Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Nautico PE v Athletic Club (MG)

Início: 2026-08-28 23:30 UTC

Final: Nautico PE 2–1 Athletic Club (MG)

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

40 casas de apostas (13 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Nautico PE (Local)

Previsão 51.01%1.96odd justa
EV -4.11%
Vantagem -2.19%
Kelly -4.67%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.88

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
49.49%51.03%50.93%52.35%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.681.781.781.8859.52%56.09%56.18%53.19%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Athletic Club (MG) (Visitante)

Previsão 21.59%4.63odd justa
EV +1.49%
Vantagem +0.318%
Kelly +0.404%
Crescimento +0.006%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.70

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
19.83%21.52%21.74%22.92%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
4.004.394.404.7025.00%22.76%22.73%21.28%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 27.40%3.65odd justa
EV -4.10%
Vantagem -1.17%
Kelly -1.64%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.50

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
26.65%27.44%27.34%28.31%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.153.313.353.5031.75%30.19%29.85%28.57%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Nautico PE (Local): 51.01%; Athletic Club (MG) (Visitante): 21.59%; Empate: 27.40%. Para Athletic Club (MG) (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 4.63. 9 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 4.70, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +1.49%.

Odds das casas de apostas (40 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
BetOnline.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.29%EV -8.19%E -4.55%K -10.24%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV +1.49%E +0.318%K +0.404%G +0.006%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.68%EV -6.84%E -2.01%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-28 23:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.29%EV -8.19%E -4.55%K -10.24%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV +1.49%E +0.318%K +0.404%G +0.006%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.68%EV -6.84%E -2.01%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-28 23:25
Unibet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.35%EV -9.21%E -5.17%K -11.81%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.83%EV +1.49%E +0.318%K +0.404%G +0.006%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -8.21%E -2.45%K -3.49%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-28 22:55
Casumo🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.35%EV -9.21%E -5.17%K -11.81%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.83%EV +1.49%E +0.318%K +0.404%G +0.006%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -8.21%E -2.45%K -3.49%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-28 22:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.35%EV -9.21%E -5.17%K -11.81%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.83%EV +1.49%E +0.318%K +0.404%G +0.006%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -8.21%E -2.45%K -3.49%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-28 22:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.35%EV -9.21%E -5.17%K -11.81%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.83%EV +1.49%E +0.318%K +0.404%G +0.006%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -8.21%E -2.45%K -3.49%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-28 22:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.35%EV -9.21%E -5.17%K -11.81%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.83%EV +1.49%E +0.318%K +0.404%G +0.006%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -8.21%E -2.45%K -3.49%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-28 22:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.35%EV -9.21%E -5.17%K -11.81%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.83%EV +1.49%E +0.318%K +0.404%G +0.006%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -8.21%E -2.45%K -3.49%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-28 22:55
betPARX🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.35%EV -9.21%E -5.17%K -11.81%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.83%EV +1.49%E +0.318%K +0.404%G +0.006%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -8.21%E -2.45%K -3.49%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-28 22:55
SportsBet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.49%EV -7.68%E -4.24%K -9.48%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.26%EV -0.665%E -0.145%K -0.185%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -9.58%E -2.90%K -4.17%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-28 23:20
FanDuel🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.63%EV -8.19%E -4.55%K -10.24%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.20%EV -0.665%E -0.145%K -0.185%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.16%EV -9.58%E -2.90%K -4.17%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-28 23:18
Pinnacle🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 51.00%EV -4.11%E -2.19%K -4.67%G +0.000%4.54I 22.03%NM 21.12%EV -1.96%E -0.432%K -0.554%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.87%EV -5.74%E -1.67%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-28 23:15
DraftKings🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.62%EV -6.66%E -3.64%K -8.02%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.99%EV -2.82%E -0.628%K -0.807%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.38%EV -5.47%E -1.59%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-28 23:25
BetRivers🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.88%EV -10.74%E -6.14%K -14.32%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.18%EV -2.82%E -0.628%K -0.807%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -10.95%E -3.37%K -4.87%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-28 23:15
Bovada🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.78%EV -9.21%E -5.17%K -11.81%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.71%EV -3.90%E -0.877%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.51%EV -8.21%E -2.45%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-28 23:24
PlayUp🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.14%EV -9.72%E -5.49%K -12.62%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.57%EV -4.98%E -1.13%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.29%EV -12.32%E -3.85%K -5.60%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-28 23:25
Paddy Power🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.42%EV -10.74%E -6.14%K -14.32%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.45%EV -4.98%E -1.13%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.12%EV -12.32%E -3.85%K -5.60%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-28 23:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.42%EV -10.74%E -6.14%K -14.32%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.45%EV -4.98%E -1.13%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.12%EV -12.32%E -3.85%K -5.60%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-28 23:15
