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Grêmio Novorizontino v Nautico PE
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Grêmio Novorizontino (Local)
Predicción 45.01%2.22momio equitativo
EV -4.58%
Ventaja -2.16%
Kelly -4.09%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.12
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
43.51%45.09%44.96%46.64%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.952.052.052.1251.28%48.83%48.78%47.17%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Nautico PE (Visitante)
Predicción 25.90%3.86momio equitativo
EV +2.30%
Ventaja +0.583%
Kelly +0.780%
Crecimiento +0.018%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.95
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.33%25.79%25.99%27.10%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.253.503.503.9530.77%28.56%28.57%25.32%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 29.09%3.44momio equitativo
EV -3.71%
Ventaja -1.12%
Kelly -1.60%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.31
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.33%29.11%29.06%29.84%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.053.163.153.3132.79%31.67%31.75%30.21%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Grêmio Novorizontino (Local): 45.01%; Nautico PE (Visitante): 25.90%; Empate: 29.09%. Para Nautico PE (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.86. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.95, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +2.30%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (39 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.64%EV -7.28%E -3.53%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.33%EV +2.30%E +0.583%K +0.780%G +0.018% | 3.31I 30.21%NM 29.03%EV -3.71%E -1.12%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-06-14 21:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.54%EV -7.28%E -3.53%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -1.58%E -0.416%K -0.565%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.78%EV -8.36%E -2.65%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-06-14 21:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.54%EV -7.28%E -3.53%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -1.58%E -0.416%K -0.565%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.78%EV -8.36%E -2.65%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-06-14 21:41 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.54%EV -7.28%E -3.53%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -1.58%E -0.416%K -0.565%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.78%EV -8.36%E -2.65%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-06-14 21:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.54%EV -9.98%E -4.99%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.82%EV -2.88%E -0.767%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -5.45%E -1.68%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-14 21:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 46.24%EV -10.43%E -5.24%K -10.54%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.54%EV -2.88%E -0.767%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -8.36%E -2.65%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-06-14 21:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.48%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.64%EV -4.17%E -1.13%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -5.45%E -1.68%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-14 21:40 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.39%EV -8.18%E -4.01%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 3.66I 27.32%NM 25.30%EV -5.21%E -1.42%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 3.16I 31.65%NM 29.30%EV -8.07%E -2.55%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-06-14 21:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.47%EV -6.38%E -3.07%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -6.76%E -1.88%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.84%EV -9.82%E -3.17%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-06-14 21:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.31%EV -6.38%E -3.07%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.96%EV -8.06%E -2.27%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.73%EV -9.82%E -3.17%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-06-11 07:10 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.95%EV -6.38%E -3.07%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -9.35%E -2.67%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -4.00%E -1.21%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-14 21:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.12%EV -7.73%E -3.77%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -9.35%E -2.67%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -5.45%E -1.68%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-06-14 21:41 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -7.73%E -3.77%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -9.35%E -2.67%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -6.91%E -2.16%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-06-14 21:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -7.73%E -3.77%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -9.35%E -2.67%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -6.91%E -2.16%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-06-14 21:40 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 44.38%EV -7.28%E -3.53%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -9.35%E -2.67%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.49%EV -9.82%E -3.17%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-06-14 21:40 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -7.73%E -3.77%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -9.35%E -2.67%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -9.82%E -3.17%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-06-14 21:41 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -7.73%E -3.77%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -9.35%E -2.67%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -9.82%E -3.17%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-06-14 21:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -7.73%E -3.77%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -9.35%E -2.67%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -9.82%E -3.17%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-06-14 21:41 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -7.73%E -3.77%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -9.35%E -2.67%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -9.82%E -3.17%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-06-14 21:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -12.23%E -6.27%K -12.88%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -9.35%E -2.67%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -9.82%E -3.17%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-06-14 21:39 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.35%EV -5.48%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -10.65%E -3.09%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -5.45%E -1.68%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-14 21:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.35%EV -5.48%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -10.65%E -3.09%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -5.45%E -1.68%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-14 21:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.35%EV -5.48%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -10.65%E -3.09%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -5.45%E -1.68%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-14 21:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.35%EV -5.48%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -10.65%E -3.09%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -5.45%E -1.68%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-14 21:41 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.35%EV -5.48%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -10.65%E -3.09%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -5.45%E -1.68%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-14 21:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.35%EV -5.48%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -10.65%E -3.09%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -5.45%E -1.68%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-14 21:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.35%EV -5.48%E -2.61%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -10.65%E -3.09%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -5.45%E -1.68%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-14 21:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.51%EV -4.58%E -2.16%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.74%EV -10.65%E -3.09%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -9.82%E -3.17%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-06-14 21:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.17%EV -7.73%E -3.77%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -11.94%E -3.51%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -9.82%E -3.17%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-06-14 21:41 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.86%EV -9.98%E -4.99%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.39%EV -11.94%E -3.51%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 28.76%EV -9.23%E -2.96%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-06-14 21:40 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -9.98%E -4.99%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -11.94%E -3.51%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -9.82%E -3.17%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-06-14 21:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -9.98%E -4.99%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -11.94%E -3.51%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -9.82%E -3.17%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-06-14 21:39 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 44.07%EV -7.28%E -3.53%K -6.87%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.10%EV -13.24%E -3.95%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.82%EV -8.36%E -2.65%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-06-14 21:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 44.17%EV -9.08%E -4.50%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.04%EV -14.53%E -4.40%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -9.82%E -3.17%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-06-14 21:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 44.17%EV -9.08%E -4.50%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.04%EV -14.53%E -4.40%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -9.82%E -3.17%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-06-14 21:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.21%EV -9.98%E -4.99%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.80%EV -14.53%E -4.40%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.99%EV -11.27%E -3.70%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-06-14 21:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 44.28%EV -10.88%E -5.50%K -11.10%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.98%EV -15.83%E -4.87%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.75%EV -11.27%E -3.70%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-06-14 21:41 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 44.28%EV -10.88%E -5.50%K -11.10%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.98%EV -15.83%E -4.87%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.75%EV -11.27%E -3.70%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-06-14 21:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 44.40%EV -11.33%E -5.75%K -11.68%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.92%EV -15.83%E -4.87%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.68%EV -11.27%E -3.70%K -5.50%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-06-14 21:41 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.48% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.26% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.26% | 0.5% | 2026-06-14 21:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.48% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.26% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.26% | 0.5% | 2026-06-14 21:41 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.48% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.26% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.26% | 0.5% | 2026-06-14 21:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.48% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.26% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.26% | 0.5% | 2026-06-14 21:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.00% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.61% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.39% | 1.6% | 2026-06-14 21:50 |