The School of Odds

Operario PR v Grêmio Novorizontino

Kickoff: 2026-07-12 14:02 UTC

Final: Operario PR 2–1 Grêmio Novorizontino

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. See how the models score across every settled game →

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Head to Head

47 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Operario PR (Local)

Prediction 36.29%2.76fair odd
EV -3.83%
Edge -1.44%
Kelly -2.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.69%36.32%36.34%37.97%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.322.502.502.6543%40%40%38%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Grêmio Novorizontino (Visit)

Prediction 31.81%3.14fair odd
EV -1.38%
Edge -0.444%
Kelly -0.655%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.85%31.76%31.80%32.73%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.752.882.903.1036%35%34%32%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 31.89%3.14fair odd
EV -2.72%
Edge -0.892%
Kelly -1.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.50%31.92%31.86%32.92%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.752.892.883.0536%35%35%33%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle2.65I 37.74%NM 36.36%EV -3.83%E -1.44%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.08%EV -1.38%E -0.444%K -0.655%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 32.55%EV -5.59%E -1.89%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-12 13:59
DraftKings2.60I 38.46%NM 36.39%EV -5.64%E -2.17%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.54%EV -4.56%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.07%EV -5.91%E -2.00%K -3.03%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-12 13:59
LowVig.ag2.60I 38.46%NM 36.21%EV -5.64%E -2.17%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -2.97%E -0.973%K -1.45%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 32.92%EV -8.78%E -3.07%K -4.72%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-12 13:59
BetOnline.ag2.60I 38.46%NM 36.21%EV -5.64%E -2.17%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -2.97%E -0.973%K -1.45%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 32.92%EV -8.78%E -3.07%K -4.72%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-12 13:59
Coolbet2.60I 38.46%NM 36.00%EV -5.64%E -2.17%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.27%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.73%EV -5.91%E -2.00%K -3.03%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-12 13:49
SportsBet2.60I 38.46%NM 35.98%EV -5.64%E -2.17%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -4.56%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.83%EV -9.10%E -3.19%K -4.92%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-12 13:59
FanDuel2.60I 38.46%NM 35.98%EV -5.64%E -2.17%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -4.56%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.83%EV -9.10%E -3.19%K -4.92%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-12 13:59
Marathon Bet2.59I 38.61%NM 35.77%EV -6.01%E -2.32%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 31.62%EV -6.78%E -2.32%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 32.62%EV -9.42%E -3.32%K -5.12%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-12 13:59
Bovada2.57I 38.91%NM 35.87%EV -6.73%E -2.62%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.79%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.34%EV -9.10%E -3.19%K -4.92%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-12 13:59
1xBet2.55I 39.22%NM 36.64%EV -7.46%E -2.92%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -4.56%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.22%EV -7.51%E -2.59%K -3.95%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-12 13:59
Codere (IT)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.05%EV -7.46%E -2.92%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.25%EV -9.33%E -3.27%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -7.51%E -2.59%K -3.95%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-12 13:59
PointsBet (AU)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.05%EV -7.46%E -2.92%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.25%EV -9.33%E -3.27%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -7.51%E -2.59%K -3.95%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-12 13:59
BetMGM2.55I 39.22%NM 35.84%EV -7.46%E -2.92%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.64%EV -10.92%E -3.90%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.52%EV -7.51%E -2.59%K -3.95%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-12 13:59
NordicBet2.52I 39.68%NM 36.52%EV -8.55%E -3.39%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.96%EV -8.37%E -2.91%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.52%EV -6.87%E -2.35%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-12 13:59
Betsson2.52I 39.68%NM 36.52%EV -8.55%E -3.39%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.96%EV -8.37%E -2.91%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.52%EV -6.87%E -2.35%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-12 13:59
BetUS2.50I 40.00%NM 37.02%EV -9.27%E -3.71%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -4.56%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.13%EV -8.14%E -2.83%K -4.33%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-12 13:59
Betway2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -9.27%E -3.71%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -7.51%E -2.59%K -3.95%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-12 13:59
LeoVegas2.50I 40.00%NM 36.51%EV -9.27%E -3.71%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.02%EV -9.33%E -3.27%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -7.51%E -2.59%K -3.95%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-12 13:59
Paddy Power2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -9.27%E -3.71%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.44%EV -8.37%E -2.91%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.34%EV -10.69%E -3.82%K -5.94%G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-12 14:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -9.27%E -3.71%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.44%EV -8.37%E -2.91%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.34%EV -10.69%E -3.82%K -5.94%G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-12 13:59
PlayUp2.50I 40.00%NM 36.10%EV -9.27%E -3.71%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.67%EV -9.33%E -3.27%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -10.69%E -3.82%K -5.94%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-12 13:59
888sport2.50I 40.00%NM 36.09%EV -9.27%E -3.71%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.11%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.81%EV -12.29%E -4.47%K -7.02%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-12 13:59
William Hill2.50I 40.00%NM 36.09%EV -9.27%E -3.71%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.11%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.81%EV -12.29%E -4.47%K -7.02%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-12 13:59
