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Ponte Preta v Athletic Club (MG)
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Ponte Preta (Local)
Predicción 25.01%4.00momio equitativo
EV -2.70%
Ventaja -0.695%
Kelly -0.936%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.89
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.03%25.02%24.94%25.88%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.453.653.653.8928.99%27.38%27.40%25.71%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Athletic Club (MG) (Visitante)
Predicción 45.30%2.21momio equitativo
EV -4.87%
Ventaja -2.32%
Kelly -4.42%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.10
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
43.64%45.38%45.36%47.45%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.902.032.052.1052.63%49.15%48.78%47.62%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 29.69%3.37momio equitativo
EV -2.04%
Ventaja -0.617%
Kelly -0.885%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.30
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.18%29.60%29.70%31.60%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.903.093.103.3034.48%32.40%32.26%30.30%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Ponte Preta (Local): 25.01%; Athletic Club (MG) (Visitante): 45.30%; Empate: 29.69%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.37. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 3.30, con un valor esperado de -2.04%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (45 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.89I 25.71%NM 24.03%EV -2.70%E -0.695%K -0.936%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.82%EV -7.58%E -3.72%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -7.97%E -2.57%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-28 22:23 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.86I 25.91%NM 24.90%EV -3.45%E -0.895%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 2.09I 47.85%NM 45.98%EV -5.32%E -2.54%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.12%EV -2.04%E -0.617%K -0.885%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-07-28 22:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.89%EV -3.70%E -0.962%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.63%EV -4.87%E -2.32%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.48%EV -3.52%E -1.08%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-28 22:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.89%EV -3.70%E -0.962%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.63%EV -4.87%E -2.32%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.48%EV -3.52%E -1.08%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-28 22:09 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.89%EV -3.70%E -0.962%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.63%EV -4.87%E -2.32%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.48%EV -3.52%E -1.08%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-28 22:14 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.50%EV -3.70%E -0.962%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.02%EV -7.13%E -3.48%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -5.00%E -1.56%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-28 22:04 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.63%EV -4.96%E -1.30%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.66%EV -7.13%E -3.48%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.71%EV -6.49%E -2.06%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-28 22:24 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.63%EV -4.96%E -1.30%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.66%EV -7.13%E -3.48%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.71%EV -6.49%E -2.06%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-28 22:24 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.63%EV -4.96%E -1.30%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.66%EV -7.13%E -3.48%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.71%EV -6.49%E -2.06%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-28 22:24 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -6.21%E -1.65%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.15%EV -5.77%E -2.78%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.81%EV -6.49%E -2.06%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-28 22:19 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -6.21%E -1.65%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.29%EV -7.13%E -3.48%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.95%EV -7.97%E -2.57%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-28 22:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -7.46%E -2.02%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.32%EV -6.23%E -3.01%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -5.00%E -1.56%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-28 22:24 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -7.46%E -2.02%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.56%EV -7.13%E -3.48%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -5.00%E -1.56%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-28 22:24 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.24%EV -7.46%E -2.02%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.11%EV -6.23%E -3.01%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -6.49%E -2.06%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-28 22:29 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.24%EV -7.46%E -2.02%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.11%EV -6.23%E -3.01%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -6.49%E -2.06%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-28 22:29 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.24%EV -7.46%E -2.02%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.11%EV -6.23%E -3.01%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -6.49%E -2.06%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-28 22:29 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.24%EV -7.46%E -2.02%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.11%EV -6.23%E -3.01%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -6.49%E -2.06%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-28 22:29 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.89%EV -7.46%E -2.02%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -7.13%E -3.48%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.19%EV -9.46%E -3.10%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-28 22:14 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.89%EV -7.46%E -2.02%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -7.13%E -3.48%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.19%EV -9.46%E -3.10%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-28 22:14 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -7.46%E -2.02%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.04%EV -7.58%E -3.72%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.13%EV -9.46%E -3.10%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-07-28 22:19 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.77%EV -7.46%E -2.02%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.64%EV -4.87%E -2.32%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.60%EV -13.91%E -4.80%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-07-28 22:14 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.37%EV -7.46%E -2.02%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 47.45%EV -13.93%E -7.33%K -15.47%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.18%EV -5.00%E -1.56%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-07-28 22:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.22%EV -8.71%E -2.39%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.56%EV -8.49%E -4.20%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.22%EV -6.49%E -2.06%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-28 22:23 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -9.96%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.45%EV -7.13%E -3.48%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.67%EV -3.52%E -1.08%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-28 22:14 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -9.96%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -7.13%E -3.48%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -7.97%E -2.57%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-07-28 22:19 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -9.96%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.39%EV -7.13%E -3.48%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -10.94%E -3.65%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-07-28 22:24 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -9.96%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.39%EV -7.13%E -3.48%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -10.94%E -3.65%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-07-28 22:24 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -9.96%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.39%EV -7.13%E -3.48%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -10.94%E -3.65%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-07-28 22:25 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -9.96%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.39%EV -7.13%E -3.48%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -10.94%E -3.65%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-07-28 22:24 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -9.96%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.39%EV -7.13%E -3.48%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -10.94%E -3.65%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-07-28 21:59 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -9.96%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 44.98%EV -8.49%E -4.20%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.79%EV -9.46%E -3.10%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-07-28 22:14 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.11%EV -9.96%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 44.75%EV -8.49%E -4.20%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -10.94%E -3.65%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-07-28 21:59 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.71%EV -9.96%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.63%EV -11.66%E -5.98%K -12.28%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -10.94%E -3.65%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-07-28 18:24 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.26%EV -11.21%E -3.16%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.84%EV -9.40%E -4.70%K -9.40%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -10.94%E -3.65%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-07-28 22:29 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -12.46%E -3.56%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.07%EV -7.13%E -3.48%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.12%EV -10.94%E -3.65%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-07-28 22:19 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -12.46%E -3.56%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -9.40%E -4.70%K -9.40%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -7.97%E -2.57%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-07-28 22:24 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -12.46%E -3.56%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -9.40%E -4.70%K -9.40%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -7.97%E -2.57%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-07-28 22:24 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.46%E -3.56%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -9.40%E -4.70%K -9.40%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -10.94%E -3.65%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-07-28 21:59 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.46%E -3.56%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -9.40%E -4.70%K -9.40%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -10.94%E -3.65%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-07-28 22:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.46%E -3.56%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -9.40%E -4.70%K -9.40%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -10.94%E -3.65%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-07-28 22:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.46%E -3.56%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -9.40%E -4.70%K -9.40%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -10.94%E -3.65%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-07-28 22:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.36%EV -12.46%E -3.56%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 45.05%EV -10.76%E -5.46%K -11.09%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.59%EV -10.94%E -3.65%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-07-28 22:29 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.23%EV -12.46%E -3.56%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 44.83%EV -10.76%E -5.46%K -11.09%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.94%EV -12.43%E -4.21%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-07-28 22:29 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.39%EV -13.71%E -3.97%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 44.92%EV -11.66%E -5.98%K -12.28%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.69%EV -12.43%E -4.21%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-07-28 22:29 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.39%EV -13.71%E -3.97%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 44.92%EV -11.66%E -5.98%K -12.28%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.69%EV -12.43%E -4.21%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-07-28 22:29 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.17% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.60% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.24% | 0.6% | 2026-07-28 22:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.16% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.17% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.67% | 0.6% | 2026-07-28 22:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.16% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.17% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.67% | 0.6% | 2026-07-28 22:29 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.16% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.17% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.67% | 0.6% | 2026-07-28 22:29 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.19% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 45.48% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.33% | 1.8% | 2026-07-28 22:25 |