Language:English
Operario PR v Ponte Preta
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Operario PR (Local)
Prediction 71.02%1.41fair odd
EV -2.71%
Edge -1.98%
Kelly -7.32%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.37
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.27%70.95%71.01%73.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.311.301.3780.00%76.37%76.92%72.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Ponte Preta (Visit)
Prediction 9.59%10.43fair odd
EV +12.17%
Edge +1.04%
Kelly +1.14%
Growth +0.138%
assuming max odds 11.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.20%9.66%9.56%11.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.509.169.2011.7013.33%10.91%10.87%8.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 19.40%5.16fair odd
EV +0.472%
Edge +0.091%
Kelly +0.113%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 5.18
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.27%19.39%19.43%21.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.254.644.605.1823.53%21.53%21.74%19.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Operario PR (Local): 71.02%; Ponte Preta (Visit): 9.59%; Draw: 19.40%. For Ponte Preta (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.43. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 11.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +12.17%.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.27%EV -6.97%E -5.32%K -22.48%G +0.000% | 11.70I 8.55%NM 8.20%EV +12.17%E +1.04%K +1.14%G +0.138% | 5.18I 19.31%NM 18.53%EV +0.472%E +0.091%K +0.113%G +0.001% | 4.2% | 2026-07-22 22:29 |
| SportsBet | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.42%EV -8.39%E -6.50%K -28.93%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.90%EV +0.667%E +0.064%K +0.070%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.68%EV -3.02%E -0.604%K -0.755%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-22 22:24 |
| FanDuel | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.42%EV -8.39%E -6.50%K -28.93%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.90%EV +0.667%E +0.064%K +0.070%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.68%EV -3.02%E -0.604%K -0.755%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-22 22:23 |
| Coolbet | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.93%EV -6.26%E -4.74%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.36%EV -4.13%E -0.413%K -0.459%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.71%EV -7.87%E -1.66%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-22 22:29 |
| Betway | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.94%EV -7.68%E -5.91%K -25.60%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.35%EV -4.13%E -0.413%K -0.459%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -3.02%E -0.604%K -0.755%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-22 22:29 |
| DraftKings | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.94%EV -7.68%E -5.91%K -25.60%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.35%EV -4.13%E -0.413%K -0.459%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -3.02%E -0.604%K -0.755%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-22 22:30 |
| Bovada | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.54%EV -8.39%E -6.50%K -28.93%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.23%EV -4.13%E -0.413%K -0.459%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.23%EV -6.90%E -1.44%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-22 22:28 |
| 888sport | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.79%EV -7.68%E -5.91%K -25.60%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.20%EV -4.13%E -0.413%K -0.459%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV -10.78%E -2.34%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-07-22 22:09 |
| William Hill | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.79%EV -7.68%E -5.91%K -25.60%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.20%EV -4.13%E -0.413%K -0.459%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV -10.78%E -2.34%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-07-22 22:09 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.79%EV -7.68%E -5.91%K -25.60%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.20%EV -4.13%E -0.413%K -0.459%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV -10.78%E -2.34%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-07-22 22:09 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.79%EV -7.68%E -5.91%K -25.60%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.20%EV -4.13%E -0.413%K -0.459%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV -10.78%E -2.34%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-07-22 22:09 |
| Paddy Power | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.04%EV -11.23%E -8.98%K -44.92%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.00%EV -4.13%E -0.413%K -0.459%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.96%EV -7.87%E -1.66%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-07-22 22:24 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.04%EV -11.23%E -8.98%K -44.92%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.00%EV -4.13%E -0.413%K -0.459%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.96%EV -7.87%E -1.66%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-07-22 22:19 |
| 1xBet | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.42%EV -6.97%E -5.32%K -22.48%G +0.000% | 9.82I 10.18%NM 9.53%EV -5.85%E -0.596%K -0.664%G +0.000% | 4.91I 20.37%NM 19.05%EV -4.76%E -0.970%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-22 22:29 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.22%EV -8.39%E -6.50%K -28.93%G +0.000% | 9.80I 10.20%NM 9.51%EV -6.04%E -0.617%K -0.687%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.27%EV -1.08%E -0.212%K -0.263%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-22 22:29 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.22%EV -8.39%E -6.50%K -28.93%G +0.000% | 9.80I 10.20%NM 9.51%EV -6.04%E -0.617%K -0.687%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.27%EV -1.08%E -0.212%K -0.263%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-22 22:29 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.25%EV -7.68%E -5.91%K -25.60%G +0.000% | 9.60I 10.42%NM 9.65%EV -7.96%E -0.829%K -0.926%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.10%EV -5.93%E -1.22%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-07-22 22:09 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.90%EV -7.68%E -5.91%K -25.60%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.70%EV -8.92%E -0.939%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.40%EV -7.87%E -1.66%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-07-22 22:29 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.31I 76.34%NM 69.98%EV -6.97%E -5.32%K -22.48%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.65%EV -8.92%E -0.939%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.37%EV -12.72%E -2.83%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-07-22 22:29 |
| Bet Victor | 1.29I 77.52%NM 70.30%EV -8.39%E -6.50%K -28.93%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.55%EV -8.92%E -0.939%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.15%EV -12.72%E -2.83%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-07-22 22:27 |
| betano_uk | 1.29I 77.52%NM 69.98%EV -8.39%E -6.50%K -28.93%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.50%EV -8.92%E -0.939%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.52%EV -14.66%E -3.33%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-07-22 22:29 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.11%EV -11.23%E -8.98%K -44.92%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.49%EV -8.92%E -0.939%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.40%EV -4.96%E -1.01%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-07-22 22:19 |
| betfred_uk | 1.29I 77.52%NM 69.75%EV -8.39%E -6.50%K -28.93%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.47%EV -8.92%E -0.939%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.78%EV -16.01%E -3.70%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-07-22 22:29 |
