Language:English
Grêmio Novorizontino v Criciuma
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Grêmio Novorizontino (Local)
Prediction 42.65%2.34fair odd
EV -4.04%
Edge -1.80%
Kelly -3.23%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.70%42.61%42.67%43.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.082.162.162.2548.08%46.32%46.30%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Criciuma (Visit)
Prediction 26.31%3.80fair odd
EV -1.32%
Edge -0.353%
Kelly -0.482%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.04%26.41%26.27%27.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.463.403.7531.25%28.92%29.41%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 31.04%3.22fair odd
EV -3.78%
Edge -1.22%
Kelly -1.80%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.86%30.98%31.06%31.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.872.962.953.1034.84%33.80%33.90%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Grêmio Novorizontino (Local): 42.65%; Criciuma (Visit): 26.31%; Draw: 31.04%. For Criciuma (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.80. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.75, with an expected value of -1.32%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.83%EV -4.04%E -1.80%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 3.71I 26.95%NM 25.98%EV -2.38%E -0.641%K -0.877%G +0.000% | 3.09I 32.36%NM 31.19%EV -4.09%E -1.32%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-07-21 22:20 |
| 1xBet | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.86%EV -4.90%E -2.20%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 3.48I 28.74%NM 26.82%EV -8.43%E -2.42%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.32%EV -7.50%E -2.52%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-21 22:25 |
| DraftKings | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.87%EV -6.18%E -2.81%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.20%EV -5.27%E -1.46%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.93%EV -5.33%E -1.75%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-21 22:15 |
| LowVig.ag | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.81%EV -6.18%E -2.81%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.80%EV -3.96%E -1.08%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.39%EV -6.88%E -2.29%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-21 22:25 |
| BetUS | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.81%EV -6.18%E -2.81%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.80%EV -3.96%E -1.08%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.39%EV -6.88%E -2.29%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-21 22:25 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -6.18%E -2.81%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -5.27%E -1.46%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -6.88%E -2.29%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-21 15:35 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.50%EV -6.18%E -2.81%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.34%EV -6.59%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.17%EV -6.88%E -2.29%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-21 22:25 |
| Coolbet | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -6.18%E -2.81%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -10.53%E -3.10%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -3.78%E -1.22%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-21 22:15 |
| Unibet | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.22%EV -6.18%E -2.81%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -10.53%E -3.10%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV -5.33%E -1.75%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-21 22:25 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.22%EV -6.18%E -2.81%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -10.53%E -3.10%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV -5.33%E -1.75%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-21 22:25 |
| Casumo | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.22%EV -6.18%E -2.81%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -10.53%E -3.10%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV -5.33%E -1.75%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-21 22:25 |
| betPARX | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.22%EV -6.18%E -2.81%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -10.53%E -3.10%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV -5.33%E -1.75%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-21 22:25 |
| ATG (SE) | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.22%EV -6.18%E -2.81%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -10.53%E -3.10%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV -5.33%E -1.75%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-21 22:25 |
| Svenska Spel | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.22%EV -6.18%E -2.81%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -10.53%E -3.10%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV -5.33%E -1.75%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-21 22:25 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.22%EV -6.18%E -2.81%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -10.53%E -3.10%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV -5.33%E -1.75%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-21 22:25 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -6.18%E -2.81%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -10.53%E -3.10%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -6.88%E -2.29%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-07-21 22:15 |
| 888sport | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.80%EV -6.18%E -2.81%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -7.90%E -2.26%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.93%EV -10.61%E -3.68%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-07-21 22:15 |
| William Hill | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.80%EV -6.18%E -2.81%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -7.90%E -2.26%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.93%EV -10.61%E -3.68%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-07-21 22:15 |
| 888sport (SE) | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.80%EV -6.18%E -2.81%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -7.90%E -2.26%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.93%EV -10.61%E -3.68%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-07-21 22:15 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.80%EV -6.18%E -2.81%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -7.90%E -2.26%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.93%EV -10.61%E -3.68%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-07-21 22:15 |
| Betsson | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.63%EV -7.03%E -3.22%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.18%EV -6.59%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.19%EV -7.50%E -2.52%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-21 15:30 |
| NordicBet | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.63%EV -7.03%E -3.22%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.18%EV -6.59%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.19%EV -7.50%E -2.52%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-21 15:30 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.16I 46.30%NM 42.92%EV -7.88%E -3.65%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.54I 28.25%NM 26.19%EV -6.85%E -1.94%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.90%EV -6.88%E -2.29%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-21 22:15 |
| Bovada | 2.16I 46.30%NM 42.72%EV -7.88%E -3.65%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.99%EV -6.59%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.28%EV -8.43%E -2.86%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-21 22:19 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.16I 46.30%NM 42.34%EV -7.88%E -3.65%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.13%EV -7.90%E -2.26%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -9.99%E -3.44%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-07-21 15:35 |
