The School of Odds

Grêmio Novorizontino v Criciuma

2026-07-21 22:30 UTC — Brazil Série B

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Grêmio Novorizontino (Local)

Prediction 39.47%2.53fair odd
EV -7.24%
Edge -3.08%
Kelly -5.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.47%39.47%39.47%39.80%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.202.302.352.3545%44%43%43%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Criciuma (Visit)

Prediction 30.26%3.30fair odd
EV -6.18%
Edge -1.99%
Kelly -2.94%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.85%30.26%30.26%30.26%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.903.033.103.1034%33%32%32%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 30.26%3.30fair odd
EV -6.18%
Edge -1.99%
Kelly -2.94%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.13%30.26%30.26%30.46%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.883.023.103.1035%33%32%32%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -7.24%E -3.08%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -6.18%E -1.99%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -6.18%E -1.99%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-14 23:19
Unibet (SE)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -7.24%E -3.08%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -6.18%E -1.99%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -6.18%E -1.99%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-14 23:19
Casumo2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -7.24%E -3.08%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -6.18%E -1.99%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -6.18%E -1.99%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-14 23:19
betPARX2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -7.24%E -3.08%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -6.18%E -1.99%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -6.18%E -1.99%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-14 23:19
ATG (SE)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -7.24%E -3.08%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -6.18%E -1.99%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -6.18%E -1.99%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-14 23:19
Svenska Spel2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -7.24%E -3.08%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -6.18%E -1.99%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -6.18%E -1.99%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-14 23:19
Unibet (NL)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -7.24%E -3.08%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -6.18%E -1.99%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -6.18%E -1.99%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-14 23:19
BetRivers2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -9.21%E -4.00%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -9.21%E -3.07%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -9.21%E -3.07%K -4.61%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-14 23:19
Grosvenor2.25I 44.44%NM 39.80%EV -11.18%E -4.97%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.85%EV -9.21%E -3.07%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.35%EV -10.72%E -3.64%K -5.50%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-14 23:19
LeoVegas (SE)2.25I 44.44%NM 39.60%EV -11.18%E -4.97%K -8.95%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.20%EV -10.72%E -3.64%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.20%EV -10.72%E -3.64%K -5.50%G +0.000%12.2%2026-07-14 23:19
TABtouch2.23I 44.84%NM 39.61%EV -11.97%E -5.37%K -9.73%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.94%EV -10.72%E -3.64%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.46%EV -12.24%E -4.22%K -6.44%G +0.000%13.2%2026-07-14 23:19
Virgin Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 39.64%EV -13.16%E -5.98%K -10.96%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.07%EV -12.24%E -4.22%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.28%EV -12.84%E -4.46%K -6.83%G +0.000%14.7%2026-07-14 23:19
LiveScore Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 39.64%EV -13.16%E -5.98%K -10.96%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.07%EV -12.24%E -4.22%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.28%EV -12.84%E -4.46%K -6.83%G +0.000%14.7%2026-07-14 23:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.