Language:English
Ponte Preta v São Bernardo
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Ponte Preta (Local)
Prediction 11.71%8.54fair odd
EV +11.23%
Edge +1.18%
Kelly +1.32%
Growth +0.148%
assuming max odds 9.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.83%11.70%11.67%12.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.008.128.009.5014.29%12.31%12.50%10.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
São Bernardo (Visit)
Prediction 68.43%1.46fair odd
EV -4.19%
Edge -2.99%
Kelly -10.48%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.61%68.41%68.52%72.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.231.331.351.4081.30%75.20%74.35%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 19.86%5.04fair odd
EV +4.25%
Edge +0.809%
Kelly +1.000%
Growth +0.042%
assuming max odds 5.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.79%19.89%19.82%21.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.704.705.2523.81%21.29%21.28%19.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ponte Preta (Local): 11.71%; São Bernardo (Visit): 68.43%; Draw: 19.86%. For Ponte Preta (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.54. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.23%.
Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.83%EV +11.23%E +1.18%K +1.32%G +0.148% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.38%EV -11.72%E -9.08%K -40.41%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.79%EV +4.25%E +0.809%K +1.000%G +0.042% | 7.1% | 2026-09-06 21:25 |
| Casumo🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.83%EV +11.23%E +1.18%K +1.32%G +0.148% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.38%EV -11.72%E -9.08%K -40.41%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.79%EV +4.25%E +0.809%K +1.000%G +0.042% | 7.1% | 2026-09-06 21:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.83%EV +11.23%E +1.18%K +1.32%G +0.148% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.38%EV -11.72%E -9.08%K -40.41%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.79%EV +4.25%E +0.809%K +1.000%G +0.042% | 7.1% | 2026-09-06 21:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.83%EV +11.23%E +1.18%K +1.32%G +0.148% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.38%EV -11.72%E -9.08%K -40.41%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.79%EV +4.25%E +0.809%K +1.000%G +0.042% | 7.1% | 2026-09-06 21:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.83%EV +11.23%E +1.18%K +1.32%G +0.148% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.38%EV -11.72%E -9.08%K -40.41%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.79%EV +4.25%E +0.809%K +1.000%G +0.042% | 7.1% | 2026-09-06 21:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.83%EV +11.23%E +1.18%K +1.32%G +0.148% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.38%EV -11.72%E -9.08%K -40.41%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.79%EV +4.25%E +0.809%K +1.000%G +0.042% | 7.1% | 2026-09-06 21:25 |
| betPARX🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.83%EV +11.23%E +1.18%K +1.32%G +0.148% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.38%EV -11.72%E -9.08%K -40.41%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.79%EV +4.25%E +0.809%K +1.000%G +0.042% | 7.1% | 2026-09-06 21:25 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.01%EV +5.37%E +0.597%K +0.672%G +0.036% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 70.40%EV -12.40%E -9.69%K -44.30%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.59%EV -8.66%E -1.88%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-06 20:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.01%EV -0.481%E -0.057%K -0.064%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.30%EV -7.61%E -5.64%K -21.75%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.70%EV -5.68%E -1.20%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-06 20:44 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.93%EV -0.481%E -0.057%K -0.064%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.31%EV -8.30%E -6.19%K -24.40%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.76%EV -6.67%E -1.42%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-06 20:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.77%EV -0.481%E -0.057%K -0.064%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 70.93%EV -11.72%E -9.08%K -40.41%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -0.715%E -0.143%K -0.179%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-06 21:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.55%EV -0.481%E -0.057%K -0.064%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 71.16%EV -13.77%E -10.93%K -52.97%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.30%EV -2.70%E -0.551%K -0.693%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-06 21:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.49%EV -0.481%E -0.057%K -0.064%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.32%EV -14.46%E -11.57%K -57.83%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.19%EV -2.70%E -0.551%K -0.693%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-06 21:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.49%EV -0.481%E -0.057%K -0.064%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.32%EV -14.46%E -11.57%K -57.83%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.19%EV -2.70%E -0.551%K -0.693%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-06 21:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.33%EV -0.481%E -0.057%K -0.064%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 71.38%EV -15.83%E -12.87%K -68.80%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.29%EV -4.69%E -0.976%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-09-06 21:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.33%EV -0.481%E -0.057%K -0.064%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 71.38%EV -15.83%E -12.87%K -68.80%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.29%EV -4.69%E -0.976%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-09-06 21:25 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 8.30I 12.05%NM 11.17%EV -2.82%E -0.340%K -0.387%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.68%EV -7.61%E -5.64%K -21.75%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.15%EV -8.66%E -1.88%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-06 21:05 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.30%EV -3.41%E -0.413%K -0.470%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.07%EV -7.61%E -5.64%K -21.75%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -5.68%E -1.20%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-06 21:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.86%EV -6.33%E -0.792%K -0.905%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.77%EV -5.56%E -4.03%K -14.63%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.37%EV -2.70%E -0.551%K -0.693%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-06 21:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -6.33%E -0.792%K -0.905%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.82%EV -7.61%E -5.64%K -21.75%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.56%EV -5.68%E -1.20%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-06 21:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.43%EV -6.33%E -0.792%K -0.905%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.25%EV -8.30%E -6.19%K -24.40%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.32%EV -10.64%E -2.37%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-06 21:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.38%EV -6.33%E -0.792%K -0.905%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.94%EV -6.93%E -5.09%K -19.25%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.68%EV -16.60%E -3.95%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-06 21:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.38%EV -6.33%E -0.792%K -0.905%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.94%EV -6.93%E -5.09%K -19.25%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.68%EV -16.60%E -3.95%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-06 21:10 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.38%EV -6.33%E -0.792%K -0.905%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.94%EV -6.93%E -5.09%K -19.25%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.68%EV -16.60%E -3.95%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-06 21:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.38%EV -6.33%E -0.792%K -0.905%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.94%EV -6.93%E -5.09%K -19.25%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.68%EV -16.60%E -3.95%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-06 21:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.20%EV -6.33%E -0.792%K -0.905%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.90%EV -11.03%E -8.49%K -36.78%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -10.64%E -2.37%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-06 21:20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.20%EV -6.33%E -0.792%K -0.905%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.90%EV -11.03%E -8.49%K -36.78%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -10.64%E -2.37%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-06 21:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 7.80I 12.82%NM 11.73%EV -8.68%E -1.11%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.80%EV -8.98%E -6.75%K -27.22%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.47%EV -6.67%E -1.42%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-06 21:09 |
| Betsson🎯 | 7.80I 12.82%NM 11.73%EV -8.68%E -1.11%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.80%EV -8.98%E -6.75%K -27.22%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.47%EV -6.67%E -1.42%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-06 21:10 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.06%EV -11.02%E -1.45%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.43%EV -8.30%E -6.19%K -24.40%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.51%EV -6.67%E -1.42%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-06 21:15 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 7.55I 13.25%NM 12.39%EV -11.60%E -1.54%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -5.56%E -4.03%K -14.63%G +0.000% | 4.71I 21.23%NM 19.85%EV -6.47%E -1.37%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-06 21:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.60%EV -12.19%E -1.63%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.50%EV -4.19%E -2.99%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -5.68%E -1.20%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-06 21:15 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.27%EV -12.19%E -1.63%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.16%EV -7.61%E -5.64%K -21.75%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.58%EV -6.67%E -1.42%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-06 21:25 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -12.19%E -1.63%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.87%EV -7.61%E -5.64%K -21.75%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.92%EV -8.66%E -1.88%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-06 21:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.16%EV -12.19%E -1.63%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.57%EV -7.61%E -5.64%K -21.75%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.27%EV -10.64%E -2.37%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-06 21:14 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.16%EV -12.19%E -1.63%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.57%EV -7.61%E -5.64%K -21.75%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.27%EV -10.64%E -2.37%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-06 21:15 |
| Neds🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.16%EV -12.19%E -1.63%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.57%EV -7.61%E -5.64%K -21.75%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.27%EV -10.64%E -2.37%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-06 21:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.16%EV -12.19%E -1.63%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.57%EV -7.61%E -5.64%K -21.75%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.27%EV -10.64%E -2.37%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-06 21:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.08%EV -12.19%E -1.63%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.61%EV -6.93%E -5.09%K -19.25%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.31%EV -15.61%E -3.67%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-09-06 21:25 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.95%EV -12.19%E -1.63%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.36%EV -8.98%E -6.75%K -27.22%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.69%EV -14.02%E -3.24%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-06 21:05 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 7.49I 13.35%NM 12.48%EV -12.31%E -1.64%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.27%EV -4.88%E -3.51%K -12.50%G +0.000% | 4.62I 21.65%NM 20.24%EV -8.26%E -1.79%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-06 21:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.74%EV -15.12%E -2.08%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.95%EV -5.56%E -4.03%K -14.63%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.31%EV -9.65%E -2.12%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-06 21:19 |
| BetUS🎯 | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.74%EV -15.12%E -2.08%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.95%EV -5.56%E -4.03%K -14.63%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.31%EV -9.65%E -2.12%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-06 21:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 7.20I 13.89%NM 12.97%EV -15.70%E -2.18%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.72%EV -4.19%E -2.99%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -8.66%E -1.88%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-06 21:15 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 7.20I 13.89%NM 12.97%EV -15.70%E -2.18%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.72%EV -4.19%E -2.99%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -8.66%E -1.88%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-06 21:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.69%EV -18.04%E -2.58%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 66.79%EV -8.98%E -6.75%K -27.22%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.52%EV -14.02%E -3.24%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-09-06 21:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 9.80I 10.20%NM 10.17% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.67% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.16% | 0.4% | 2026-09-06 21:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 9.60I 10.42%NM 10.32% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.26% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.42% | 0.9% | 2026-09-06 21:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 9.40I 10.64%NM 10.52% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.10% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.38% | 1.2% | 2026-09-06 21:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 9.40I 10.64%NM 10.52% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.10% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.38% | 1.2% | 2026-09-06 21:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 9.40I 10.64%NM 10.46% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 70.25% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.28% | 1.7% | 2026-09-06 21:25 |