The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Ponte Preta v Avai

2026-08-23 19:00 UTC — Brazil Série B

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ponte Preta (Local)

Prediction 31.29%3.20fair odd
EV -6.12%
Edge -2.04%
Kelly -3.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.03%31.29%31.29%31.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.933.003.0035.71%34.14%33.33%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Avai (Visit)

Prediction 38.95%2.57fair odd
EV -7.30%
Edge -3.07%
Kelly -5.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.95%38.95%38.95%39.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.332.382.3844.44%42.90%42.02%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.76%3.36fair odd
EV -6.27%
Edge -1.99%
Kelly -2.92%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.53%29.76%29.76%29.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.083.153.1533.90%32.50%31.75%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Ponte Preta (Local): 31.29%; Avai (Visit): 38.95%; Draw: 29.76%. For Ponte Preta (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.20. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.00, with an expected value of -6.12%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -6.12%E -2.04%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.23%EV -7.30%E -3.07%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.64%EV -6.27%E -1.99%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-16 20:04
Casumo🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -6.12%E -2.04%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.23%EV -7.30%E -3.07%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.64%EV -6.27%E -1.99%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-16 20:04
Unibet (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -6.12%E -2.04%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.23%EV -7.30%E -3.07%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.64%EV -6.27%E -1.99%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-16 20:04
Unibet (NL)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -6.12%E -2.04%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.23%EV -7.30%E -3.07%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.64%EV -6.27%E -1.99%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-16 20:04
ATG (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -6.12%E -2.04%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.23%EV -7.30%E -3.07%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.64%EV -6.27%E -1.99%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-16 20:04
Svenska Spel🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -6.12%E -2.04%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.23%EV -7.30%E -3.07%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.64%EV -6.27%E -1.99%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-16 20:04
betPARX🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -6.12%E -2.04%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.23%EV -7.30%E -3.07%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.64%EV -6.27%E -1.99%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-16 20:05
BetRivers🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -9.25%E -3.19%K -4.87%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 38.95%EV -9.25%E -3.97%K -6.95%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.76%EV -9.25%E -3.03%K -4.51%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-16 20:04
Grosvenor🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.03%EV -9.87%E -3.43%K -5.25%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.19%EV -11.19%E -4.91%K -8.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.78%EV -10.73%E -3.58%K -5.37%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-16 20:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.25%EV -10.81%E -3.79%K -5.84%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.06%EV -11.19%E -4.91%K -8.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -10.73%E -3.58%K -5.37%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-16 20:04
TABtouch🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.09%EV -10.81%E -3.79%K -5.84%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.38%EV -12.36%E -5.49%K -9.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.53%EV -10.73%E -3.58%K -5.37%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-16 19:35
Virgin Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.31%EV -12.38%E -4.42%K -6.88%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.97%EV -12.36%E -5.49%K -9.89%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.72%EV -12.22%E -4.14%K -6.27%G +0.000%14.1%2026-08-16 20:04
LiveScore Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.31%EV -12.38%E -4.42%K -6.88%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.97%EV -12.36%E -5.49%K -9.89%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.72%EV -12.22%E -4.14%K -6.27%G +0.000%14.1%2026-08-16 20:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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