La escuela de los momiosEspañol
Juventude v Vila Nova
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Juventude (Local)
Predicción 50.08%2.00momio equitativo
EV -3.84%
Ventaja -2.00%
Kelly -4.17%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.92
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
47.76%50.05%50.11%53.04%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.701.821.851.9258.82%54.92%54.20%52.08%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Vila Nova (Visitante)
Predicción 20.48%4.88momio equitativo
EV +0.331%
Ventaja +0.068%
Kelly +0.085%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.90
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
18.78%20.61%20.52%22.81%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.004.514.504.9025.00%22.19%22.22%20.41%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empate
Predicción 29.44%3.40momio equitativo
EV -4.32%
Ventaja -1.33%
Kelly -1.92%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.25
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.18%29.33%29.36%30.27%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.113.123.2533.33%32.12%32.05%30.77%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (46 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet | 1.79I 55.87%NM 51.96%EV -10.35%E -5.78%K -13.10%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.98%EV +0.331%E +0.068%K +0.085%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -5.79%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
| Casumo | 1.79I 55.87%NM 51.96%EV -10.35%E -5.78%K -13.10%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.98%EV +0.331%E +0.068%K +0.085%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -5.79%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.79I 55.87%NM 51.96%EV -10.35%E -5.78%K -13.10%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.98%EV +0.331%E +0.068%K +0.085%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -5.79%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.79I 55.87%NM 51.96%EV -10.35%E -5.78%K -13.10%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.98%EV +0.331%E +0.068%K +0.085%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -5.79%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
| betPARX | 1.79I 55.87%NM 51.96%EV -10.35%E -5.78%K -13.10%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.98%EV +0.331%E +0.068%K +0.085%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -5.79%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.79I 55.87%NM 51.96%EV -10.35%E -5.78%K -13.10%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.98%EV +0.331%E +0.068%K +0.085%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -5.79%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.79I 55.87%NM 51.96%EV -10.35%E -5.78%K -13.10%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.98%EV +0.331%E +0.068%K +0.085%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -5.79%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.04%EV -14.86%E -8.74%K -21.23%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.78%EV -1.72%E -0.358%K -0.452%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.18%EV -5.79%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
| SportsBet | 1.84I 54.35%NM 50.96%EV -7.85%E -4.26%K -9.34%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -2.74%E -0.577%K -0.731%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -5.79%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.10%EV -3.84%E -2.00%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 4.74I 21.10%NM 20.30%EV -2.95%E -0.621%K -0.787%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.60%EV -4.32%E -1.33%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-07-10 21:59 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.48%EV -7.35%E -3.97%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.87%EV -3.76%E -0.801%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -7.26%E -2.30%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.48%EV -7.35%E -3.97%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.87%EV -3.76%E -0.801%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -7.26%E -2.30%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
| FanDuel | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.99%EV -8.35%E -4.56%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.85%EV -3.76%E -0.801%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -5.79%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-10 21:59 |
| LeoVegas | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.10%EV -5.84%E -3.11%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -5.81%E -1.26%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.43%EV -5.79%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.12%EV -7.35%E -3.97%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.16%EV -5.81%E -1.26%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.72%EV -8.14%E -2.61%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-10 21:59 |
| theScore Bet | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.60%EV -11.35%E -6.41%K -14.74%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.86%EV -5.81%E -1.26%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.54%EV -5.79%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
| Grosvenor | 1.74I 57.47%NM 51.56%EV -12.86%E -7.39%K -17.37%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.50%EV -5.81%E -1.26%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.94%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.46%EV -13.36%E -7.72%K -18.30%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.35%EV -5.81%E -1.26%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.19%EV -10.20%E -3.35%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
| TABtouch | 1.72I 58.14%NM 51.60%EV -13.86%E -8.06%K -19.25%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.30%EV -5.81%E -1.26%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.10%EV -10.20%E -3.35%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
| NordicBet | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.56%EV -8.85%E -4.86%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.22%EV -6.84%E -1.50%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -7.26%E -2.30%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-07-10 21:59 |
| Betsson | 1.82I 54.95%NM 50.56%EV -8.85%E -4.86%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.22%EV -6.84%E -1.50%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -7.26%E -2.30%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-07-10 21:59 |
| Betway | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.87%EV -5.84%E -3.11%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -7.86%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -5.79%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-10 21:59 |
