Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Ponte Preta v Athletic Club (MG)

Início: 2026-07-28 22:30 UTC

Final: Ponte Preta 1–1 Athletic Club (MG)

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

45 casas de apostas (15 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Ponte Preta (Local)

Previsão 25.01%4.00odd justa
EV -2.70%
Vantagem -0.695%
Kelly -0.936%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.89

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
24.03%25.02%24.94%25.88%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.453.653.653.8928.99%27.38%27.40%25.71%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Athletic Club (MG) (Visitante)

Previsão 45.30%2.21odd justa
EV -4.87%
Vantagem -2.32%
Kelly -4.42%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.10

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
43.64%45.38%45.36%47.45%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.902.032.052.1052.63%49.15%48.78%47.62%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 29.69%3.37odd justa
EV -2.04%
Vantagem -0.617%
Kelly -0.885%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.30

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
28.18%29.60%29.70%31.60%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.903.093.103.3034.48%32.40%32.26%30.30%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Ponte Preta (Local): 25.01%; Athletic Club (MG) (Visitante): 45.30%; Empate: 29.69%. Para Empate, essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.37. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível: as melhores eram 3.30, com valor esperado de -2.04%; não produziam valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (45 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
1xBet🎯3.89I 25.71%NM 24.03%EV -2.70%E -0.695%K -0.936%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.82%EV -7.58%E -3.72%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -7.97%E -2.57%K -3.80%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-28 22:23
Pinnacle🎯3.86I 25.91%NM 24.90%EV -3.45%E -0.895%K -1.21%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 45.98%EV -5.32%E -2.54%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.12%EV -2.04%E -0.617%K -0.885%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-28 22:20
LowVig.ag🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.89%EV -3.70%E -0.962%K -1.30%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.63%EV -4.87%E -2.32%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.48%EV -3.52%E -1.08%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-28 22:10
BetOnline.ag🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.89%EV -3.70%E -0.962%K -1.30%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.63%EV -4.87%E -2.32%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.48%EV -3.52%E -1.08%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-28 22:09
BetUS🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.89%EV -3.70%E -0.962%K -1.30%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.63%EV -4.87%E -2.32%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.48%EV -3.52%E -1.08%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-28 22:14
DraftKings🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.50%EV -3.70%E -0.962%K -1.30%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.02%EV -7.13%E -3.48%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -5.00%E -1.56%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-28 22:04
Unibet (SE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.63%EV -4.96%E -1.30%K -1.77%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.66%EV -7.13%E -3.48%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.71%EV -6.49%E -2.06%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-28 22:24
Unibet (NL)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.63%EV -4.96%E -1.30%K -1.77%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.66%EV -7.13%E -3.48%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.71%EV -6.49%E -2.06%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-28 22:24
betPARX🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.63%EV -4.96%E -1.30%K -1.77%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.66%EV -7.13%E -3.48%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.71%EV -6.49%E -2.06%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-28 22:24
Coolbet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -6.21%E -1.65%K -2.26%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.15%EV -5.77%E -2.78%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.81%EV -6.49%E -2.06%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-28 22:19
Unibet (UK)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -6.21%E -1.65%K -2.26%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.29%EV -7.13%E -3.48%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.95%EV -7.97%E -2.57%K -3.80%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-28 22:15
SportsBet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -7.46%E -2.02%K -2.76%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.32%EV -6.23%E -3.01%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -5.00%E -1.56%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-28 22:24
FanDuel🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -7.46%E -2.02%K -2.76%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.56%EV -7.13%E -3.48%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -5.00%E -1.56%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-28 22:24
Unibet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.24%EV -7.46%E -2.02%K -2.76%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.11%EV -6.23%E -3.01%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -6.49%E -2.06%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-28 22:29
Casumo🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.24%EV -7.46%E -2.02%K -2.76%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.11%EV -6.23%E -3.01%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -6.49%E -2.06%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-28 22:29
Svenska Spel🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.24%EV -7.46%E -2.02%K -2.76%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.11%EV -6.23%E -3.01%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -6.49%E -2.06%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-28 22:29
ATG (SE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.24%EV -7.46%E -2.02%K -2.76%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.11%EV -6.23%E -3.01%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -6.49%E -2.06%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-28 22:29
NordicBet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.89%EV -7.46%E -2.02%K -2.76%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -7.13%E -3.48%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.19%EV -9.46%E -3.10%K -4.61%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-28 22:14
Betsson🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.89%EV -7.46%E -2.02%K -2.76%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -7.13%E -3.48%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.19%EV -9.46%E -3.10%K -4.61%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-28 22:14
Codere (IT)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -7.46%E -2.02%K -2.76%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.04%EV -7.58%E -3.72%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.13%EV -9.46%E -3.10%K -4.61%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-28 22:19
LeoVegas🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.77%EV -7.46%E -2.02%K -2.76%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.64%EV -4.87%E -2.32%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.60%EV -13.91%E -4.80%K -7.32%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-28 22:14
Tipico (DE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.37%EV -7.46%E -2.02%K -2.76%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 47.45%EV -13.93%E -7.33%K -15.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.18%EV -5.00%E -1.56%K -2.27%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-28 22:05
Bovada🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.22%EV -8.71%E -2.39%K -3.29%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.56%EV -8.49%E -4.20%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.22%EV -6.49%E -2.06%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-28 22:23
Betway🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -9.96%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.45%EV -7.13%E -3.48%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.67%EV -3.52%E -1.08%K -1.56%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-28 22:14
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -9.96%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -7.13%E -3.48%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -7.97%E -2.57%K -3.80%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-28 22:19
888sport🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -9.96%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.39%EV -7.13%E -3.48%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -10.94%E -3.65%K -5.47%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-28 22:24
William Hill🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -9.96%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.39%EV -7.13%E -3.48%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -10.94%E -3.65%K -5.47%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-28 22:24
888sport (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -9.96%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.39%EV -7.13%E -3.48%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -10.94%E -3.65%K -5.47%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-28 22:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -9.96%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.39%EV -7.13%E -3.48%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -10.94%E -3.65%K -5.47%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-28 22:24
BetMGM🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -9.96%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.39%EV -7.13%E -3.48%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -10.94%E -3.65%K -5.47%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-28 21:59
BetRivers🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -9.96%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 44.98%EV -8.49%E -4.20%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.79%EV -9.46%E -3.10%K -4.61%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-28 22:14
PlayUp🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.11%EV -9.96%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 44.75%EV -8.49%E -4.20%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -10.94%E -3.65%K -5.47%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-28 21:59
BoyleSports🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.71%EV -9.96%E -2.77%K -3.83%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.63%EV -11.66%E -5.98%K -12.28%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -10.94%E -3.65%K -5.47%G +0.000%12.4%2026-07-28 18:24
Grosvenor🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.26%EV -11.21%E -3.16%K -4.40%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.84%EV -9.40%E -4.70%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -10.94%E -3.65%K -5.47%G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-28 22:29
betfred_uk🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -12.46%E -3.56%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.07%EV -7.13%E -3.48%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.12%EV -10.94%E -3.65%K -5.47%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-28 22:19
Paddy Power🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -12.46%E -3.56%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -9.40%E -4.70%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -7.97%E -2.57%K -3.80%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-28 22:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -12.46%E -3.56%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -9.40%E -4.70%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -7.97%E -2.57%K -3.80%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-28 22:24
Coral🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.46%E -3.56%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -9.40%E -4.70%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -10.94%E -3.65%K -5.47%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-28 21:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.46%E -3.56%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -9.40%E -4.70%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -10.94%E -3.65%K -5.47%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-28 22:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.46%E -3.56%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -9.40%E -4.70%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -10.94%E -3.65%K -5.47%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-28 22:00
Neds🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.46%E -3.56%K -4.98%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -9.40%E -4.70%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -10.94%E -3.65%K -5.47%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-28 22:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.36%EV -12.46%E -3.56%K -4.98%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 45.05%EV -10.76%E -5.46%K -11.09%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.59%EV -10.94%E -3.65%K -5.47%G +0.000%12.7%2026-07-28 22:29
TABtouch🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.23%EV -12.46%E -3.56%K -4.98%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 44.83%EV -10.76%E -5.46%K -11.09%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.94%EV -12.43%E -4.21%K -6.37%G +0.000%13.2%2026-07-28 22:29
LiveScore Bet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 25.39%EV -13.71%E -3.97%K -5.60%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 44.92%EV -11.66%E -5.98%K -12.28%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.69%EV -12.43%E -4.21%K -6.37%G +0.000%14.2%2026-07-28 22:29
Virgin Bet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 25.39%EV -13.71%E -3.97%K -5.60%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 44.92%EV -11.66%E -5.98%K -12.28%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.69%EV -12.43%E -4.21%K -6.37%G +0.000%14.2%2026-07-28 22:29
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.95I 25.32%NM 25.17%2.18I 45.87%NM 45.60%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.24%0.6%2026-07-28 22:25
Matchbook3.95I 25.32%NM 25.16%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.17%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.67%0.6%2026-07-28 22:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.95I 25.32%NM 25.16%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.17%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.67%0.6%2026-07-28 22:29
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.95I 25.32%NM 25.16%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.17%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.67%0.6%2026-07-28 22:29
Smarkets3.90I 25.64%NM 25.19%2.16I 46.30%NM 45.48%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.33%1.8%2026-07-28 22:25