Idioma:Español
Ponte Preta v São Bernardo
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Ponte Preta (Local)
Predicción 11.71%8.54momio equitativo
EV +11.23%
Ventaja +1.18%
Kelly +1.32%
Crecimiento +0.148%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 9.50
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
9.83%11.70%11.67%12.97%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
7.008.128.009.5014.29%12.31%12.50%10.53%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
São Bernardo (Visitante)
Predicción 68.43%1.46momio equitativo
EV -4.19%
Ventaja -2.99%
Kelly -10.48%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.40
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
66.61%68.41%68.52%72.38%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.231.331.351.4081.30%75.20%74.35%71.43%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 19.86%5.04momio equitativo
EV +4.25%
Ventaja +0.809%
Kelly +1.000%
Crecimiento +0.042%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.25
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
17.79%19.89%19.82%21.68%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.204.704.705.2523.81%21.29%21.28%19.05%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Ponte Preta (Local): 11.71%; São Bernardo (Visitante): 68.43%; Empate: 19.86%. Para Ponte Preta (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 8.54. 8 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 9.50, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +11.23%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (46 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.83%EV +11.23%E +1.18%K +1.32%G +0.148% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.38%EV -11.72%E -9.08%K -40.41%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.79%EV +4.25%E +0.809%K +1.000%G +0.042% | 7.1% | 2026-09-06 21:25 |
| Casumo🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.83%EV +11.23%E +1.18%K +1.32%G +0.148% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.38%EV -11.72%E -9.08%K -40.41%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.79%EV +4.25%E +0.809%K +1.000%G +0.042% | 7.1% | 2026-09-06 21:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.83%EV +11.23%E +1.18%K +1.32%G +0.148% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.38%EV -11.72%E -9.08%K -40.41%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.79%EV +4.25%E +0.809%K +1.000%G +0.042% | 7.1% | 2026-09-06 21:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.83%EV +11.23%E +1.18%K +1.32%G +0.148% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.38%EV -11.72%E -9.08%K -40.41%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.79%EV +4.25%E +0.809%K +1.000%G +0.042% | 7.1% | 2026-09-06 21:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.83%EV +11.23%E +1.18%K +1.32%G +0.148% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.38%EV -11.72%E -9.08%K -40.41%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.79%EV +4.25%E +0.809%K +1.000%G +0.042% | 7.1% | 2026-09-06 21:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.83%EV +11.23%E +1.18%K +1.32%G +0.148% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.38%EV -11.72%E -9.08%K -40.41%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.79%EV +4.25%E +0.809%K +1.000%G +0.042% | 7.1% | 2026-09-06 21:25 |
| betPARX🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.83%EV +11.23%E +1.18%K +1.32%G +0.148% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.38%EV -11.72%E -9.08%K -40.41%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.79%EV +4.25%E +0.809%K +1.000%G +0.042% | 7.1% | 2026-09-06 21:25 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.01%EV +5.37%E +0.597%K +0.672%G +0.036% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 70.40%EV -12.40%E -9.69%K -44.30%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.59%EV -8.66%E -1.88%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-06 20:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.01%EV -0.481%E -0.057%K -0.064%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.30%EV -7.61%E -5.64%K -21.75%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.70%EV -5.68%E -1.20%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-06 20:44 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.93%EV -0.481%E -0.057%K -0.064%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.31%EV -8.30%E -6.19%K -24.40%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.76%EV -6.67%E -1.42%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-06 20:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.77%EV -0.481%E -0.057%K -0.064%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 70.93%EV -11.72%E -9.08%K -40.41%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -0.715%E -0.143%K -0.179%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-06 21:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.55%EV -0.481%E -0.057%K -0.064%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 71.16%EV -13.77%E -10.93%K -52.97%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.30%EV -2.70%E -0.551%K -0.693%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-06 21:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.49%EV -0.481%E -0.057%K -0.064%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.32%EV -14.46%E -11.57%K -57.83%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.19%EV -2.70%E -0.551%K -0.693%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-06 21:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.49%EV -0.481%E -0.057%K -0.064%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.32%EV -14.46%E -11.57%K -57.83%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.19%EV -2.70%E -0.551%K -0.693%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-06 21:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.33%EV -0.481%E -0.057%K -0.064%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 71.38%EV -15.83%E -12.87%K -68.80%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.29%EV -4.69%E -0.976%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-09-06 21:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.33%EV -0.481%E -0.057%K -0.064%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 71.38%EV -15.83%E -12.87%K -68.80%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.29%EV -4.69%E -0.976%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-09-06 21:25 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 8.30I 12.05%NM 11.17%EV -2.82%E -0.340%K -0.387%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.68%EV -7.61%E -5.64%K -21.75%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.15%EV -8.66%E -1.88%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-06 21:05 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.30%EV -3.41%E -0.413%K -0.470%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.07%EV -7.61%E -5.64%K -21.75%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -5.68%E -1.20%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-06 21:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.86%EV -6.33%E -0.792%K -0.905%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.77%EV -5.56%E -4.03%K -14.63%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.37%EV -2.70%E -0.551%K -0.693%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-06 21:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -6.33%E -0.792%K -0.905%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.82%EV -7.61%E -5.64%K -21.75%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.56%EV -5.68%E -1.20%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-06 21:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.43%EV -6.33%E -0.792%K -0.905%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.25%EV -8.30%E -6.19%K -24.40%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.32%EV -10.64%E -2.37%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-06 21:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.38%EV -6.33%E -0.792%K -0.905%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.94%EV -6.93%E -5.09%K -19.25%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.68%EV -16.60%E -3.95%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-06 21:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.38%EV -6.33%E -0.792%K -0.905%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.94%EV -6.93%E -5.09%K -19.25%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.68%EV -16.60%E -3.95%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-06 21:10 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.38%EV -6.33%E -0.792%K -0.905%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.94%EV -6.93%E -5.09%K -19.25%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.68%EV -16.60%E -3.95%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-06 21:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.38%EV -6.33%E -0.792%K -0.905%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.94%EV -6.93%E -5.09%K -19.25%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.68%EV -16.60%E -3.95%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-06 21:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.20%EV -6.33%E -0.792%K -0.905%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.90%EV -11.03%E -8.49%K -36.78%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -10.64%E -2.37%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-06 21:20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.20%EV -6.33%E -0.792%K -0.905%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.90%EV -11.03%E -8.49%K -36.78%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -10.64%E -2.37%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-06 21:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 7.80I 12.82%NM 11.73%EV -8.68%E -1.11%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.80%EV -8.98%E -6.75%K -27.22%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.47%EV -6.67%E -1.42%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-06 21:09 |
| Betsson🎯 | 7.80I 12.82%NM 11.73%EV -8.68%E -1.11%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.80%EV -8.98%E -6.75%K -27.22%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.47%EV -6.67%E -1.42%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-06 21:10 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.06%EV -11.02%E -1.45%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.43%EV -8.30%E -6.19%K -24.40%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.51%EV -6.67%E -1.42%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-06 21:15 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 7.55I 13.25%NM 12.39%EV -11.60%E -1.54%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -5.56%E -4.03%K -14.63%G +0.000% | 4.71I 21.23%NM 19.85%EV -6.47%E -1.37%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-06 21:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.60%EV -12.19%E -1.63%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.50%EV -4.19%E -2.99%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -5.68%E -1.20%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-06 21:15 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.27%EV -12.19%E -1.63%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.16%EV -7.61%E -5.64%K -21.75%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.58%EV -6.67%E -1.42%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-06 21:25 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -12.19%E -1.63%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.87%EV -7.61%E -5.64%K -21.75%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.92%EV -8.66%E -1.88%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-06 21:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.16%EV -12.19%E -1.63%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.57%EV -7.61%E -5.64%K -21.75%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.27%EV -10.64%E -2.37%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-06 21:14 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.16%EV -12.19%E -1.63%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.57%EV -7.61%E -5.64%K -21.75%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.27%EV -10.64%E -2.37%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-06 21:15 |
| Neds🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.16%EV -12.19%E -1.63%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.57%EV -7.61%E -5.64%K -21.75%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.27%EV -10.64%E -2.37%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-06 21:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.16%EV -12.19%E -1.63%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.57%EV -7.61%E -5.64%K -21.75%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.27%EV -10.64%E -2.37%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-06 21:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.08%EV -12.19%E -1.63%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.61%EV -6.93%E -5.09%K -19.25%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.31%EV -15.61%E -3.67%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-09-06 21:25 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.95%EV -12.19%E -1.63%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.36%EV -8.98%E -6.75%K -27.22%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.69%EV -14.02%E -3.24%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-06 21:05 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 7.49I 13.35%NM 12.48%EV -12.31%E -1.64%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.27%EV -4.88%E -3.51%K -12.50%G +0.000% | 4.62I 21.65%NM 20.24%EV -8.26%E -1.79%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-06 21:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.74%EV -15.12%E -2.08%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.95%EV -5.56%E -4.03%K -14.63%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.31%EV -9.65%E -2.12%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-06 21:19 |
| BetUS🎯 | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.74%EV -15.12%E -2.08%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.95%EV -5.56%E -4.03%K -14.63%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.31%EV -9.65%E -2.12%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-06 21:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 7.20I 13.89%NM 12.97%EV -15.70%E -2.18%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.72%EV -4.19%E -2.99%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -8.66%E -1.88%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-06 21:15 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 7.20I 13.89%NM 12.97%EV -15.70%E -2.18%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.72%EV -4.19%E -2.99%K -10.48%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -8.66%E -1.88%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-06 21:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.69%EV -18.04%E -2.58%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 66.79%EV -8.98%E -6.75%K -27.22%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.52%EV -14.02%E -3.24%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-09-06 21:10 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 9.80I 10.20%NM 10.17% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.67% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.16% | 0.4% | 2026-09-06 21:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 9.60I 10.42%NM 10.32% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.26% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.42% | 0.9% | 2026-09-06 21:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 9.40I 10.64%NM 10.52% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.10% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.38% | 1.2% | 2026-09-06 21:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 9.40I 10.64%NM 10.52% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.10% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.38% | 1.2% | 2026-09-06 21:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 9.40I 10.64%NM 10.46% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 70.25% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.28% | 1.7% | 2026-09-06 21:25 |