La escuela de los momios

Ponte Preta v Athletic Club (MG)

2026-07-28 22:30 UTC — Brazil Série B

Resultado del partido

43 corredores (14 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Ponte Preta (Local)

Predicción 24.77%4.04momio equitativo
EV -2.91%
Ventaja -0.742%
Kelly -0.996%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.92

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.00%24.88%24.64%26.63%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.403.653.703.9229.41%27.40%27.03%25.51%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Athletic Club (MG) (Visitante)

Predicción 45.87%2.18momio equitativo
EV -5.50%
Ventaja -2.67%
Kelly -5.19%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.06

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
44.17%45.76%45.95%46.74%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.912.002.002.0652.36%49.88%50.00%48.54%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 29.36%3.41momio equitativo
EV -3.11%
Ventaja -0.943%
Kelly -1.35%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.33%29.35%29.40%30.40%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.123.103.3033.33%32.03%32.26%30.30%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (43 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle3.92I 25.51%NM 24.16%EV -2.91%E -0.742%K -0.996%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.43%EV -6.42%E -3.15%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.41%EV -5.46%E -1.70%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-25 23:50
1xBet3.83I 26.11%NM 24.31%EV -5.14%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 45.86%EV -6.88%E -3.39%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.84%EV -8.40%E -2.69%K -3.96%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-25 23:42
Betway3.80I 26.32%NM 24.46%EV -5.88%E -1.55%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.48%EV -8.26%E -4.13%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.05%EV -6.05%E -1.89%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-25 23:40
NordicBet3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -5.88%E -1.55%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.80%EV -7.34%E -3.63%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.85%EV -8.99%E -2.90%K -4.28%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-25 14:54
Betsson3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -5.88%E -1.55%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.80%EV -7.34%E -3.63%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.85%EV -8.99%E -2.90%K -4.28%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-25 14:55
Bovada3.80I 26.32%NM 24.28%EV -5.88%E -1.55%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.14%EV -8.26%E -4.13%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.58%EV -8.40%E -2.69%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-25 23:40
Unibet (UK)3.80I 26.32%NM 24.24%EV -5.88%E -1.55%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.05%EV -8.26%E -4.13%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.71%EV -8.99%E -2.90%K -4.28%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-25 22:35
888sport3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -5.88%E -1.55%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.60%EV -8.26%E -4.13%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.40%EV -11.92%E -3.97%K -5.96%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-25 14:45
William Hill3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -5.88%E -1.55%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.60%EV -8.26%E -4.13%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.40%EV -11.92%E -3.97%K -5.96%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-25 14:50
888sport (SE)3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -5.88%E -1.55%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.60%EV -8.26%E -4.13%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.40%EV -11.92%E -3.97%K -5.96%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-25 14:45
Mr Green (SE)3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -5.88%E -1.55%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.60%EV -8.26%E -4.13%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.40%EV -11.92%E -3.97%K -5.96%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-25 14:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -7.12%E -1.90%K -2.59%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.74%EV -8.26%E -4.13%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -3.11%E -0.943%K -1.35%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-25 22:34
LowVig.ag3.75I 26.67%NM 24.81%EV -7.12%E -1.90%K -2.59%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.17%EV -5.50%E -2.67%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -8.99%E -2.90%K -4.28%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-26 00:50
BetOnline.ag3.75I 26.67%NM 24.81%EV -7.12%E -1.90%K -2.59%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.17%EV -5.50%E -2.67%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -8.99%E -2.90%K -4.28%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-26 00:50
DraftKings3.75I 26.67%NM 24.71%EV -7.12%E -1.90%K -2.59%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.33%EV -8.26%E -4.13%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.96%EV -6.05%E -1.89%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-26 00:44
SportsBet3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -8.36%E -2.26%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 46.01%EV -6.88%E -3.39%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -4.58%E -1.41%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-24 00:15
Unibet3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -8.36%E -2.26%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.69%EV -6.42%E -3.15%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.12%EV -6.05%E -1.89%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-25 10:49
Unibet (SE)3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -8.36%E -2.26%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.69%EV -6.42%E -3.15%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.12%EV -6.05%E -1.89%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-25 10:49
Unibet (NL)3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -8.36%E -2.26%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.69%EV -6.42%E -3.15%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.12%EV -6.05%E -1.89%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-25 10:50
Casumo3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -8.36%E -2.26%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.69%EV -6.42%E -3.15%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.12%EV -6.05%E -1.89%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-25 10:50
