Language:English
Londrina v Botafogo
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Londrina (Local)
Prediction 31.51%3.17fair odd
EV -2.32%
Edge -0.747%
Kelly -1.10%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.23%31.75%31.29%34.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.852.883.1039.22%35.15%34.72%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Botafogo (Visit)
Prediction 38.01%2.63fair odd
EV +0.721%
Edge +0.272%
Kelly +0.437%
Growth +0.003%
assuming max odds 2.65
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.73%37.81%38.09%39.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.372.462.422.6542.19%40.59%41.41%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 30.48%3.28fair odd
EV -3.37%
Edge -1.06%
Kelly -1.56%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.17
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.42%30.43%30.62%31.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.003.003.1734.72%33.35%33.33%31.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Londrina (Local): 31.51%; Botafogo (Visit): 38.01%; Draw: 30.48%. For Botafogo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.63. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.65, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.721%.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.43%EV -14.92%E -5.53%K -8.78%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV +0.721%E +0.272%K +0.437%G +0.003% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.48%EV -7.03%E -2.31%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-17 23:44 |
| Casumo | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.43%EV -14.92%E -5.53%K -8.78%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV +0.721%E +0.272%K +0.437%G +0.003% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.48%EV -7.03%E -2.31%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-17 23:44 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.43%EV -14.92%E -5.53%K -8.78%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV +0.721%E +0.272%K +0.437%G +0.003% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.48%EV -7.03%E -2.31%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-17 23:49 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.43%EV -14.92%E -5.53%K -8.78%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV +0.721%E +0.272%K +0.437%G +0.003% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.48%EV -7.03%E -2.31%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-17 23:44 |
| ATG (SE) | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.43%EV -14.92%E -5.53%K -8.78%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV +0.721%E +0.272%K +0.437%G +0.003% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.48%EV -7.03%E -2.31%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-17 23:44 |
| Svenska Spel | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.43%EV -14.92%E -5.53%K -8.78%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV +0.721%E +0.272%K +0.437%G +0.003% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.48%EV -7.03%E -2.31%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-17 23:44 |
| betPARX | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.43%EV -14.92%E -5.53%K -8.78%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV +0.721%E +0.272%K +0.437%G +0.003% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.48%EV -7.03%E -2.31%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-17 23:50 |
| BetRivers | 2.63I 38.02%NM 34.62%EV -17.13%E -6.51%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.02%EV -1.18%E -0.453%K -0.737%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -8.56%E -2.85%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-07-17 23:44 |
| Grosvenor | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.47%EV -18.07%E -6.95%K -11.29%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.15%EV -3.08%E -1.21%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.38%EV -10.08%E -3.42%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-07-17 23:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.29%EV -18.07%E -6.95%K -11.29%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 34.96%EV -3.08%E -1.21%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.74%EV -11.60%E -4.00%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-07-17 23:49 |
| TABtouch | 2.55I 39.22%NM 34.73%EV -19.65%E -7.70%K -12.68%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 34.73%EV -3.08%E -1.21%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.54%EV -11.60%E -4.00%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-07-17 23:50 |
| Pinnacle | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.08%EV -2.32%E -0.747%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.53%EV -4.98%E -1.99%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 3.17I 31.55%NM 30.39%EV -3.37%E -1.06%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-07-17 23:45 |
| Coolbet | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -8.62%E -2.97%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -4.98%E -1.99%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -5.51%E -1.78%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-17 23:44 |
| Tipico (DE) | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.39%EV -14.92%E -5.53%K -8.78%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.06%EV -4.98%E -1.99%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.56%EV -10.08%E -3.42%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-07-17 23:44 |
| LiveScore Bet | 2.55I 39.22%NM 34.42%EV -19.65%E -7.70%K -12.68%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.11%EV -4.98%E -1.99%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.47%EV -12.21%E -4.24%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-07-17 23:50 |
| Virgin Bet | 2.55I 39.22%NM 34.42%EV -19.65%E -7.70%K -12.68%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.11%EV -4.98%E -1.99%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.47%EV -12.21%E -4.24%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-07-17 23:44 |
| DraftKings | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.48%EV -5.47%E -1.82%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.54%EV -6.88%E -2.81%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.98%EV -3.98%E -1.26%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-17 23:44 |
| FanDuel | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -5.47%E -1.82%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -6.88%E -2.81%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -8.56%E -2.85%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-17 23:43 |
| SportsBet | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -5.47%E -1.82%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -6.88%E -2.81%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -8.56%E -2.85%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-17 23:44 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.83%EV -11.77%E -4.20%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -6.88%E -2.81%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -5.51%E -1.78%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-07-17 23:44 |
| theScore Bet | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.83%EV -11.77%E -4.20%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -6.88%E -2.81%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -5.51%E -1.78%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-07-17 23:44 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.08%EV -6.10%E -2.05%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 37.95%EV -7.26%E -2.98%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 2.99I 33.44%NM 30.97%EV -8.86%E -2.96%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-07-17 23:50 |
| NordicBet | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.01%EV -6.10%E -2.05%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 38.19%EV -8.02%E -3.31%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.80%EV -8.56%E -2.85%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-07-17 23:50 |
