The School of Odds

Londrina v Botafogo

2026-07-18 00:00 UTC — Brazil Série B

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Londrina (Local)

Prediction 36.42%2.75fair odd
EV -7.12%
Edge -2.79%
Kelly -4.60%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.30%36.42%36.42%36.48%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.402.502.552.5542%40%39%39%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Botafogo (Visit)

Prediction 33.72%2.97fair odd
EV -7.26%
Edge -2.64%
Kelly -4.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.56%33.72%33.72%33.73%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.602.702.752.7538%37%36%36%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 29.85%3.35fair odd
EV -7.45%
Edge -2.40%
Kelly -3.55%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.79%29.85%29.85%30.15%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.903.033.103.1034%33%32%32%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet2.55I 39.22%NM 36.37%EV -7.12%E -2.79%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.72%EV -7.26%E -2.64%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.91%EV -7.45%E -2.40%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-11 00:49
Casumo2.55I 39.22%NM 36.37%EV -7.12%E -2.79%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.72%EV -7.26%E -2.64%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.91%EV -7.45%E -2.40%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-11 00:50
Unibet (NL)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.37%EV -7.12%E -2.79%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.72%EV -7.26%E -2.64%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.91%EV -7.45%E -2.40%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-11 00:49
Unibet (SE)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.37%EV -7.12%E -2.79%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.72%EV -7.26%E -2.64%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.91%EV -7.45%E -2.40%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-11 00:49
ATG (SE)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.37%EV -7.12%E -2.79%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.72%EV -7.26%E -2.64%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.91%EV -7.45%E -2.40%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-11 00:49
Svenska Spel2.55I 39.22%NM 36.37%EV -7.12%E -2.79%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.72%EV -7.26%E -2.64%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.91%EV -7.45%E -2.40%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-11 00:50
betPARX2.55I 39.22%NM 36.37%EV -7.12%E -2.79%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.72%EV -7.26%E -2.64%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.91%EV -7.45%E -2.40%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-11 00:49
BetRivers2.50I 40.00%NM 36.42%EV -8.95%E -3.58%K -5.96%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.72%EV -8.95%E -3.31%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.85%EV -8.95%E -2.93%K -4.36%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-11 00:50
Grosvenor2.45I 40.82%NM 36.48%EV -10.77%E -4.39%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.73%EV -10.63%E -4.01%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -10.44%E -3.48%K -5.22%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-11 00:49
LeoVegas (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 36.30%EV -10.77%E -4.39%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.56%EV -10.63%E -4.01%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.15%EV -11.93%E -4.04%K -6.12%G +0.000%12.5%2026-07-11 00:50
TABtouch2.43I 41.15%NM 36.39%EV -11.49%E -4.73%K -8.04%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.63%EV -11.31%E -4.30%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.98%EV -11.93%E -4.04%K -6.12%G +0.000%13.1%2026-07-11 00:50
LiveScore Bet2.40I 41.67%NM 36.35%EV -12.59%E -5.24%K -8.99%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.56%EV -12.32%E -4.74%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.09%EV -13.42%E -4.63%K -7.06%G +0.000%14.6%2026-07-11 00:49
Virgin Bet2.40I 41.67%NM 36.35%EV -12.59%E -5.24%K -8.99%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.56%EV -12.32%E -4.74%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.09%EV -13.42%E -4.63%K -7.06%G +0.000%14.6%2026-07-11 00:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.