The School of Odds

Ponte Preta v Athletic Club (MG)

2026-07-28 22:30 UTC — Brazil Série B

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Ponte Preta (Local)

Prediction 25.63%3.90fair odd
EV -6.46%
Edge -1.77%
Kelly -2.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.54%25.63%25.63%25.80%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.403.563.653.6529%28%27%27%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Athletic Club (MG) (Visit)

Prediction 45.49%2.20fair odd
EV -7.20%
Edge -3.53%
Kelly -6.92%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.45%45.49%45.49%45.73%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.932.002.042.0452%50%49%49%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 28.88%3.46fair odd
EV -6.13%
Edge -1.89%
Kelly -2.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.67%28.88%28.88%28.93%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.053.173.253.2533%32%31%31%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet3.65I 27.40%NM 25.56%EV -6.46%E -1.77%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.73%EV -7.20%E -3.53%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.71%EV -6.13%E -1.89%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-21 23:35
Unibet (SE)3.65I 27.40%NM 25.56%EV -6.46%E -1.77%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.73%EV -7.20%E -3.53%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.71%EV -6.13%E -1.89%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-21 23:35
Unibet (NL)3.65I 27.40%NM 25.56%EV -6.46%E -1.77%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.73%EV -7.20%E -3.53%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.71%EV -6.13%E -1.89%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-21 23:35
Casumo3.65I 27.40%NM 25.56%EV -6.46%E -1.77%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.73%EV -7.20%E -3.53%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.71%EV -6.13%E -1.89%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-21 23:35
Svenska Spel3.65I 27.40%NM 25.56%EV -6.46%E -1.77%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.73%EV -7.20%E -3.53%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.71%EV -6.13%E -1.89%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-21 23:35
betPARX3.65I 27.40%NM 25.56%EV -6.46%E -1.77%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.73%EV -7.20%E -3.53%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.71%EV -6.13%E -1.89%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-21 23:35
ATG (SE)3.65I 27.40%NM 25.56%EV -6.46%E -1.77%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.73%EV -7.20%E -3.53%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.71%EV -6.13%E -1.89%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-21 23:35
BetRivers3.55I 28.17%NM 25.63%EV -9.02%E -2.54%K -3.54%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.49%EV -9.02%E -4.51%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.88%EV -9.02%E -2.86%K -4.20%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-21 23:35
Grosvenor3.50I 28.57%NM 25.54%EV -10.30%E -2.94%K -4.12%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 45.62%EV -10.84%E -5.53%K -11.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.84%EV -10.46%E -3.38%K -4.98%G +0.000%11.8%2026-07-21 23:35
LeoVegas (SE)3.45I 28.99%NM 25.76%EV -11.58%E -3.36%K -4.73%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.57%EV -11.30%E -5.79%K -11.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.67%EV -10.46%E -3.38%K -4.98%G +0.000%12.5%2026-07-21 23:35
TABtouch3.45I 28.99%NM 25.58%EV -11.58%E -3.36%K -4.73%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 45.49%EV -11.75%E -6.06%K -12.50%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.93%EV -11.91%E -3.90%K -5.81%G +0.000%13.3%2026-07-21 23:35
LiveScore Bet3.40I 29.41%NM 25.80%EV -12.86%E -3.78%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 45.45%EV -12.20%E -6.32%K -13.12%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.76%EV -11.91%E -3.90%K -5.81%G +0.000%14.0%2026-07-21 23:35
Virgin Bet3.40I 29.41%NM 25.80%EV -12.86%E -3.78%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 45.45%EV -12.20%E -6.32%K -13.12%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.76%EV -11.91%E -3.90%K -5.81%G +0.000%14.0%2026-07-21 23:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.