Svenska Spel3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -8.36%E -2.26%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.69%EV -6.42%E -3.15%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.12%EV -6.05%E -1.89%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-25 10:50
betPARX3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -8.36%E -2.26%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.69%EV -6.42%E -3.15%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.12%EV -6.05%E -1.89%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-25 10:50
ATG (SE)3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -8.36%E -2.26%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.69%EV -6.42%E -3.15%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.12%EV -6.05%E -1.89%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-25 10:50
Codere (IT)3.70I 27.03%NM 24.44%EV -8.36%E -2.26%K -3.10%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 45.91%EV -9.63%E -4.89%K -9.93%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.65%EV -10.45%E -3.43%K -5.10%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-25 14:55
LeoVegas3.65I 27.40%NM 24.87%EV -9.60%E -2.63%K -3.62%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 45.85%EV -9.17%E -4.63%K -9.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -8.99%E -2.90%K -4.28%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-26 02:34
Coolbet3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -10.83%E -3.01%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.45%EV -5.96%E -2.91%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.67%EV -4.58%E -1.41%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-25 19:10
FanDuel3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -10.83%E -3.01%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%EV -8.26%E -4.13%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -6.05%E -1.89%K -2.75%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-24 00:14
Paddy Power3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -10.83%E -3.01%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%EV -8.26%E -4.13%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -6.05%E -1.89%K -2.75%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-24 00:15
PointsBet (AU)3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -10.83%E -3.01%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%EV -8.26%E -4.13%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -6.05%E -1.89%K -2.75%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-24 00:15
BetRivers3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -10.83%E -3.01%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -8.26%E -4.13%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -8.99%E -2.90%K -4.28%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-25 10:50
BoyleSports3.60I 27.78%NM 24.48%EV -10.83%E -3.01%K -4.17%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 46.14%EV -12.38%E -6.48%K -13.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.38%EV -11.92%E -3.97%K -5.96%G +0.000%13.5%2026-07-25 18:50
Grosvenor3.55I 28.17%NM 25.16%EV -12.07%E -3.40%K -4.73%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 45.56%EV -10.09%E -5.15%K -10.51%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.28%EV -10.45%E -3.43%K -5.10%G +0.000%12.0%2026-07-25 10:50
betfred_uk3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -13.31%E -3.80%K -5.32%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -8.26%E -4.13%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -8.99%E -2.90%K -4.28%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-24 00:15
PlayUp3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -13.31%E -3.80%K -5.32%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -8.26%E -4.13%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -8.99%E -2.90%K -4.28%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-25 15:15
LeoVegas (SE)3.50I 28.57%NM 25.37%EV -13.31%E -3.80%K -5.32%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.53%EV -10.55%E -5.41%K -11.10%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.11%EV -10.45%E -3.43%K -5.10%G +0.000%12.6%2026-07-25 10:49
TABtouch3.50I 28.57%NM 25.31%EV -13.31%E -3.80%K -5.32%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 45.65%EV -11.01%E -5.67%K -11.71%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.04%EV -10.45%E -3.43%K -5.10%G +0.000%12.9%2026-07-25 10:50
LiveScore Bet3.45I 28.99%NM 25.40%EV -14.55%E -4.22%K -5.94%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 45.40%EV -11.47%E -5.94%K -12.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.21%EV -11.92%E -3.97%K -5.96%G +0.000%14.1%2026-07-25 10:50
Virgin Bet3.45I 28.99%NM 25.40%EV -14.55%E -4.22%K -5.94%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 45.40%EV -11.47%E -5.94%K -12.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.21%EV -11.92%E -3.97%K -5.96%G +0.000%14.1%2026-07-25 10:50
BetMGM3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -15.79%E -4.64%K -6.58%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.17%EV -5.96%E -2.91%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -8.99%E -2.90%K -4.28%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-24 08:20
Coral3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -15.79%E -4.64%K -6.58%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -8.26%E -4.13%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -8.99%E -2.90%K -4.28%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-24 08:14
Ladbrokes (UK)3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -15.79%E -4.64%K -6.58%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -8.26%E -4.13%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -8.99%E -2.90%K -4.28%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-24 08:15
Ladbrokes (AU)3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -15.79%E -4.64%K -6.58%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -8.26%E -4.13%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -8.99%E -2.90%K -4.28%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-24 08:15
Neds3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -15.79%E -4.64%K -6.58%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -8.26%E -4.13%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -8.99%E -2.90%K -4.28%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-24 08:15
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (2)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook4.10I 24.39%NM 22.87%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.88%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.25%6.6%2026-07-25 23:55
Smarkets3.45I 28.99%NM 24.91%1.89I 52.91%NM 45.46%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.63%16.4%2026-07-25 14:55