Language:English
Ponte Preta v Athletic Club (MG)
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Ponte Preta (Local)
Prediction 25.01%4.00fair odd
EV -2.70%
Edge -0.695%
Kelly -0.936%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.89
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.03%25.02%24.94%25.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.653.653.8928.99%27.38%27.40%25.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Athletic Club (MG) (Visit)
Prediction 45.30%2.21fair odd
EV -4.87%
Edge -2.32%
Kelly -4.42%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.64%45.38%45.36%47.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.902.032.052.1052.63%49.15%48.78%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 29.69%3.37fair odd
EV -2.04%
Edge -0.617%
Kelly -0.885%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.18%29.60%29.70%31.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.093.103.3034.48%32.40%32.26%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ponte Preta (Local): 25.01%; Athletic Club (MG) (Visit): 45.30%; Draw: 29.69%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.37. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.30, with an expected value of -2.04%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (45 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.89I 25.71%NM 24.03%EV -2.70%E -0.695%K -0.936%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.82%EV -7.58%E -3.72%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -7.97%E -2.57%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-28 22:23 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.86I 25.91%NM 24.90%EV -3.45%E -0.895%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 2.09I 47.85%NM 45.98%EV -5.32%E -2.54%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.12%EV -2.04%E -0.617%K -0.885%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-07-28 22:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.89%EV -3.70%E -0.962%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.63%EV -4.87%E -2.32%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.48%EV -3.52%E -1.08%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-28 22:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.89%EV -3.70%E -0.962%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.63%EV -4.87%E -2.32%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.48%EV -3.52%E -1.08%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-28 22:09 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.89%EV -3.70%E -0.962%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.63%EV -4.87%E -2.32%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.48%EV -3.52%E -1.08%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-28 22:14 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.50%EV -3.70%E -0.962%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.02%EV -7.13%E -3.48%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -5.00%E -1.56%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-28 22:04 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.63%EV -4.96%E -1.30%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.66%EV -7.13%E -3.48%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.71%EV -6.49%E -2.06%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-28 22:24 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.63%EV -4.96%E -1.30%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.66%EV -7.13%E -3.48%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.71%EV -6.49%E -2.06%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-28 22:24 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.63%EV -4.96%E -1.30%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.66%EV -7.13%E -3.48%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.71%EV -6.49%E -2.06%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-28 22:24 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -6.21%E -1.65%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.15%EV -5.77%E -2.78%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.81%EV -6.49%E -2.06%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-28 22:19 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -6.21%E -1.65%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.29%EV -7.13%E -3.48%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.95%EV -7.97%E -2.57%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-28 22:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -7.46%E -2.02%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.32%EV -6.23%E -3.01%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -5.00%E -1.56%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-28 22:24 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -7.46%E -2.02%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.56%EV -7.13%E -3.48%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -5.00%E -1.56%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-28 22:24 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.24%EV -7.46%E -2.02%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.11%EV -6.23%E -3.01%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -6.49%E -2.06%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-28 22:29 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.24%EV -7.46%E -2.02%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.11%EV -6.23%E -3.01%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -6.49%E -2.06%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-28 22:29 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.24%EV -7.46%E -2.02%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.11%EV -6.23%E -3.01%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -6.49%E -2.06%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-28 22:29 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.24%EV -7.46%E -2.02%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.11%EV -6.23%E -3.01%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -6.49%E -2.06%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-28 22:29 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.89%EV -7.46%E -2.02%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -7.13%E -3.48%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.19%EV -9.46%E -3.10%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-28 22:14 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.89%EV -7.46%E -2.02%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -7.13%E -3.48%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.19%EV -9.46%E -3.10%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-28 22:14 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -7.46%E -2.02%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.04%EV -7.58%E -3.72%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.13%EV -9.46%E -3.10%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-07-28 22:19 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.77%EV -7.46%E -2.02%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.64%EV -4.87%E -2.32%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.60%EV -13.91%E -4.80%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-07-28 22:14 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.37%EV -7.46%E -2.02%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 47.45%EV -13.93%E -7.33%K -15.47%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.18%EV -5.00%E -1.56%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-07-28 22:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.22%EV -8.71%E -2.39%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.56%EV -8.49%E -4.20%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.22%EV -6.49%E -2.06%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-28 22:23 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -9.96%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.45%EV -7.13%E -3.48%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.67%EV -3.52%E -1.08%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-28 22:14 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -9.96%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -7.13%E -3.48%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -7.97%E -2.57%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-07-28 22:19 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -9.96%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.39%EV -7.13%E -3.48%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -10.94%E -3.65%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-07-28 22:24 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -9.96%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.39%EV -7.13%E -3.48%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -10.94%E -3.65%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-07-28 22:24 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -9.96%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.39%EV -7.13%E -3.48%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -10.94%E -3.65%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-07-28 22:25 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -9.96%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.39%EV -7.13%E -3.48%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -10.94%E -3.65%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-07-28 22:24 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -9.96%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.39%EV -7.13%E -3.48%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -10.94%E -3.65%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-07-28 21:59 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -9.96%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 44.98%EV -8.49%E -4.20%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.79%EV -9.46%E -3.10%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-07-28 22:14 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.11%EV -9.96%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 44.75%EV -8.49%E -4.20%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -10.94%E -3.65%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-07-28 21:59 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.71%EV -9.96%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.63%EV -11.66%E -5.98%K -12.28%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -10.94%E -3.65%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-07-28 18:24 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.26%EV -11.21%E -3.16%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.84%EV -9.40%E -4.70%K -9.40%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -10.94%E -3.65%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-07-28 22:29 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -12.46%E -3.56%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.07%EV -7.13%E -3.48%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.12%EV -10.94%E -3.65%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-07-28 22:19 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -12.46%E -3.56%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -9.40%E -4.70%K -9.40%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -7.97%E -2.57%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-07-28 22:24 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -12.46%E -3.56%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -9.40%E -4.70%K -9.40%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -7.97%E -2.57%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-07-28 22:24 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.46%E -3.56%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -9.40%E -4.70%K -9.40%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -10.94%E -3.65%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-07-28 21:59 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.46%E -3.56%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -9.40%E -4.70%K -9.40%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -10.94%E -3.65%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-07-28 22:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.46%E -3.56%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -9.40%E -4.70%K -9.40%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -10.94%E -3.65%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-07-28 22:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.46%E -3.56%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -9.40%E -4.70%K -9.40%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -10.94%E -3.65%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-07-28 22:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.36%EV -12.46%E -3.56%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 45.05%EV -10.76%E -5.46%K -11.09%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.59%EV -10.94%E -3.65%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-07-28 22:29 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.23%EV -12.46%E -3.56%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 44.83%EV -10.76%E -5.46%K -11.09%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.94%EV -12.43%E -4.21%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-07-28 22:29 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.39%EV -13.71%E -3.97%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 44.92%EV -11.66%E -5.98%K -12.28%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.69%EV -12.43%E -4.21%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-07-28 22:29 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.39%EV -13.71%E -3.97%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 44.92%EV -11.66%E -5.98%K -12.28%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.69%EV -12.43%E -4.21%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-07-28 22:29 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.17% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.60% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.24% | 0.6% | 2026-07-28 22:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.16% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.17% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.67% | 0.6% | 2026-07-28 22:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.16% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.17% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.67% | 0.6% | 2026-07-28 22:29 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.16% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.17% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.67% | 0.6% | 2026-07-28 22:29 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.19% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 45.48% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.33% | 1.8% | 2026-07-28 22:25 |
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