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Grêmio Novorizontino v Londrina
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Grêmio Novorizontino (Local)
Prediction 53.56%1.87fair odd
EV -5.19%
Edge -2.93%
Kelly -6.74%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.77
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.32%53.69%53.51%55.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.721.721.7761.73%58.14%58.14%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Londrina (Visit)
Prediction 18.86%5.30fair odd
EV +3.73%
Edge +0.678%
Kelly +0.829%
Growth +0.031%
assuming max odds 5.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.94%18.70%18.98%19.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.604.934.855.5021.74%20.29%20.62%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 27.58%3.63fair odd
EV -3.48%
Edge -0.995%
Kelly -1.39%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.76%27.61%27.51%28.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.353.353.5031.25%29.82%29.85%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Grêmio Novorizontino (Local): 53.56%; Londrina (Visit): 18.86%; Draw: 27.58%. For Londrina (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.30. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.73%.
Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.67%EV -8.41%E -4.92%K -11.84%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.00%EV +3.73%E +0.678%K +0.829%G +0.031% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -9.00%E -2.73%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-22 22:29 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.82%EV -8.94%E -5.26%K -12.77%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.94%EV +3.73%E +0.678%K +0.829%G +0.031% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -9.00%E -2.73%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-22 18:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.20%EV -5.19%E -2.93%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 5.43I 18.42%NM 17.67%EV +2.41%E +0.444%K +0.544%G +0.013% | 3.41I 29.33%NM 28.13%EV -5.97%E -1.75%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-22 22:45 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.66%EV -13.23%E -8.16%K -21.33%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.01%EV -0.041%E -0.008%K -0.009%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.32%EV -9.00%E -2.73%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-03-22 22:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.91%EV -8.94%E -5.26%K -12.77%G +0.000% | 5.27I 18.98%NM 17.71%EV -0.606%E -0.115%K -0.142%G +0.000% | 3.41I 29.33%NM 27.38%EV -5.97%E -1.75%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-22 22:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 54.98%EV -9.48%E -5.61%K -13.74%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.70%EV -0.984%E -0.187%K -0.231%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -6.24%E -1.84%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-22 18:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 54.98%EV -9.48%E -5.61%K -13.74%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.70%EV -0.984%E -0.187%K -0.231%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -6.24%E -1.84%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-22 18:49 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.27%EV -10.55%E -6.32%K -15.74%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.58%EV -0.984%E -0.187%K -0.231%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -6.24%E -1.84%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-22 18:45 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.82%EV -8.41%E -4.92%K -11.84%G +0.000% | 5.15I 19.42%NM 17.87%EV -2.87%E -0.557%K -0.691%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.32%EV -10.38%E -3.19%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-22 22:53 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.66%EV -7.34%E -4.24%K -10.05%G +0.000% | 5.05I 19.80%NM 18.38%EV -4.76%E -0.942%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 27.96%EV -8.45%E -2.54%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-22 22:35 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.20%EV -6.80%E -3.91%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.86%EV -5.70%E -1.14%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.94%EV -3.48%E -0.995%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-22 19:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.88%EV -10.55%E -6.32%K -15.74%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.00%EV -5.70%E -1.14%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.12%EV -11.76%E -3.67%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-03-22 22:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.85%EV -6.26%E -3.58%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.23%EV -7.58%E -1.55%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.92%EV -3.48%E -0.995%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-22 22:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.85%EV -6.26%E -3.58%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.23%EV -7.58%E -1.55%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.92%EV -3.48%E -0.995%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-22 22:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.85%EV -6.26%E -3.58%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.23%EV -7.58%E -1.55%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.92%EV -3.48%E -0.995%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-22 22:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.85%EV -6.26%E -3.58%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.23%EV -7.58%E -1.55%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.92%EV -3.48%E -0.995%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-22 22:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.50%EV -5.73%E -3.25%K -7.54%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.21%EV -7.58%E -1.55%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.29%EV -4.86%E -1.41%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-22 22:54 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.50%EV -5.73%E -3.25%K -7.54%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.21%EV -7.58%E -1.55%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.29%EV -4.86%E -1.41%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-22 22:54 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.64%EV -6.26%E -3.58%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.16%EV -7.58%E -1.55%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.21%EV -4.86%E -1.41%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-22 22:54 