| Betsson | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.35%EV -6.26%E -4.74%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 9.20I 10.87%NM 10.09%EV -11.80%E -1.28%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.55%EV -7.87%E -1.66%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-22 22:14 |
| NordicBet | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.35%EV -6.26%E -4.74%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 9.20I 10.87%NM 10.09%EV -11.80%E -1.28%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.55%EV -7.87%E -1.66%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-22 22:15 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.31I 76.34%NM 70.07%EV -6.97%E -5.32%K -22.48%G +0.000% | 9.20I 10.87%NM 9.98%EV -11.80%E -1.28%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.95%EV -10.78%E -2.34%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-07-22 22:14 |
| BetMGM | 1.31I 76.34%NM 70.36%EV -6.97%E -5.32%K -22.48%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.24%EV -13.71%E -1.52%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.40%EV -7.87%E -1.66%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-07-22 22:28 |
| BetUS | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.52%EV -7.68%E -5.91%K -25.60%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.19%EV -13.71%E -1.52%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.30%EV -7.87%E -1.66%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-07-22 19:14 |
| LeoVegas | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.22%EV -7.68%E -5.91%K -25.60%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.14%EV -13.71%E -1.52%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 19.63%EV -9.81%E -2.11%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-22 22:29 |
| PlayUp | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.46%EV -5.55%E -4.17%K -16.81%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.12%EV -13.71%E -1.52%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.42%EV -17.57%E -4.13%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-07-22 22:29 |
| Unibet | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.54%EV -2.71%E -1.98%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.05%EV -18.51%E -2.18%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.41%EV -10.78%E -2.34%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-22 21:49 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.70%EV -3.42%E -2.51%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -18.51%E -2.18%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -10.78%E -2.34%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-22 21:49 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.70%EV -3.42%E -2.51%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -18.51%E -2.18%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -10.78%E -2.34%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-22 21:49 |
| Casumo | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.70%EV -3.42%E -2.51%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -18.51%E -2.18%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -10.78%E -2.34%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-22 21:49 |
| betPARX | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.70%EV -3.42%E -2.51%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -18.51%E -2.18%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -10.78%E -2.34%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-22 21:49 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.70%EV -3.42%E -2.51%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -18.51%E -2.18%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -10.78%E -2.34%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-22 21:49 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.70%EV -3.42%E -2.51%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -18.51%E -2.18%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -10.78%E -2.34%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-22 21:49 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.36%EV -7.68%E -5.91%K -25.60%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.61%EV -18.51%E -2.18%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.04%EV -12.72%E -2.83%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-07-22 22:29 |
| Neds | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.36%EV -7.68%E -5.91%K -25.60%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.61%EV -18.51%E -2.18%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.04%EV -12.72%E -2.83%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-07-22 22:29 |
| Coral | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.36%EV -7.68%E -5.91%K -25.60%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.61%EV -18.51%E -2.18%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.04%EV -12.72%E -2.83%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-07-22 22:29 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.36%EV -7.68%E -5.91%K -25.60%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.61%EV -18.51%E -2.18%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.04%EV -12.72%E -2.83%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-07-22 22:29 |
| BoyleSports | 1.29I 77.52%NM 69.52%EV -8.39%E -6.50%K -28.93%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.55%EV -18.51%E -2.18%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.93%EV -12.72%E -2.83%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-07-22 22:14 |
| BetRivers | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.77%EV -4.13%E -3.06%K -11.79%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.44%EV -23.30%E -2.91%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.79%EV -14.66%E -3.33%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-07-22 21:50 |
| Grosvenor | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.27%EV -5.55%E -4.17%K -16.81%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.93%EV -28.09%E -3.75%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.81%EV -16.60%E -3.86%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-07-22 21:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.32I 75.76%NM 67.43%EV -6.26%E -4.74%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.87%EV -28.09%E -3.75%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.70%EV -16.60%E -3.86%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-07-22 21:49 |
| TABtouch | 1.32I 75.76%NM 67.27%EV -6.26%E -4.74%K -19.56%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.84%EV -28.09%E -3.75%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 20.89%EV -17.57%E -4.13%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-07-22 21:44 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.30I 76.92%NM 67.60%EV -7.68%E -5.91%K -25.60%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.72%EV -28.09%E -3.75%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 20.68%EV -17.57%E -4.13%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-07-22 21:49 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.30I 76.92%NM 67.60%EV -7.68%E -5.91%K -25.60%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.72%EV -28.09%E -3.75%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 20.68%EV -17.57%E -4.13%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-07-22 21:49 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.36I 73.53%NM 73.50% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.33% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 18.17% | 0.0% | 2026-07-22 22:29 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.36I 73.53%NM 73.50% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.33% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 18.17% | 0.0% | 2026-07-22 22:29 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.89% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.98% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 18.14% | 0.3% | 2026-07-22 22:29 |
| Matchbook | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.13% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.59% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.28% | 1.3% | 2026-07-22 22:30 |
| Smarkets | 1.34I 74.63%NM 73.54% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.21% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.25% | 1.5% | 2026-07-22 22:29 |