| DraftKings | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -6.35%E -3.39%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -7.86%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -5.79%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
| Bovada | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.90%EV -7.35%E -3.97%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.51%EV -7.86%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.59%EV -8.14%E -2.61%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-10 21:59 |
| BetUS | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.90%EV -7.35%E -3.97%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.51%EV -7.86%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.59%EV -8.14%E -2.61%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-10 21:58 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.80%EV -7.35%E -3.97%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -7.86%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-07-10 21:59 |
| Paddy Power | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.49%EV -9.85%E -5.47%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -7.86%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.49%EV -9.85%E -5.47%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -7.86%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
| Bet Victor | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.29%EV -12.35%E -7.06%K -16.47%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.95%EV -7.86%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 28.77%EV -8.14%E -2.61%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.70I 58.82%NM 51.43%EV -14.86%E -8.74%K -21.23%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.43%EV -7.86%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.14%EV -11.68%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.70I 58.82%NM 51.43%EV -14.86%E -8.74%K -21.23%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.43%EV -7.86%E -1.75%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.14%EV -11.68%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.86I 53.76%NM 49.44%EV -6.85%E -3.68%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.90%EV -9.91%E -2.25%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
| 888sport | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.09%EV -7.35%E -3.97%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.64%EV -9.91%E -2.25%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.27%EV -11.68%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-07-10 21:59 |
| William Hill | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.09%EV -7.35%E -3.97%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.64%EV -9.91%E -2.25%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.27%EV -11.68%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.09%EV -7.35%E -3.97%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.64%EV -9.91%E -2.25%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.27%EV -11.68%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-07-10 21:59 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.09%EV -7.35%E -3.97%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.64%EV -9.91%E -2.25%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.27%EV -11.68%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-07-10 21:59 |
| BoyleSports | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.61%EV -9.85%E -5.47%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.62%EV -11.34%E -2.62%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.77%EV -11.68%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
| PlayUp | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.47%EV -6.35%E -3.39%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.32%EV -12.98%E -3.05%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.21%EV -11.68%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-07-10 21:59 |
| Coolbet | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.61%EV -3.84%E -2.00%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -14.00%E -3.33%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -5.79%E -1.81%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-10 21:59 |
| BetMGM | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.56%EV -6.35%E -3.39%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.15%EV -16.05%E -3.91%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.29%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -4.34%E -2.27%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -18.10%E -4.52%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-07-10 21:59 |
| betfred_uk | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.83%EV -8.35%E -4.56%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -18.10%E -4.52%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.83%EV -8.73%E -2.82%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-07-10 21:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.10%EV -7.35%E -3.97%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -18.10%E -4.52%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -11.68%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-07-10 21:59 |
| Coral | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.10%EV -7.35%E -3.97%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -18.10%E -4.52%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -11.68%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
| Neds | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.10%EV -7.35%E -3.97%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -18.10%E -4.52%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -11.68%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-07-10 21:59 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.10%EV -7.35%E -3.97%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -18.10%E -4.52%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -11.68%E -3.89%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.94I 51.55%NM 51.06% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.81% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.13% | 1.0% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
| Smarkets | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.19% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.76% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.06% | 1.2% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
| Matchbook | 1.94I 51.55%NM 50.85% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.13% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.02% | 1.4% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.94I 51.55%NM 50.85% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.13% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.02% | 1.4% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.98% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.08% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.94% | 1.6% | 2026-07-10 22:00 |