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.53%EV -7.87%E -4.58%K -10.93%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 18.98%EV -8.53%E -1.76%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV -7.62%E -2.27%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-22 19:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.53%EV -7.87%E -4.58%K -10.93%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 18.98%EV -8.53%E -1.76%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV -7.62%E -2.27%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-22 19:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.28%EV -7.34%E -4.24%K -10.05%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.20%EV -9.47%E -1.97%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.52%EV -7.62%E -2.27%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-22 19:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.79%EV -8.41%E -4.92%K -11.84%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.16%EV -9.47%E -1.97%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.05%EV -6.24%E -1.84%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-22 22:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.32%EV -6.26%E -3.58%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.07%EV -9.47%E -1.97%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -11.76%E -3.67%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-22 22:44 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.32%EV -6.26%E -3.58%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.07%EV -9.47%E -1.97%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -11.76%E -3.67%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-22 22:43 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.32%EV -6.26%E -3.58%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.07%EV -9.47%E -1.97%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -11.76%E -3.67%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-22 22:44 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.32%EV -6.26%E -3.58%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.07%EV -9.47%E -1.97%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -11.76%E -3.67%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-22 22:45 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.52%EV -6.26%E -3.58%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.72%EV -10.41%E -2.19%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -3.48%E -0.995%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-22 21:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.17%EV -5.73%E -3.25%K -7.54%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.70%EV -10.41%E -2.19%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.13%EV -4.86%E -1.41%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-22 22:35 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.67%EV -6.26%E -3.58%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.40%EV -10.41%E -2.19%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -9.00%E -2.73%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-22 22:54 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.81%EV -6.80%E -3.91%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.35%EV -10.41%E -2.19%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.85%EV -9.00%E -2.73%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-22 22:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.68%EV -8.41%E -4.92%K -11.84%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.32%EV -10.41%E -2.19%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -6.24%E -1.84%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-22 22:54 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.64%EV -7.87%E -4.58%K -10.93%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.06%EV -10.41%E -2.19%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.30%EV -11.76%E -3.67%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-03-22 22:34 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.61%EV -10.55%E -6.32%K -15.74%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.85%EV -10.41%E -2.19%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -10.38%E -3.19%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-03-22 22:34 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.50%EV -8.94%E -5.26%K -12.77%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.35%EV -11.36%E -2.42%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.15%EV -7.62%E -2.27%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-22 22:54 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.94%EV -10.55%E -6.32%K -15.74%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.17%EV -11.36%E -2.42%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.89%EV -7.62%E -2.27%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-03-22 22:55 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.06%EV -8.94%E -5.26%K -12.77%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.61%EV -13.24%E -2.88%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -9.00%E -2.73%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-03-22 22:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 53.35%EV -10.01%E -5.96%K -14.73%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.49%EV -13.24%E -2.88%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.16%EV -9.00%E -2.73%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-03-22 22:54 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 53.35%EV -10.01%E -5.96%K -14.73%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.49%EV -13.24%E -2.88%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.16%EV -9.00%E -2.73%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-03-22 22:54 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.84I 54.35%NM 54.57% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.74% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.69% | -0.4% | 2026-03-22 22:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.69% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.87% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.44% | 0.5% | 2026-03-22 22:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.69% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.87% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.44% | 0.5% | 2026-03-22 22:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.69% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.87% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.44% | 0.5% | 2026-03-22 22:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.81I 55.25%NM 54.45% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.99% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.56% | 1.5% | 2026-03-22 22:50 |