Grosvenor🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.71%EV -11.76%E -6.80%K -16.11%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.33%EV -4.98%E -1.13%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -12.32%E -3.85%K -5.60%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-28 20:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 51.86%EV -12.27%E -7.13%K -17.04%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.27%EV -4.98%E -1.13%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.87%EV -12.32%E -3.85%K -5.60%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-28 22:55
TABtouch🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 52.00%EV -12.78%E -7.47%K -18.00%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.21%EV -4.98%E -1.13%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.79%EV -12.32%E -3.85%K -5.60%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-28 23:15
1xBet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 50.68%EV -6.15%E -3.34%K -7.32%G +0.000%4.39I 22.78%NM 21.24%EV -5.20%E -1.18%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.09%EV -9.03%E -2.72%K -3.89%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-28 23:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 52.10%EV -14.31%E -8.52%K -21.05%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.12%EV -6.06%E -1.39%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.78%EV -13.69%E -4.35%K -6.37%G +0.000%14.3%2026-08-28 23:15
LiveScore Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 52.10%EV -14.31%E -8.52%K -21.05%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.12%EV -6.06%E -1.39%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.78%EV -13.69%E -4.35%K -6.37%G +0.000%14.3%2026-08-28 23:15
Betway🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.81%EV -8.19%E -4.55%K -10.24%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.54%EV -6.50%E -1.50%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.65%EV -4.10%E -1.17%K -1.64%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-28 23:25
BetUS🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.29%EV -6.66%E -3.64%K -8.02%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.40%EV -7.14%E -1.66%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -10.95%E -3.37%K -4.87%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-28 23:20
Coolbet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.39%EV -5.64%E -3.05%K -6.64%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -9.30%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -6.84%E -2.01%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-28 21:05
LeoVegas🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -8.19%E -4.55%K -10.24%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -9.30%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -6.84%E -2.01%K -2.85%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-28 23:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -8.19%E -4.55%K -10.24%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -9.30%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -6.84%E -2.01%K -2.85%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-28 23:25
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -8.19%E -4.55%K -10.24%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -9.30%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -6.84%E -2.01%K -2.85%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-28 21:05
Betsson🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.87%EV -8.19%E -4.55%K -10.24%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -9.30%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -8.21%E -2.45%K -3.49%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-28 23:25
NordicBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.87%EV -8.19%E -4.55%K -10.24%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -9.30%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -8.21%E -2.45%K -3.49%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-28 23:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.15%EV -10.74%E -6.14%K -14.32%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.31%EV -9.30%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -10.95%E -3.37%K -4.87%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-28 23:25
Neds🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.15%EV -10.74%E -6.14%K -14.32%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.31%EV -9.30%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -10.95%E -3.37%K -4.87%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-28 23:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.15%EV -10.74%E -6.14%K -14.32%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.31%EV -9.30%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -10.95%E -3.37%K -4.87%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-28 23:25
Coral🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.15%EV -10.74%E -6.14%K -14.32%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.31%EV -9.30%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -10.95%E -3.37%K -4.87%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-28 23:25
Codere (IT)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.19%EV -6.66%E -3.64%K -8.02%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.40%EV -11.46%E -2.80%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.41%EV -8.21%E -2.45%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-28 23:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.11%EV -6.66%E -3.64%K -8.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -13.62%E -3.41%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -6.84%E -2.01%K -2.85%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-28 21:35
BetMGM🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.49%EV -6.66%E -3.64%K -8.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.64%EV -13.62%E -3.41%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.87%EV -10.95%E -3.37%K -4.87%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-28 23:15
betfred_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.11%EV -8.19%E -4.55%K -10.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.55%EV -13.62%E -3.41%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -9.58%E -2.90%K -4.17%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-28 21:35
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.90I 52.63%NM 52.42%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.92%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.66%0.4%2026-08-28 23:25
Matchbook◎1.88I 53.19%NM 52.88%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.88%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.24%0.6%2026-08-28 23:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.88I 53.19%NM 52.68%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.81%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.51%1.0%2026-08-28 23:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.88I 53.19%NM 52.68%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.81%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.51%1.0%2026-08-28 23:25
Smarkets◎1.88I 53.19%NM 52.47%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.13%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.40%1.4%2026-08-28 23:25