Language:English
Ponte Preta v Ceará
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Ponte Preta (Local)
Prediction 26.47%3.78fair odd
EV +4.57%
Edge +1.16%
Kelly +1.55%
Growth +0.071%
assuming max odds 3.95
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.60%26.25%26.55%27.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.633.593.9530.77%27.52%27.86%25.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Ceará (Visit)
Prediction 42.35%2.36fair odd
EV -3.02%
Edge -1.32%
Kelly -2.34%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.29
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.29%42.55%42.39%45.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.152.172.2950.00%46.53%46.19%43.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 31.18%3.21fair odd
EV -3.35%
Edge -1.08%
Kelly -1.59%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.96%31.20%31.06%32.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.942.953.1037.04%34.04%33.96%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ponte Preta (Local): 26.47%; Ceará (Visit): 42.35%; Draw: 31.18%. For Ponte Preta (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.78. 16 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.57%.
Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| betPARX🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.82%EV +4.57%E +1.16%K +1.55%G +0.071% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.81%EV -11.07%E -5.27%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -6.47%E -2.16%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-01 23:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.82%EV +4.57%E +1.16%K +1.55%G +0.071% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.81%EV -11.07%E -5.27%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -6.47%E -2.16%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-01 23:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.82%EV +4.57%E +1.16%K +1.55%G +0.071% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.81%EV -11.07%E -5.27%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -6.47%E -2.16%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-01 23:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.82%EV +4.57%E +1.16%K +1.55%G +0.071% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.81%EV -11.07%E -5.27%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -6.47%E -2.16%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-01 23:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.82%EV +4.57%E +1.16%K +1.55%G +0.071% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.81%EV -11.07%E -5.27%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -6.47%E -2.16%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-01 23:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.82%EV +4.57%E +1.16%K +1.55%G +0.071% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.81%EV -11.07%E -5.27%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -6.47%E -2.16%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-01 23:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.82%EV +4.57%E +1.16%K +1.55%G +0.071% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.81%EV -11.07%E -5.27%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -6.47%E -2.16%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-01 23:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV +4.57%E +1.16%K +1.55%G +0.071% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.81%EV -11.92%E -5.73%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -8.03%E -2.72%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-01 17:39 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.01%EV +1.93%E +0.501%K +0.676%G +0.013% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.23%EV -3.45%E -1.51%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 32.75%EV -8.34%E -2.84%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-01 23:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.01%EV +1.93%E +0.501%K +0.676%G +0.013% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.23%EV -3.45%E -1.51%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 32.75%EV -8.34%E -2.84%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-01 23:49 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.83%EV +1.93%E +0.501%K +0.676%G +0.013% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 44.54%EV -12.76%E -6.20%K -12.04%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.64%EV -9.58%E -3.31%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-01 23:54 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.78%EV +1.93%E +0.501%K +0.676%G +0.013% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.66%EV -13.19%E -6.43%K -12.56%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -9.58%E -3.31%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-01 23:54 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.91%EV +0.604%E +0.159%K +0.216%G +0.001% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 44.54%EV -13.61%E -6.67%K -13.09%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.55%EV -10.21%E -3.54%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-01 23:54 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.73%EV +0.604%E +0.159%K +0.216%G +0.001% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 44.64%EV -14.46%E -7.16%K -14.17%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.64%EV -11.14%E -3.91%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-04-01 23:54 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.73%EV +0.604%E +0.159%K +0.216%G +0.001% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 44.64%EV -14.46%E -7.16%K -14.17%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.64%EV -11.14%E -3.91%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-04-01 23:54 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.73%EV +0.604%E +0.159%K +0.216%G +0.001% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 44.64%EV -14.46%E -7.16%K -14.17%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.64%EV -11.14%E -3.91%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-04-01 23:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.37%EV -2.04%E -0.552%K -0.757%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.08%EV -15.30%E -7.65%K -15.30%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.56%EV -8.03%E -2.72%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-04-01 23:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.69I 27.10%NM 26.12%EV -2.31%E -0.626%K -0.858%G +0.000% | 2.29I 43.67%NM 42.08%EV -3.02%E -1.32%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 31.80%EV -5.53%E -1.83%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-01 23:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -4.69%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.20%EV -6.83%E -3.11%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.01%EV -9.58%E -3.31%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-01 23:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -4.69%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.06%EV -6.83%E -3.11%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.24%EV -10.52%E -3.67%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-01 23:50 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.58I 27.93%NM 25.87%EV -5.22%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 2.19I 45.66%NM 42.30%EV -7.26%E -3.31%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 2.91I 34.36%NM 31.83%EV -9.27%E -3.19%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-01 23:54 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.01%EV -6.02%E -1.69%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 2.19I 45.66%NM 42.16%EV -7.26%E -3.31%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.84%EV -9.58%E -3.31%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-01 23:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -7.34%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -4.72%E -2.10%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -6.47%E -2.16%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-01 23:49 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -7.34%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.56%EV -7.68%E -3.52%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.93%EV -6.47%E -2.16%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-01 23:44 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -7.34%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.56%EV -7.68%E -3.52%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.93%EV -6.47%E -2.16%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-01 23:45 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.38%EV -7.34%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 2.21I 45.25%NM 41.78%EV -6.41%E -2.90%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.84%EV -9.58%E -3.31%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-01 23:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -7.34%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -8.95%E -4.16%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -6.47%E -2.16%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-01 23:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -7.34%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -11.07%E -5.27%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -12.70%E -4.54%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-04-01 23:49 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.48I 28.74%NM 26.84%EV -7.87%E -2.26%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.84%EV -7.68%E -3.52%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 30.32%EV -3.97%E -1.29%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-01 23:50 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.50%EV -8.66%E -2.51%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.52%EV -8.95%E -4.16%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.99%EV -8.03%E -2.72%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-01 23:45 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -9.99%E -2.94%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -6.83%E -3.11%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -3.35%E -1.08%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-01 23:49 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -9.99%E -2.94%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -6.83%E -3.11%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -6.47%E -2.16%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-01 23:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -9.99%E -2.94%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -4.72%E -2.10%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.98%EV -10.21%E -3.54%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-01 23:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -9.99%E -2.94%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -4.72%E -2.10%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.98%EV -10.21%E -3.54%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-01 23:49 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -9.99%E -2.94%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -4.72%E -2.10%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.98%EV -10.21%E -3.54%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-01 23:49 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -9.99%E -2.94%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -4.72%E -2.10%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.98%EV -10.21%E -3.54%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-01 23:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -12.63%E -3.83%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -6.83%E -3.11%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -6.47%E -2.16%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-01 23:45 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -12.63%E -3.83%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -11.07%E -5.27%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -6.47%E -2.16%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-04-01 23:44 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.90%EV -13.96%E -4.29%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.29%EV -4.72%E -2.10%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -11.14%E -3.91%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-04-01 23:49 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.12%EV -13.96%E -4.29%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 42.44%EV -15.30%E -7.65%K -15.30%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 31.44%EV -15.82%E -5.86%K -9.31%G +0.000% | 17.8% | 2026-04-01 23:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.73% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.33% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.95% | 1.0% | 2026-04-01 23:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.73% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.33% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.95% | 1.0% | 2026-04-01 23:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.73% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.33% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.95% | 1.0% | 2026-04-01 23:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.73% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.33% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.95% | 1.0% | 2026-04-01 23:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.75% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.17% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.08% | 2.2% | 2026-04-01 23:55 |