The School of Odds

Juventude v Vila Nova

Kickoff: 2026-07-10 22:04 UTC

Final: Juventude 1–0 Vila Nova

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. See how the models score across every settled game →

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Head to Head

46 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Juventude (Local)

Prediction 50.08%2.00fair odd
EV -3.84%
Edge -2.00%
Kelly -4.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.76%50.05%50.11%53.04%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.701.821.851.9259%55%54%52%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Vila Nova (Visit)

Prediction 20.48%4.88fair odd
EV +0.331%
Edge +0.068%
Kelly +0.085%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.78%20.61%20.52%22.81%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.004.514.504.9025%22%22%20%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 29.44%3.40fair odd
EV -4.32%
Edge -1.33%
Kelly -1.92%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.18%29.33%29.36%30.27%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.003.113.123.2533%32%32%31%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet1.79I 55.87%NM 51.96%EV -10.35%E -5.78%K -13.10%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.98%EV +0.331%E +0.068%K +0.085%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -5.79%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-10 22:00
Casumo1.79I 55.87%NM 51.96%EV -10.35%E -5.78%K -13.10%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.98%EV +0.331%E +0.068%K +0.085%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -5.79%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-10 22:00
Unibet (SE)1.79I 55.87%NM 51.96%EV -10.35%E -5.78%K -13.10%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.98%EV +0.331%E +0.068%K +0.085%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -5.79%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-10 22:00
Unibet (NL)1.79I 55.87%NM 51.96%EV -10.35%E -5.78%K -13.10%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.98%EV +0.331%E +0.068%K +0.085%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -5.79%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-10 22:00
betPARX1.79I 55.87%NM 51.96%EV -10.35%E -5.78%K -13.10%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.98%EV +0.331%E +0.068%K +0.085%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -5.79%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-10 22:00
ATG (SE)1.79I 55.87%NM 51.96%EV -10.35%E -5.78%K -13.10%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.98%EV +0.331%E +0.068%K +0.085%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -5.79%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-10 22:00
Svenska Spel1.79I 55.87%NM 51.96%EV -10.35%E -5.78%K -13.10%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.98%EV +0.331%E +0.068%K +0.085%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -5.79%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-10 22:00
Tipico (DE)1.70I 58.82%NM 53.04%EV -14.86%E -8.74%K -21.23%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.78%EV -1.72%E -0.358%K -0.452%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.18%EV -5.79%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-10 22:00
SportsBet1.84I 54.35%NM 50.96%EV -7.85%E -4.26%K -9.34%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -2.74%E -0.577%K -0.731%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -5.79%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-10 22:00
Pinnacle1.92I 52.08%NM 50.10%EV -3.84%E -2.00%K -4.17%G +0.000%4.74I 21.10%NM 20.30%EV -2.95%E -0.621%K -0.787%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.60%EV -4.32%E -1.33%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-10 21:59
LowVig.ag1.85I 54.05%NM 50.48%EV -7.35%E -3.97%K -8.64%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.87%EV -3.76%E -0.801%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -7.26%E -2.30%K -3.38%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-10 22:00
BetOnline.ag1.85I 54.05%NM 50.48%EV -7.35%E -3.97%K -8.64%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.87%EV -3.76%E -0.801%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -7.26%E -2.30%K -3.38%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-10 22:00
FanDuel1.83I 54.64%NM 50.99%EV -8.35%E -4.56%K -10.06%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.85%EV -3.76%E -0.801%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -5.79%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-10 21:59
LeoVegas1.88I 53.19%NM 50.10%EV -5.84%E -3.11%K -6.64%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -5.81%E -1.26%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.43%EV -5.79%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-10 22:00
Marathon Bet1.85I 54.05%NM 50.12%EV -7.35%E -3.97%K -8.64%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.16%EV -5.81%E -1.26%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.72%EV -8.14%E -2.61%K -3.84%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-10 21:59
theScore Bet1.77I 56.50%NM 51.60%EV -11.35%E -6.41%K -14.74%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.86%EV -5.81%E -1.26%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.54%EV -5.79%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-10 22:00
Grosvenor1.74I 57.47%NM 51.56%EV -12.86%E -7.39%K -17.37%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.50%EV -5.81%E -1.26%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.94%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-10 22:00
LeoVegas (SE)1.73I 57.80%NM 51.46%EV -13.36%E -7.72%K -18.30%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.35%EV -5.81%E -1.26%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.19%EV -10.20%E -3.35%K -4.98%G +0.000%12.3%2026-07-10 22:00
TABtouch1.72I 58.14%NM 51.60%EV -13.86%E -8.06%K -19.25%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.30%EV -5.81%E -1.26%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.10%EV -10.20%E -3.35%K -4.98%G +0.000%12.7%2026-07-10 22:00
NordicBet1.82I 54.95%NM 50.56%EV -8.85%E -4.86%K -10.79%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.22%EV -6.84%E -1.50%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -7.26%E -2.30%K -3.38%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-10 21:59
Betsson1.82I 54.95%NM 50.56%EV -8.85%E -4.86%K -10.79%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.22%EV -6.84%E -1.50%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -7.26%E -2.30%K -3.38%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-10 21:59
Betway1.88I 53.19%NM 49.87%EV -5.84%E -3.11%K -6.64%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -7.86%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -5.79%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-10 21:59
DraftKings1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -6.35%E -3.39%K -7.29%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -7.86%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -5.79%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-10 22:00
Bovada1.85I 54.05%NM 49.90%EV -7.35%E -3.97%K -8.64%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.51%EV -7.86%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.59%EV -8.14%E -2.61%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-10 21:59
BetUS1.85I 54.05%NM 49.90%EV -7.35%E -3.97%K -8.64%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.51%EV -7.86%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.59%EV -8.14%E -2.61%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-10 21:58
Unibet (UK)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.80%EV -7.35%E -3.97%K -8.64%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -7.86%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-10 21:59
Paddy Power1.80I 55.56%NM 50.49%EV -9.85%E -5.47%K -12.31%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -7.86%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-10 22:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.80I 55.56%NM 50.49%EV -9.85%E -5.47%K -12.31%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -7.86%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-10 22:00
Bet Victor1.75I 57.14%NM 51.29%EV -12.35%E -7.06%K -16.47%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.95%EV -7.86%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 28.77%EV -8.14%E -2.61%K -3.84%G +0.000%11.4%2026-07-10 22:00
LiveScore Bet1.70I 58.82%NM 51.43%EV -14.86%E -8.74%K -21.23%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.43%EV -7.86%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.14%EV -11.68%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000%14.4%2026-07-10 22:00
Virgin Bet1.70I 58.82%NM 51.43%EV -14.86%E -8.74%K -21.23%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.43%EV -7.86%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.14%EV -11.68%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000%14.4%2026-07-10 22:00
Codere (IT)1.86I 53.76%NM 49.44%EV -6.85%E -3.68%K -7.96%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.90%EV -9.91%E -2.25%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-10 22:00
888sport1.85I 54.05%NM 49.09%EV -7.35%E -3.97%K -8.64%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.64%EV -9.91%E -2.25%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.27%EV -11.68%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-10 21:59
William Hill1.85I 54.05%NM 49.09%EV -7.35%E -3.97%K -8.64%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.64%EV -9.91%E -2.25%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.27%EV -11.68%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-10 22:00
888sport (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.09%EV -7.35%E -3.97%K -8.64%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.64%EV -9.91%E -2.25%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.27%EV -11.68%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-10 21:59
Mr Green (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.09%EV -7.35%E -3.97%K -8.64%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.64%EV -9.91%E -2.25%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.27%EV -11.68%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-10 21:59
BoyleSports1.80I 55.56%NM 49.61%EV -9.85%E -5.47%K -12.31%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.62%EV -11.34%E -2.62%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.77%EV -11.68%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000%12.0%2026-07-10 22:00
PlayUp1.87I 53.48%NM 48.47%EV -6.35%E -3.39%K -7.29%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.32%EV -12.98%E -3.05%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.21%EV -11.68%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-10 21:59
Coolbet1.92I 52.08%NM 48.61%EV -3.84%E -2.00%K -4.17%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -14.00%E -3.33%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -5.79%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-10 21:59
BetMGM1.87I 53.48%NM 48.56%EV -6.35%E -3.39%K -7.29%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.15%EV -16.05%E -3.91%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.29%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-10 22:00
PointsBet (AU)1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -4.34%E -2.27%K -4.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -18.10%E -4.52%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-10 21:59
betfred_uk1.83I 54.64%NM 48.83%EV -8.35%E -4.56%K -10.06%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -18.10%E -4.52%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.83%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-10 21:59
Ladbrokes (AU)1.85I 54.05%NM 48.10%EV -7.35%E -3.97%K -8.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -18.10%E -4.52%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -11.68%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000%12.4%2026-07-10 21:59
Coral1.85I 54.05%NM 48.10%EV -7.35%E -3.97%K -8.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -18.10%E -4.52%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -11.68%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000%12.4%2026-07-10 22:00
Neds1.85I 54.05%NM 48.10%EV -7.35%E -3.97%K -8.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -18.10%E -4.52%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -11.68%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000%12.4%2026-07-10 21:59
Ladbrokes (UK)1.85I 54.05%NM 48.10%EV -7.35%E -3.97%K -8.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -18.10%E -4.52%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -11.68%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000%12.4%2026-07-10 22:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.94I 51.55%NM 51.06%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.81%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.13%1.0%2026-07-10 22:00
Smarkets1.93I 51.81%NM 51.19%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.76%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.06%1.2%2026-07-10 22:00
Matchbook1.94I 51.55%NM 50.85%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.13%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.02%1.4%2026-07-10 22:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.94I 51.55%NM 50.85%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.13%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.02%1.4%2026-07-10 22:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.93I 51.81%NM 50.98%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.08%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.94%1.6%2026-07-10 22:00