| SportsBet | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.67%EV -8.31%E -3.86%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -1.32%E -0.353%K -0.482%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.30%EV -6.88%E -2.29%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-21 22:15 |
| FanDuel | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.52%EV -8.31%E -3.86%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -2.64%E -0.714%K -0.978%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.88%E -2.29%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-21 22:15 |
| Betway | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.22%EV -8.31%E -3.86%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -5.27%E -1.46%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -6.88%E -2.29%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-21 16:20 |
| theScore Bet | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -8.31%E -3.86%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -10.53%E -3.10%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -6.88%E -2.29%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-07-21 22:15 |
| LeoVegas | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.52%EV -8.31%E -3.86%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.50%EV -9.22%E -2.67%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.99%EV -8.43%E -2.86%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-07-21 22:15 |
| BetMGM | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -8.31%E -3.86%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -7.90%E -2.26%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -9.99%E -3.44%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-07-21 15:35 |
| PlayUp | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -8.31%E -3.86%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.64%EV -10.53%E -3.10%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -9.99%E -3.44%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-07-21 21:50 |
| Bet Victor | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.79%EV -8.31%E -3.86%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.23%EV -13.17%E -3.99%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -9.99%E -3.44%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-07-21 22:25 |
| betfred_uk | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.70%EV -8.31%E -3.86%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.17%EV -13.17%E -3.99%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -10.61%E -3.68%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-07-21 22:15 |
| BetRivers | 2.12I 47.17%NM 42.96%EV -9.59%E -4.52%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.18%EV -11.85%E -3.54%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.86%EV -5.33%E -1.75%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-07-21 22:05 |
| Grosvenor | 2.12I 47.17%NM 42.18%EV -9.59%E -4.52%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.51%EV -14.48%E -4.46%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.31%EV -8.43%E -2.86%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-07-21 22:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.12I 47.17%NM 41.96%EV -9.59%E -4.52%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.37%EV -14.48%E -4.46%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.67%EV -9.99%E -3.44%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-07-21 22:25 |
| Paddy Power | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -10.44%E -4.97%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.23%EV -5.27%E -1.46%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.53%EV -10.61%E -3.68%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-07-21 22:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -10.44%E -4.97%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.23%EV -5.27%E -1.46%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.53%EV -10.61%E -3.68%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-07-21 22:20 |
| Tipico (DE) | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.93%EV -10.44%E -4.97%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.51%EV -10.53%E -3.10%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.56%EV -8.43%E -2.86%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-07-21 19:55 |
| betano_uk | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.70%EV -10.44%E -4.97%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.38%EV -10.53%E -3.10%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -9.99%E -3.44%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-07-21 22:15 |
| Neds | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.61%EV -10.44%E -4.97%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -10.53%E -3.10%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.07%EV -10.61%E -3.68%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-07-21 15:35 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.61%EV -10.44%E -4.97%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -10.53%E -3.10%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.07%EV -10.61%E -3.68%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-07-21 15:34 |
| BoyleSports | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.61%EV -10.44%E -4.97%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -10.53%E -3.10%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.07%EV -10.61%E -3.68%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-07-21 14:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.56%EV -10.44%E -4.97%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -10.53%E -3.10%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 31.15%EV -10.92%E -3.80%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-07-21 15:35 |
| Coral | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.56%EV -10.44%E -4.97%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -10.53%E -3.10%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 31.15%EV -10.92%E -3.80%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-07-21 15:35 |
| TABtouch | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.19%EV -10.44%E -4.97%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.26%EV -14.48%E -4.46%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.55%EV -9.99%E -3.44%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-07-21 22:25 |
| Virgin Bet | 2.08I 48.08%NM 42.15%EV -11.29%E -5.43%K -10.46%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.40%EV -15.80%E -4.94%K -7.18%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.44%EV -10.61%E -3.68%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-07-21 22:25 |
| LiveScore Bet | 2.08I 48.08%NM 42.15%EV -11.29%E -5.43%K -10.46%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.40%EV -15.80%E -4.94%K -7.18%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.44%EV -10.61%E -3.68%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-07-21 22:25 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 2.26I 44.25%NM 44.03% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.88% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.10% | 0.5% | 2026-07-21 22:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 2.26I 44.25%NM 44.03% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.88% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.10% | 0.5% | 2026-07-21 22:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.89% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.11% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.00% | 0.8% | 2026-07-21 22:25 |
| Smarkets | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.68% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.99% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.34% | 1.3% | 2026-07-21 22:20 |
| Matchbook | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.68% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.99% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.34% | 1.3% | 2026-07-21 22:25 |