888sport (SE)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.09%EV -9.27%E -3.71%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.11%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.81%EV -12.29%E -4.47%K -7.02%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-12 13:59
Mr Green (SE)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.09%EV -9.27%E -3.71%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.11%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.81%EV -12.29%E -4.47%K -7.02%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-12 13:59
betfred_uk2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -9.27%E -3.71%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.73%EV -12.51%E -4.55%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.26%EV -8.14%E -2.83%K -4.33%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-12 13:59
Bet Victor2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -9.27%E -3.71%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.73%EV -12.51%E -4.55%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.26%EV -8.14%E -2.83%K -4.33%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-12 13:58
Ladbrokes (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 35.69%EV -9.27%E -3.71%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -12.51%E -4.55%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.87%EV -10.69%E -3.82%K -5.94%G +0.000%12.1%2026-07-12 13:59
Neds2.50I 40.00%NM 35.69%EV -9.27%E -3.71%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -12.51%E -4.55%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.87%EV -10.69%E -3.82%K -5.94%G +0.000%12.1%2026-07-12 13:59
Ladbrokes (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 35.69%EV -9.27%E -3.71%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -12.51%E -4.55%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.87%EV -10.69%E -3.82%K -5.94%G +0.000%12.1%2026-07-12 13:59
Coral2.50I 40.00%NM 35.69%EV -9.27%E -3.71%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -12.51%E -4.55%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.87%EV -10.69%E -3.82%K -5.94%G +0.000%12.1%2026-07-12 13:59
Unibet2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -11.09%E -4.53%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.53%EV -6.15%E -2.08%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.50%EV -2.72%E -0.892%K -1.33%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-12 13:59
Unibet (NL)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -11.09%E -4.53%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.53%EV -6.15%E -2.08%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.50%EV -2.72%E -0.892%K -1.33%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-12 13:59
Casumo2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -11.09%E -4.53%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.53%EV -6.15%E -2.08%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.50%EV -2.72%E -0.892%K -1.33%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-12 13:59
Unibet (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -11.09%E -4.53%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.53%EV -6.15%E -2.08%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.50%EV -2.72%E -0.892%K -1.33%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-12 13:59
betPARX2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -11.09%E -4.53%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.53%EV -6.15%E -2.08%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.50%EV -2.72%E -0.892%K -1.33%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-12 13:59
Svenska Spel2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -11.09%E -4.53%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.53%EV -6.15%E -2.08%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.50%EV -2.72%E -0.892%K -1.33%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-12 13:59
ATG (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -11.09%E -4.53%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.53%EV -6.15%E -2.08%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.50%EV -2.72%E -0.892%K -1.33%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-12 13:59
theScore Bet2.45I 40.82%NM 37.57%EV -11.09%E -4.53%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -4.32%E -1.44%K -2.16%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-12 13:59
Tipico (DE)2.45I 40.82%NM 36.77%EV -11.09%E -4.53%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.61%EV -9.33%E -3.27%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.61%EV -9.10%E -3.19%K -4.92%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-12 13:59
betano_uk2.45I 40.82%NM 36.77%EV -11.09%E -4.53%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.17%EV -10.92%E -3.90%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.06%EV -7.51%E -2.59%K -3.95%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-12 13:59
BoyleSports2.40I 41.67%NM 36.84%EV -12.90%E -5.38%K -9.22%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.58%EV -10.92%E -3.90%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.58%EV -10.69%E -3.82%K -5.94%G +0.000%13.1%2026-07-12 13:59
Grosvenor2.38I 42.02%NM 37.44%EV -13.63%E -5.73%K -9.88%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.83%EV -10.92%E -3.90%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -7.51%E -2.59%K -3.95%G +0.000%12.2%2026-07-12 13:59
LeoVegas (SE)2.35I 42.55%NM 37.74%EV -14.72%E -6.26%K -10.90%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.68%EV -10.92%E -3.90%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.58%EV -7.51%E -2.59%K -3.95%G +0.000%12.8%2026-07-12 13:59
TABtouch2.35I 42.55%NM 37.66%EV -14.72%E -6.26%K -10.90%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.61%EV -10.92%E -3.90%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.73%EV -8.14%E -2.83%K -4.33%G +0.000%13.0%2026-07-12 13:59
Virgin Bet2.32I 43.10%NM 37.63%EV -15.81%E -6.81%K -11.97%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.74%EV -12.51%E -4.55%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.63%EV -9.10%E -3.19%K -4.92%G +0.000%14.6%2026-07-12 13:59
LiveScore Bet2.32I 43.10%NM 37.63%EV -15.81%E -6.81%K -11.97%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.74%EV -12.51%E -4.55%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.63%EV -9.10%E -3.19%K -4.92%G +0.000%14.6%2026-07-12 13:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.70I 37.04%NM 36.82%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.59%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.59%0.6%2026-07-12 13:59
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.72I 36.76%NM 36.47%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.00%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.53%0.8%2026-07-12 13:59
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.72I 36.76%NM 36.47%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.00%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.53%0.8%2026-07-12 13:59
Matchbook2.72I 36.76%NM 36.29%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.34%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.37%1.3%2026-07-12 13:59
Smarkets2.68I 37.31%NM 36.64%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.17%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.19%1.8%2026-07-12 13:59