L’École des cotesFrançais
Juventude v Vila Nova
Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →
Résultat du match
Juventude (Local)
Prévision 50.08%2.00cote équitable
EV -3.84%
Avantage -2.00%
Kelly -4.17%
Croissance +0.000%
avec la cote maximale 1.92
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
47.76%50.05%50.11%53.04%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.701.821.851.9258.82%54.92%54.20%52.08%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Vila Nova (Visiteur)
Prévision 20.48%4.88cote équitable
EV +0.331%
Avantage +0.068%
Kelly +0.085%
Croissance +0.000%
avec la cote maximale 4.90
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
18.78%20.61%20.52%22.81%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.004.514.504.9025.00%22.19%22.22%20.41%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Match nul
Prévision 29.44%3.40cote équitable
EV -4.32%
Avantage -1.33%
Kelly -1.92%
Croissance +0.000%
avec la cote maximale 3.25
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
28.18%29.33%29.36%30.27%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.003.113.123.2533.33%32.12%32.05%30.77%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Cotes des opérateurs (46 opérateurs)
Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.
| Opérateur | Local | Visiteur ▼ | Match nul | Marge | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet | 1.79I 55.87%NM 51.96%EV -10.35%E -5.78%K -13.10%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.98%EV +0.331%E +0.068%K +0.085%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -5.79%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
| Casumo | 1.79I 55.87%NM 51.96%EV -10.35%E -5.78%K -13.10%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.98%EV +0.331%E +0.068%K +0.085%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -5.79%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.79I 55.87%NM 51.96%EV -10.35%E -5.78%K -13.10%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.98%EV +0.331%E +0.068%K +0.085%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -5.79%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.79I 55.87%NM 51.96%EV -10.35%E -5.78%K -13.10%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.98%EV +0.331%E +0.068%K +0.085%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -5.79%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
| betPARX | 1.79I 55.87%NM 51.96%EV -10.35%E -5.78%K -13.10%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.98%EV +0.331%E +0.068%K +0.085%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -5.79%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.79I 55.87%NM 51.96%EV -10.35%E -5.78%K -13.10%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.98%EV +0.331%E +0.068%K +0.085%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -5.79%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.79I 55.87%NM 51.96%EV -10.35%E -5.78%K -13.10%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.98%EV +0.331%E +0.068%K +0.085%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -5.79%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.04%EV -14.86%E -8.74%K -21.23%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.78%EV -1.72%E -0.358%K -0.452%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.18%EV -5.79%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
| SportsBet | 1.84I 54.35%NM 50.96%EV -7.85%E -4.26%K -9.34%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -2.74%E -0.577%K -0.731%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -5.79%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.10%EV -3.84%E -2.00%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 4.74I 21.10%NM 20.30%EV -2.95%E -0.621%K -0.787%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.60%EV -4.32%E -1.33%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-07-10 21:59 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.48%EV -7.35%E -3.97%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.87%EV -3.76%E -0.801%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -7.26%E -2.30%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.48%EV -7.35%E -3.97%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.87%EV -3.76%E -0.801%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -7.26%E -2.30%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
| FanDuel | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.99%EV -8.35%E -4.56%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.85%EV -3.76%E -0.801%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -5.79%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-10 21:59 |
| LeoVegas | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.10%EV -5.84%E -3.11%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -5.81%E -1.26%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.43%EV -5.79%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.12%EV -7.35%E -3.97%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.16%EV -5.81%E -1.26%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.72%EV -8.14%E -2.61%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-10 21:59 |
| theScore Bet | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.60%EV -11.35%E -6.41%K -14.74%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.86%EV -5.81%E -1.26%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.54%EV -5.79%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
| Grosvenor | 1.74I 57.47%NM 51.56%EV -12.86%E -7.39%K -17.37%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.50%EV -5.81%E -1.26%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.94%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.46%EV -13.36%E -7.72%K -18.30%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.35%EV -5.81%E -1.26%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.19%EV -10.20%E -3.35%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
| TABtouch | 1.72I 58.14%NM 51.60%EV -13.86%E -8.06%K -19.25%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.30%EV -5.81%E -1.26%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.10%EV -10.20%E -3.35%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
| NordicBet | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.56%EV -8.85%E -4.86%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.22%EV -6.84%E -1.50%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -7.26%E -2.30%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-07-10 21:59 |
| Betsson | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.56%EV -8.85%E -4.86%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.22%EV -6.84%E -1.50%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -7.26%E -2.30%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-07-10 21:59 |
| Betway | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.87%EV -5.84%E -3.11%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -7.86%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -5.79%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-10 21:59 |