| Betsson | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.01%EV -6.10%E -2.05%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 38.19%EV -8.02%E -3.31%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.80%EV -8.56%E -2.85%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-07-17 23:50 |
| Bovada | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -7.04%E -2.39%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 2.41I 41.49%NM 38.16%EV -8.40%E -3.49%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -8.56%E -2.85%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-07-17 23:54 |
| LowVig.ag | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -2.32%E -0.747%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.05%EV -8.78%E -3.66%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.72%EV -7.03%E -2.31%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| BetOnline.ag | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -2.32%E -0.747%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.05%EV -8.78%E -3.66%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.72%EV -7.03%E -2.31%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| Unibet (UK) | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -5.47%E -1.82%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -8.78%E -3.66%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -8.56%E -2.85%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-17 23:50 |
| Betway | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -8.62%E -2.97%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -8.78%E -3.66%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -5.51%E -1.78%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-17 23:44 |
| LeoVegas | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.13%EV -7.04%E -2.39%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.26%EV -8.78%E -3.66%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.61%EV -8.56%E -2.85%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.13%EV -7.04%E -2.39%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.26%EV -8.78%E -3.66%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.61%EV -8.56%E -2.85%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-07-17 23:50 |
| 888sport | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -5.47%E -1.82%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -8.78%E -3.66%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -11.60%E -4.00%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-17 23:50 |
| William Hill | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -5.47%E -1.82%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -8.78%E -3.66%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -11.60%E -4.00%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-17 23:50 |
| 888sport (SE) | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -5.47%E -1.82%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -8.78%E -3.66%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -11.60%E -4.00%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-17 23:50 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -5.47%E -1.82%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -8.78%E -3.66%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -11.60%E -4.00%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-17 23:44 |
| BetMGM | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -11.77%E -4.20%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -8.78%E -3.66%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -5.51%E -1.78%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| PlayUp | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -8.62%E -2.97%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%EV -8.78%E -3.66%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -11.60%E -4.00%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-07-17 23:44 |
| Paddy Power | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.25%EV -9.25%E -3.21%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.50%EV -8.78%E -3.66%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.25%EV -12.21%E -4.24%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-07-17 23:44 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.25%EV -9.25%E -3.21%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.50%EV -8.78%E -3.66%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.25%EV -12.21%E -4.24%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-07-17 23:45 |
| betfred_uk | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.65%EV -13.35%E -4.85%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.41%EV -8.78%E -3.66%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.93%EV -8.56%E -2.85%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-07-17 23:45 |
| BetUS | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.24%EV -7.04%E -2.39%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 2.39I 41.84%NM 38.55%EV -9.16%E -3.83%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.21%EV -7.03%E -2.31%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| 1xBet | 3.08I 32.47%NM 30.36%EV -2.95%E -0.957%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.29%EV -9.54%E -4.01%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 30.36%EV -6.12%E -1.99%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| Bet Victor | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.22%EV -9.25%E -3.21%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.78%EV -9.54%E -4.01%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.00%EV -11.60%E -4.00%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| betano_uk | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.22%EV -9.25%E -3.21%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.78%EV -9.54%E -4.01%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.00%EV -11.60%E -4.00%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-07-17 23:54 |
| Neds | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.55%EV -13.35%E -4.85%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.61%EV -9.54%E -4.01%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -8.56%E -2.85%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-07-17 23:44 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.55%EV -13.35%E -4.85%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.61%EV -9.54%E -4.01%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -8.56%E -2.85%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-07-17 23:44 |
| Coral | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.50%EV -13.35%E -4.85%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 37.71%EV -9.92%E -4.19%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -8.56%E -2.85%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-07-17 23:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.50%EV -13.35%E -4.85%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 37.71%EV -9.92%E -4.19%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -8.56%E -2.85%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-07-17 23:44 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.04% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 37.91% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.04% | 0.7% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| Matchbook | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.95% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 38.10% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.95% | 1.0% | 2026-07-17 23:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.95% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 38.10% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.95% | 1.0% | 2026-07-17 23:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.95% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 38.10% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.95% | 1.0% | 2026-07-17 23:50 |
| Smarkets | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.29% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.91% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.80% | 1.5% | 2026-07-17 23:50 |