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Nautico PE v Athletic Club (MG)
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Nautico PE (Local)
Predicción 51.01%1.96momio equitativo
EV -4.11%
Ventaja -2.19%
Kelly -4.67%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.88
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
49.49%51.03%50.93%52.35%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.681.781.781.8859.52%56.09%56.18%53.19%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Athletic Club (MG) (Visitante)
Predicción 21.59%4.63momio equitativo
EV +1.49%
Ventaja +0.318%
Kelly +0.404%
Crecimiento +0.006%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.70
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.83%21.52%21.74%22.92%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.004.394.404.7025.00%22.76%22.73%21.28%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 27.40%3.65momio equitativo
EV -4.10%
Ventaja -1.17%
Kelly -1.64%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.50
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.65%27.44%27.34%28.31%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.153.313.353.5031.75%30.19%29.85%28.57%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Nautico PE (Local): 51.01%; Athletic Club (MG) (Visitante): 21.59%; Empate: 27.40%. Para Athletic Club (MG) (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.63. 9 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 4.70, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +1.49%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (40 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.29%EV -8.19%E -4.55%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV +1.49%E +0.318%K +0.404%G +0.006% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.68%EV -6.84%E -2.01%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-28 23:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.29%EV -8.19%E -4.55%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV +1.49%E +0.318%K +0.404%G +0.006% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.68%EV -6.84%E -2.01%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-28 23:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.35%EV -9.21%E -5.17%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.83%EV +1.49%E +0.318%K +0.404%G +0.006% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -8.21%E -2.45%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-28 22:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.35%EV -9.21%E -5.17%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.83%EV +1.49%E +0.318%K +0.404%G +0.006% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -8.21%E -2.45%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-28 22:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.35%EV -9.21%E -5.17%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.83%EV +1.49%E +0.318%K +0.404%G +0.006% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -8.21%E -2.45%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-28 22:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.35%EV -9.21%E -5.17%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.83%EV +1.49%E +0.318%K +0.404%G +0.006% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -8.21%E -2.45%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-28 22:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.35%EV -9.21%E -5.17%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.83%EV +1.49%E +0.318%K +0.404%G +0.006% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -8.21%E -2.45%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-28 22:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.35%EV -9.21%E -5.17%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.83%EV +1.49%E +0.318%K +0.404%G +0.006% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -8.21%E -2.45%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-28 22:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.35%EV -9.21%E -5.17%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.83%EV +1.49%E +0.318%K +0.404%G +0.006% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.82%EV -8.21%E -2.45%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-28 22:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.49%EV -7.68%E -4.24%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.26%EV -0.665%E -0.145%K -0.185%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -9.58%E -2.90%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-28 23:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.63%EV -8.19%E -4.55%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.20%EV -0.665%E -0.145%K -0.185%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.16%EV -9.58%E -2.90%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-28 23:18 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 51.00%EV -4.11%E -2.19%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 4.54I 22.03%NM 21.12%EV -1.96%E -0.432%K -0.554%G +0.000% | 3.44I 29.07%NM 27.87%EV -5.74%E -1.67%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-28 23:15 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.62%EV -6.66%E -3.64%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.99%EV -2.82%E -0.628%K -0.807%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.38%EV -5.47%E -1.59%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-28 23:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.88%EV -10.74%E -6.14%K -14.32%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.18%EV -2.82%E -0.628%K -0.807%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -10.95%E -3.37%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-28 23:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.78%EV -9.21%E -5.17%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.71%EV -3.90%E -0.877%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.51%EV -8.21%E -2.45%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-28 23:24 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.14%EV -9.72%E -5.49%K -12.62%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.57%EV -4.98%E -1.13%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.29%EV -12.32%E -3.85%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-28 23:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.42%EV -10.74%E -6.14%K -14.32%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.45%EV -4.98%E -1.13%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.12%EV -12.32%E -3.85%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-28 23:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.42%EV -10.74%E -6.14%K -14.32%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.45%EV -4.98%E -1.13%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.12%EV -12.32%E -3.85%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-28 23:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.71%EV -11.76%E -6.80%K -16.11%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.33%EV -4.98%E -1.13%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -12.32%E -3.85%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-28 20:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 51.86%EV -12.27%E -7.13%K -17.04%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.27%EV -4.98%E -1.13%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.87%EV -12.32%E -3.85%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-28 22:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 52.00%EV -12.78%E -7.47%K -18.00%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.21%EV -4.98%E -1.13%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.79%EV -12.32%E -3.85%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-08-28 23:15 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 50.68%EV -6.15%E -3.34%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 4.39I 22.78%NM 21.24%EV -5.20%E -1.18%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 28.09%EV -9.03%E -2.72%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-28 23:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 52.10%EV -14.31%E -8.52%K -21.05%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.12%EV -6.06%E -1.39%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.78%EV -13.69%E -4.35%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-08-28 23:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 52.10%EV -14.31%E -8.52%K -21.05%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.12%EV -6.06%E -1.39%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.78%EV -13.69%E -4.35%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-08-28 23:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.81%EV -8.19%E -4.55%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.54%EV -6.50%E -1.50%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.65%EV -4.10%E -1.17%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-28 23:25 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.29%EV -6.66%E -3.64%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.40%EV -7.14%E -1.66%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -10.95%E -3.37%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-28 23:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.39%EV -5.64%E -3.05%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -9.30%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -6.84%E -2.01%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-28 21:05 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -8.19%E -4.55%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -9.30%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -6.84%E -2.01%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-28 23:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -8.19%E -4.55%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -9.30%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -6.84%E -2.01%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-28 23:25 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -8.19%E -4.55%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -9.30%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -6.84%E -2.01%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-28 21:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.87%EV -8.19%E -4.55%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -9.30%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -8.21%E -2.45%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-28 23:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.87%EV -8.19%E -4.55%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -9.30%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -8.21%E -2.45%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-28 23:25 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.15%EV -10.74%E -6.14%K -14.32%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.31%EV -9.30%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -10.95%E -3.37%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-08-28 23:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.15%EV -10.74%E -6.14%K -14.32%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.31%EV -9.30%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -10.95%E -3.37%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-08-28 23:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.15%EV -10.74%E -6.14%K -14.32%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.31%EV -9.30%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -10.95%E -3.37%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-08-28 23:25 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.15%EV -10.74%E -6.14%K -14.32%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.31%EV -9.30%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -10.95%E -3.37%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-08-28 23:25 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.19%EV -6.66%E -3.64%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.40%EV -11.46%E -2.80%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.41%EV -8.21%E -2.45%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-28 23:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.11%EV -6.66%E -3.64%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -13.62%E -3.41%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -6.84%E -2.01%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-28 21:35 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.49%EV -6.66%E -3.64%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.64%EV -13.62%E -3.41%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.87%EV -10.95%E -3.37%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-08-28 23:15 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.11%EV -8.19%E -4.55%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.55%EV -13.62%E -3.41%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -9.58%E -2.90%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-08-28 21:35 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.90I 52.63%NM 52.42% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.92% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.66% | 0.4% | 2026-08-28 23:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.88I 53.19%NM 52.88% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.88% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.24% | 0.6% | 2026-08-28 23:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.88I 53.19%NM 52.68% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.81% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.51% | 1.0% | 2026-08-28 23:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.88I 53.19%NM 52.68% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.81% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.51% | 1.0% | 2026-08-28 23:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.88I 53.19%NM 52.47% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.13% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.40% | 1.4% | 2026-08-28 23:25 |