| DraftKings | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -6.35%E -3.39%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -7.86%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -5.79%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
| Bovada | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.90%EV -7.35%E -3.97%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.51%EV -7.86%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.59%EV -8.14%E -2.61%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-10 21:59 |
| BetUS | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.90%EV -7.35%E -3.97%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.51%EV -7.86%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.59%EV -8.14%E -2.61%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-10 21:58 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.80%EV -7.35%E -3.97%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -7.86%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-07-10 21:59 |
| Paddy Power | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.49%EV -9.85%E -5.47%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -7.86%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.49%EV -9.85%E -5.47%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -7.86%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
| Bet Victor | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.29%EV -12.35%E -7.06%K -16.47%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.95%EV -7.86%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 28.77%EV -8.14%E -2.61%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.70I 58.82%NM 51.43%EV -14.86%E -8.74%K -21.23%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.43%EV -7.86%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.14%EV -11.68%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.70I 58.82%NM 51.43%EV -14.86%E -8.74%K -21.23%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.43%EV -7.86%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.14%EV -11.68%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.86I 53.76%NM 49.44%EV -6.85%E -3.68%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.90%EV -9.91%E -2.25%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
| 888sport | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.09%EV -7.35%E -3.97%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.64%EV -9.91%E -2.25%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.27%EV -11.68%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-07-10 21:59 |
| William Hill | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.09%EV -7.35%E -3.97%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.64%EV -9.91%E -2.25%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.27%EV -11.68%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.09%EV -7.35%E -3.97%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.64%EV -9.91%E -2.25%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.27%EV -11.68%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-07-10 21:59 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.09%EV -7.35%E -3.97%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.64%EV -9.91%E -2.25%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.27%EV -11.68%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-07-10 21:59 |
| BoyleSports | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.61%EV -9.85%E -5.47%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.62%EV -11.34%E -2.62%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.77%EV -11.68%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
| PlayUp | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.47%EV -6.35%E -3.39%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.32%EV -12.98%E -3.05%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.21%EV -11.68%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-07-10 21:59 |
| Coolbet | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.61%EV -3.84%E -2.00%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -14.00%E -3.33%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -5.79%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-10 21:59 |
| BetMGM | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.56%EV -6.35%E -3.39%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.15%EV -16.05%E -3.91%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.29%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -4.34%E -2.27%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -18.10%E -4.52%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-07-10 21:59 |
| betfred_uk | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.83%EV -8.35%E -4.56%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -18.10%E -4.52%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.83%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-07-10 21:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.10%EV -7.35%E -3.97%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -18.10%E -4.52%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -11.68%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-07-10 21:59 |
| Coral | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.10%EV -7.35%E -3.97%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -18.10%E -4.52%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -11.68%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
| Neds | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.10%EV -7.35%E -3.97%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -18.10%E -4.52%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -11.68%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-07-10 21:59 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.10%EV -7.35%E -3.97%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -18.10%E -4.52%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -11.68%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu
Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.
Plateformes d’échange (5)
| Opérateur | Local | Visiteur | Match nul | Marge ▲ | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.94I 51.55%NM 51.06% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.81% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.13% | 1.0% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
| Smarkets | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.19% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.76% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.06% | 1.2% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
| Matchbook | 1.94I 51.55%NM 50.85% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.13% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.02% | 1.4% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.94I 51.55%NM 50.85% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.13% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.02% | 1.4% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.98% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.08% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.94% | 1.6% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |