Language:English
Grêmio Novorizontino v Nautico PE
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Grêmio Novorizontino (Local)
Prediction 45.01%2.22fair odd
EV -4.58%
Edge -2.16%
Kelly -4.09%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.12
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.51%45.09%44.96%46.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.052.052.1251.28%48.83%48.78%47.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Nautico PE (Visit)
Prediction 25.90%3.86fair odd
EV +2.30%
Edge +0.583%
Kelly +0.780%
Growth +0.018%
assuming max odds 3.95
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.33%25.79%25.99%27.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.503.503.9530.77%28.56%28.57%25.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 29.09%3.44fair odd
EV -3.71%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -1.60%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.31
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.33%29.11%29.06%29.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.163.153.3132.79%31.67%31.75%30.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Grêmio Novorizontino (Local): 45.01%; Nautico PE (Visit): 25.90%; Draw: 29.09%. For Nautico PE (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.86. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.30%.
Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.64%EV -7.28%E -3.53%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.33%EV +2.30%E +0.583%K +0.780%G +0.018% | 3.31I 30.21%NM 29.03%EV -3.71%E -1.12%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-06-14 21:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.54%EV -7.28%E -3.53%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -1.58%E -0.416%K -0.565%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.78%EV -8.36%E -2.65%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-06-14 21:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.54%EV -7.28%E -3.53%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -1.58%E -0.416%K -0.565%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.78%EV -8.36%E -2.65%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-06-14 21:41 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.54%EV -7.28%E -3.53%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -1.58%E -0.416%K -0.565%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.78%EV -8.36%E -2.65%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-06-14 21:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.54%EV -9.98%E -4.99%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.82%EV -2.88%E -0.767%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -5.45%E -1.68%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-14 21:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 46.24%EV -10.43%E -5.24%K -10.54%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.54%EV -2.88%E -0.767%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -8.36%E -2.65%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-06-14 21:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.48%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.64%EV -4.17%E -1.13%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -5.45%E -1.68%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-14 21:40 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.39%EV -8.18%E -4.01%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 3.66I 27.32%NM 25.30%EV -5.21%E -1.42%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 3.16I 31.65%NM 29.30%EV -8.07%E -2.55%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-06-14 21:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.47%EV -6.38%E -3.07%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -6.76%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.84%EV -9.82%E -3.17%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-06-14 21:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.31%EV -6.38%E -3.07%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.96%EV -8.06%E -2.27%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.73%EV -9.82%E -3.17%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-06-11 07:10 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.95%EV -6.38%E -3.07%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -9.35%E -2.67%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -4.00%E -1.21%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-14 21:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.12%EV -7.73%E -3.77%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -9.35%E -2.67%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -5.45%E -1.68%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-06-14 21:41 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -7.73%E -3.77%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -9.35%E -2.67%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -6.91%E -2.16%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-06-14 21:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -7.73%E -3.77%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -9.35%E -2.67%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -6.91%E -2.16%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-06-14 21:40 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 44.38%EV -7.28%E -3.53%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -9.35%E -2.67%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.49%EV -9.82%E -3.17%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-06-14 21:40 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -7.73%E -3.77%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -9.35%E -2.67%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -9.82%E -3.17%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-06-14 21:41 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -7.73%E -3.77%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -9.35%E -2.67%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -9.82%E -3.17%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-06-14 21:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -7.73%E -3.77%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -9.35%E -2.67%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -9.82%E -3.17%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-06-14 21:41 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -7.73%E -3.77%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -9.35%E -2.67%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -9.82%E -3.17%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-06-14 21:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -12.23%E -6.27%K -12.88%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -9.35%E -2.67%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -9.82%E -3.17%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-06-14 21:39 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.35%EV -5.48%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -10.65%E -3.09%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -5.45%E -1.68%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-14 21:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.35%EV -5.48%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -10.65%E -3.09%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -5.45%E -1.68%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-14 21:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.35%EV -5.48%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -10.65%E -3.09%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -5.45%E -1.68%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-14 21:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.35%EV -5.48%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -10.65%E -3.09%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -5.45%E -1.68%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-14 21:41 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.35%EV -5.48%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -10.65%E -3.09%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -5.45%E -1.68%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-14 21:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.35%EV -5.48%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -10.65%E -3.09%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -5.45%E -1.68%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-14 21:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.35%EV -5.48%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -10.65%E -3.09%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -5.45%E -1.68%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-14 21:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.51%EV -4.58%E -2.16%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.74%EV -10.65%E -3.09%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -9.82%E -3.17%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-06-14 21:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.17%EV -7.73%E -3.77%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -11.94%E -3.51%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -9.82%E -3.17%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-06-14 21:41 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.86%EV -9.98%E -4.99%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.39%EV -11.94%E -3.51%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 28.76%EV -9.23%E -2.96%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-06-14 21:40 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -9.98%E -4.99%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -11.94%E -3.51%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -9.82%E -3.17%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-06-14 21:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -9.98%E -4.99%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -11.94%E -3.51%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -9.82%E -3.17%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-06-14 21:39 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 44.07%EV -7.28%E -3.53%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.10%EV -13.24%E -3.95%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.82%EV -8.36%E -2.65%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-06-14 21:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 44.17%EV -9.08%E -4.50%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.04%EV -14.53%E -4.40%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -9.82%E -3.17%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-06-14 21:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 44.17%EV -9.08%E -4.50%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.04%EV -14.53%E -4.40%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -9.82%E -3.17%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-06-14 21:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.21%EV -9.98%E -4.99%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.80%EV -14.53%E -4.40%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.99%EV -11.27%E -3.70%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-06-14 21:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 44.28%EV -10.88%E -5.50%K -11.10%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.98%EV -15.83%E -4.87%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.75%EV -11.27%E -3.70%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-06-14 21:41 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 44.28%EV -10.88%E -5.50%K -11.10%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.98%EV -15.83%E -4.87%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.75%EV -11.27%E -3.70%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-06-14 21:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 44.40%EV -11.33%E -5.75%K -11.68%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.92%EV -15.83%E -4.87%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.68%EV -11.27%E -3.70%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-06-14 21:41 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.48% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.26% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.26% | 0.5% | 2026-06-14 21:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.48% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.26% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.26% | 0.5% | 2026-06-14 21:41 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.48% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.26% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.26% | 0.5% | 2026-06-14 21:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.48% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.26% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.26% | 0.5% | 2026-06-14 21:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.00% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.61% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.39% | 1.6% | 2026-06-14 21:50 |