7.26%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -2.07%E -0.575%K -0.796%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.12%EV -3.77%E -1.20%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-16 18:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.26I 44.25%NM 42.52%EV -4.52%E -2.00%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.59I 27.86%NM 26.77%EV -2.34%E -0.652%K -0.904%G +0.000% | 3.13I 31.95%NM 30.70%EV -4.38%E -1.40%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-16 18:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.03%EV -14.66%E -7.26%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.62%EV -3.43%E -0.966%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.34%EV -5.30%E -1.71%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-16 18:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.93%EV -11.28%E -5.37%K -10.25%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.76%EV -4.79%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.31%EV -12.02%E -4.17%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-16 18:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 45.36%EV -16.35%E -8.26%K -16.68%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.66%EV -4.79%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.97%EV -5.30%E -1.71%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-16 18:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 45.36%EV -16.35%E -8.26%K -16.68%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.66%EV -4.79%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.97%EV -5.30%E -1.71%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-16 18:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 45.49%EV -16.77%E -8.51%K -17.29%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.60%EV -4.79%E -1.37%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.91%EV -5.30%E -1.71%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-05-16 18:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.05%EV -4.94%E -2.20%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.43%EV -6.15%E -1.78%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.52%EV -5.30%E -1.71%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-16 18:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.24I 44.64%NM 41.95%EV -5.36%E -2.39%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.24%EV -6.15%E -1.78%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.81%EV -6.83%E -2.24%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-16 18:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.24I 44.64%NM 41.95%EV -5.36%E -2.39%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.24%EV -6.15%E -1.78%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.81%EV -6.83%E -2.24%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-16 18:45 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.14%EV -7.05%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.44I 29.07%NM 26.95%EV -6.42%E -1.87%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.90%EV -8.35%E -2.78%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-16 18:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 42.97%EV -8.32%E -3.83%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.43%EV -7.51%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.60%EV -3.77%E -1.20%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-16 18:31 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.79%EV -7.05%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -7.51%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.17%EV -9.88%E -3.35%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-16 18:49 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -11.28%E -5.37%K -10.25%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -7.51%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -5.30%E -1.71%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-16 18:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -9.17%E -4.26%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.64%EV -7.51%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -11.41%E -3.93%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-05-16 18:45 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -9.17%E -4.26%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.64%EV -7.51%E -2.21%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -11.41%E -3.93%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-05-16 18:50 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -3.67%E -1.61%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -8.87%E -2.65%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -6.83%E -2.24%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-16 18:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.84%EV -7.05%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV -8.87%E -2.65%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -8.35%E -2.78%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-16 18:51 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.84%EV -7.05%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV -8.87%E -2.65%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -8.35%E -2.78%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-16 18:51 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.84%EV -7.05%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV -8.87%E -2.65%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -8.35%E -2.78%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-16 18:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.84%EV -7.05%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV -8.87%E -2.65%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -8.35%E -2.78%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-16 18:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -7.05%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -10.23%E -3.10%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -5.30%E -1.71%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-16 18:31 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -7.05%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -10.23%E -3.10%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -11.41%E -3.93%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-16 18:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -7.05%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -10.23%E -3.10%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -11.41%E -3.93%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-16 18:55 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -11.28%E -5.37%K -10.25%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -10.23%E -3.10%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -8.35%E -2.78%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-16 18:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.06%EV -7.05%E -3.21%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%EV -11.59%E -3.57%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.15%EV -11.41%E -3.93%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-05-16 18:45 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.19%EV -11.28%E -5.37%K -10.25%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.26%EV -11.59%E -3.57%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.55%EV -11.41%E -3.93%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-05-16 18:40 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 40.97%EV -11.28%E -5.37%K -10.25%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.75%EV -15.67%E -5.05%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.28%EV -15.99%E -5.82%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 16.2% | 2026-05-16 18:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.75% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.76% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.49% | 0.8% | 2026-05-16 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.75% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.76% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.49% | 0.8% | 2026-05-16 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.75% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.76% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.49% | 0.8% | 2026-05-16 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.75% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.76% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.49% | 0.8% | 2026-05-16 18:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.75% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.76% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.49% | 0.8% | 2026-05-16 18:55 |