Language:English
Ponte Preta v Avai
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Ponte Preta (Local)
Prediction 20.60%4.85fair odd
EV +0.345%
Edge +0.071%
Kelly +0.089%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.87
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.79%20.53%20.59%22.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.414.404.8725.00%22.70%22.73%20.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Avai (Visit)
Prediction 51.87%1.93fair odd
EV -5.08%
Edge -2.78%
Kelly -6.12%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.83
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.61%51.95%51.91%54.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.771.771.8360.61%56.56%56.34%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 27.53%3.63fair odd
EV -2.28%
Edge -0.641%
Kelly -0.893%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.55
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.31%27.53%27.50%28.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.353.333.5532.26%29.89%30.08%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ponte Preta (Local): 20.60%; Avai (Visit): 51.87%; Draw: 27.53%. For Ponte Preta (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.85. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.87, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.345%.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.87I 20.53%NM 19.74%EV +0.345%E +0.071%K +0.089%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.54%EV -5.08%E -2.78%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 3.47I 28.82%NM 27.71%EV -4.48%E -1.29%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-23 18:44 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.79%EV -1.10%E -0.229%K -0.289%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 54.67%EV -14.42%E -8.74%K -22.18%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.53%EV -6.41%E -1.88%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-08-23 18:34 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.00%EV -3.16%E -0.672%K -0.853%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.94%EV -6.12%E -3.38%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.06%EV -7.78%E -2.32%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-23 18:44 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.00%EV -3.16%E -0.672%K -0.853%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.94%EV -6.12%E -3.38%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.06%EV -7.78%E -2.32%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-23 18:44 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.97%EV -3.16%E -0.672%K -0.853%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.43%EV -7.16%E -4.00%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.60%EV -6.41%E -1.88%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-23 18:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.85%EV -3.16%E -0.672%K -0.853%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.71%EV -8.19%E -4.63%K -10.64%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.41%E -1.88%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-23 18:38 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -5.22%E -1.13%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.65%EV -5.08%E -2.78%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.80%EV -6.41%E -1.88%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-23 18:44 |
| BetUS🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.29%EV -5.22%E -1.13%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.85%EV -6.64%E -3.69%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -7.78%E -2.32%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-23 18:54 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -5.22%E -1.13%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.05%EV -8.19%E -4.63%K -10.64%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.92%EV -9.16%E -2.78%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-23 18:48 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.38%EV -6.25%E -1.37%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.52%EV -6.64%E -3.69%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.10%EV -9.16%E -2.78%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-23 18:39 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -7.28%E -1.62%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.52%EV -7.68%E -4.31%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -3.65%E -1.04%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-23 13:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -7.28%E -1.62%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.83%EV -6.64%E -3.69%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.41%E -1.88%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-23 18:44 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.61%EV -7.28%E -1.62%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.11%EV -7.68%E -4.31%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -6.41%E -1.88%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-23 18:44 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -7.28%E -1.62%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.96%EV -6.64%E -3.69%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -11.91%E -3.72%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-23 18:44 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -7.28%E -1.62%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.96%EV -6.64%E -3.69%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -11.91%E -3.72%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-23 18:44 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -7.28%E -1.62%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.96%EV -6.64%E -3.69%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -11.91%E -3.72%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-23 18:44 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -7.28%E -1.62%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.96%EV -6.64%E -3.69%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -11.91%E -3.72%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-23 18:44 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.26%EV -7.28%E -1.62%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -9.23%E -5.28%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -9.16%E -2.78%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-23 18:39 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.26%EV -7.28%E -1.62%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -9.23%E -5.28%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -9.16%E -2.78%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-23 18:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.09%EV -7.28%E -1.62%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.66%EV -9.23%E -5.28%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -11.91%E -3.72%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-23 18:49 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.47I 22.37%NM 20.91%EV -7.90%E -1.77%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.22%EV -7.16%E -4.00%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 3.48I 28.74%NM 26.86%EV -4.20%E -1.21%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-23 18:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.23%EV -9.34%E -2.12%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.47%EV -7.68%E -4.31%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.31%EV -2.28%E -0.641%K -0.893%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-23 18:54 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.23%EV -9.34%E -2.12%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.47%EV -7.68%E -4.31%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.31%EV -2.28%E -0.641%K -0.893%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-23 18:54 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.21%EV -9.34%E -2.12%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.13%EV -7.16%E -4.00%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.66%EV -3.65%E -1.04%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-23 18:39 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.21%EV -9.34%E -2.12%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.13%EV -7.16%E -4.00%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.66%EV -3.65%E -1.04%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-23 18:39 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.21%EV -9.34%E -2.12%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.13%EV -7.16%E -4.00%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.66%EV -3.65%E -1.04%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-23 18:39 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.21%EV -9.34%E -2.12%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.13%EV -7.16%E -4.00%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.66%EV -3.65%E -1.04%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-23 18:39 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.21%EV -9.34%E -2.12%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.13%EV -7.16%E -4.00%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.66%EV -3.65%E -1.04%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-23 18:39 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.84%EV -9.34%E -2.12%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.80%EV -8.19%E -4.63%K -10.64%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.37%EV -7.78%E -2.32%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-23 18:44 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.81%EV -9.34%E -2.12%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.44%EV -7.68%E -4.31%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.75%EV -9.16%E -2.78%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-23 18:44 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.81%EV -9.34%E -2.12%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.44%EV -7.68%E -4.31%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.75%EV -9.16%E -2.78%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-23 18:44 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%EV -9.34%E -2.12%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.15%EV -10.27%E -5.94%K -14.07%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -9.16%E -2.78%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-08-23 18:51 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%EV -9.34%E -2.12%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.15%EV -10.27%E -5.94%K -14.07%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -9.16%E -2.78%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-08-23 18:54 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.19%EV -10.78%E -2.49%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.83%EV -8.19%E -4.63%K -10.64%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.98%EV -6.41%E -1.88%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-23 18:44 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.77%EV -10.78%E -2.49%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.98%EV -10.27%E -5.94%K -14.07%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.25%EV -9.16%E -2.78%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-08-23 14:09 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.53%EV -10.78%E -2.49%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.80%EV -9.23%E -5.28%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.67%EV -14.66%E -4.73%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-08-23 18:39 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.50%EV -12.43%E -2.92%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.62%EV -8.19%E -4.63%K -10.64%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -6.41%E -1.88%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-08-23 13:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.44%EV -12.43%E -2.92%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 51.77%EV -8.71%E -4.95%K -11.46%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.80%EV -6.41%E -1.88%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-23 18:39 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.53%EV -13.46%E -3.20%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.08%EV -8.19%E -4.63%K -10.64%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -9.16%E -2.78%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-23 18:44 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -13.46%E -3.20%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.86%EV -10.27%E -5.94%K -14.07%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.78%EV -7.78%E -2.32%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-08-23 18:39 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.21%EV -13.46%E -3.20%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 51.79%EV -10.79%E -6.27%K -14.98%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.00%EV -9.16%E -2.78%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-08-23 18:39 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.55%EV -15.52%E -3.79%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 51.67%EV -11.31%E -6.61%K -15.92%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.78%EV -9.16%E -2.78%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-08-23 18:39 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.40%EV -15.52%E -3.79%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 51.61%EV -11.82%E -6.96%K -16.89%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.99%EV -10.54%E -3.24%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-08-23 18:34 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.40%EV -15.52%E -3.79%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 51.61%EV -11.82%E -6.96%K -16.89%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.99%EV -10.54%E -3.24%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-08-23 18:34 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.14%EV -17.58%E -4.40%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.61%EV -9.23%E -5.28%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.25%EV -10.54%E -3.24%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-08-23 18:44 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.14%EV -17.58%E -4.40%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.61%EV -9.23%E -5.28%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.25%EV -10.54%E -3.24%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-08-23 18:44 |
| Neds🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.14%EV -17.58%E -4.40%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.61%EV -9.23%E -5.28%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.25%EV -10.54%E -3.24%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-08-23 18:44 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.14%EV -17.58%E -4.40%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 50.61%EV -9.23%E -5.28%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.25%EV -10.54%E -3.24%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-08-23 18:44 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.55% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 52.75% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.70% | 0.3% | 2026-08-23 18:49 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.55% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 52.75% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.70% | 0.3% | 2026-08-23 18:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.55% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 52.75% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.70% | 0.3% | 2026-08-23 18:49 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.55% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 52.75% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.70% | 0.3% | 2026-08-23 18:49 |
| Smarkets◎ | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.73% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 52.48% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.79% | 1.4% | 2026-08-23 18:54 |