Language:English
Nautico PE v Athletic Club (MG)
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Nautico PE (Local)
Prediction 51.01%1.96fair odd
EV -4.11%
Edge -2.19%
Kelly -4.67%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.88
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.49%51.03%50.93%52.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.681.781.781.8859.52%56.09%56.18%53.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Athletic Club (MG) (Visit)
Prediction 21.59%4.63fair odd
EV +1.49%
Edge +0.318%
Kelly +0.404%
Growth +0.006%
assuming max odds 4.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.83%21.52%21.74%22.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.394.404.7025.00%22.76%22.73%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 27.40%3.65fair odd
EV -4.10%
Edge -1.17%
Kelly -1.64%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.65%27.44%27.34%28.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.313.353.5031.75%30.19%29.85%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nautico PE (Local): 51.01%; Athletic Club (MG) (Visit): 21.59%; Draw: 27.40%. For Athletic Club (MG) (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.63. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.49%.
Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.29%EV -8.19%E -4.55%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV +1.49%E +0.318%K +0.404%G +0.006% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.68%EV -6.84%E -2.01%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-28 23:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.29%EV -8.19%E -4.55%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV +1.49%E +0.318%K +0.404%G +0.006% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.68%EV -6.84%E -2.01%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-28 23:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.35%EV -9.21%E -5.17%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.83%EV +1.49%E +0.318%K +0.404%G +0.006% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -8.21%E -2.45%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-28 22:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.35%EV -9.21%E -5.17%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.83%EV +1.49%E +0.318%K +0.404%G +0.006% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -8.21%E -2.45%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-28 22:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.35%EV -9.21%E -5.17%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.83%EV +1.49%E +0.318%K +0.404%G +0.006% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -8.21%E -2.45%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-28 22:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.35%EV -9.21%E -5.17%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.83%EV +1.49%E +0.318%K +0.404%G +0.006% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -8.21%E -2.45%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-28 22:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.35%EV -9.21%E -5.17%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.83%EV +1.49%E +0.318%K +0.404%G +0.006% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -8.21%E -2.45%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-28 22:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.35%EV -9.21%E -5.17%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.83%EV +1.49%E +0.318%K +0.404%G +0.006% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -8.21%E -2.45%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-28 22:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.35%EV -9.21%E -5.17%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.83%EV +1.49%E +0.318%K +0.404%G +0.006% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -8.21%E -2.45%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-28 22:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.49%EV -7.68%E -4.24%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.26%EV -0.665%E -0.145%K -0.185%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -9.58%E -2.90%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-28 23:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.63%EV -8.19%E -4.55%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.20%EV -0.665%E -0.145%K -0.185%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.16%EV -9.58%E -2.90%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-28 23:18 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 51.00%EV -4.11%E -2.19%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 4.54I 22.03%NM 21.12%EV -1.96%E -0.432%K -0.554%G +0.000% | 3.44I 29.07%NM 27.87%EV -5.74%E -1.67%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-28 23:15 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.62%EV -6.66%E -3.64%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.99%EV -2.82%E -0.628%K -0.807%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.38%EV -5.47%E -1.59%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-28 23:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.88%EV -10.74%E -6.14%K -14.32%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.18%EV -2.82%E -0.628%K -0.807%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -10.95%E -3.37%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-28 23:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.78%EV -9.21%E -5.17%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.71%EV -3.90%E -0.877%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.51%EV -8.21%E -2.45%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-28 23:24 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.14%EV -9.72%E -5.49%K -12.62%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.57%EV -4.98%E -1.13%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.29%EV -12.32%E -3.85%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-28 23:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.42%EV -10.74%E -6.14%K -14.32%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.45%EV -4.98%E -1.13%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.12%EV -12.32%E -3.85%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-28 23:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.42%EV -10.74%E -6.14%K -14.32%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.45%EV -4.98%E -1.13%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.12%EV -12.32%E -3.85%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-28 23:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.71%EV -11.76%E -6.80%K -16.11%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.33%EV -4.98%E -1.13%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -12.32%E -3.85%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-28 20:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 51.86%EV -12.27%E -7.13%K -17.04%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.27%EV -4.98%E -1.13%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.87%EV -12.32%E -3.85%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-28 22:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 52.00%EV -12.78%E -7.47%K -18.00%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.21%EV -4.98%E -1.13%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.79%EV -12.32%E -3.85%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-08-28 23:15 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 50.68%EV -6.15%E -3.34%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 4.39I 22.78%NM 21.24%EV -5.20%E -1.18%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 28.09%EV -9.03%E -2.72%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-28 23:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 52.10%EV -14.31%E -8.52%K -21.05%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.12%EV -6.06%E -1.39%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.78%EV -13.69%E -4.35%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-08-28 23:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 52.10%EV -14.31%E -8.52%K -21.05%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.12%EV -6.06%E -1.39%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.78%EV -13.69%E -4.35%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-08-28 23:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.81%EV -8.19%E -4.55%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.54%EV -6.50%E -1.50%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.65%EV -4.10%E -1.17%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-28 23:25 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.29%EV -6.66%E -3.64%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.40%EV -7.14%E -1.66%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -10.95%E -3.37%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-28 23:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.39%EV -5.64%E -3.05%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -9.30%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -6.84%E -2.01%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-28 21:05 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -8.19%E -4.55%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -9.30%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -6.84%E -2.01%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-28 23:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -8.19%E -4.55%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -9.30%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -6.84%E -2.01%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-28 23:25 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -8.19%E -4.55%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -9.30%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -6.84%E -2.01%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-28 21:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.87%EV -8.19%E -4.55%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -9.30%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -8.21%E -2.45%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-28 23:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.87%EV -8.19%E -4.55%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -9.30%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -8.21%E -2.45%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-28 23:25 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.15%EV -10.74%E -6.14%K -14.32%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.31%EV -9.30%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -10.95%E -3.37%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-08-28 23:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.15%EV -10.74%E -6.14%K -14.32%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.31%EV -9.30%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -10.95%E -3.37%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-08-28 23:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.15%EV -10.74%E -6.14%K -14.32%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.31%EV -9.30%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -10.95%E -3.37%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-08-28 23:25 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.15%EV -10.74%E -6.14%K -14.32%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.31%EV -9.30%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -10.95%E -3.37%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-08-28 23:25 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.19%EV -6.66%E -3.64%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.40%EV -11.46%E -2.80%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.41%EV -8.21%E -2.45%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-28 23:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.11%EV -6.66%E -3.64%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -13.62%E -3.41%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -6.84%E -2.01%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-28 21:35 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.49%EV -6.66%E -3.64%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.64%EV -13.62%E -3.41%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.87%EV -10.95%E -3.37%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-08-28 23:15 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.11%EV -8.19%E -4.55%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.55%EV -13.62%E -3.41%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -9.58%E -2.90%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-08-28 21:35 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.90I 52.63%NM 52.42% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.92% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.66% | 0.4% | 2026-08-28 23:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.88I 53.19%NM 52.88% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.88% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.24% | 0.6% | 2026-08-28 23:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.88I 53.19%NM 52.68% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.81% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.51% | 1.0% | 2026-08-28 23:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.88I 53.19%NM 52.68% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.81% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.51% | 1.0% | 2026-08-28 23:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.88I 53.19%NM 52.47% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.13% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.40% | 1.4% | 2026-08-28 23:25 |