Language:English
Grêmio Novorizontino v Atletico Goianiense
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Grêmio Novorizontino (Local)
Prediction 48.23%2.07fair odd
EV -3.54%
Edge -1.77%
Kelly -3.54%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.07%48.35%48.30%51.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.751.891.912.0057.14%52.78%52.36%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Atletico Goianiense (Visit)
Prediction 23.12%4.33fair odd
EV +4.04%
Edge +0.897%
Kelly +1.15%
Growth +0.047%
assuming max odds 4.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.09%22.97%23.08%24.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.994.004.5027.78%25.06%25.00%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 28.65%3.49fair odd
EV -3.16%
Edge -0.935%
Kelly -1.33%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.38
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.71%28.68%28.62%30.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.203.203.3833.33%31.29%31.25%29.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Grêmio Novorizontino (Local): 48.23%; Atletico Goianiense (Visit): 23.12%; Draw: 28.65%. For Atletico Goianiense (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.33. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.04%.
Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.66%EV -15.60%E -8.91%K -20.80%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.09%EV +4.04%E +0.897%K +1.15%G +0.047% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -8.32%E -2.60%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-07-04 18:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.85%EV -6.92%E -3.58%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 4.49I 22.27%NM 21.43%EV +3.80%E +0.847%K +1.09%G +0.041% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.72%EV -4.02%E -1.20%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-07-04 18:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.01%EV -7.88%E -4.13%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV +1.72%E +0.392%K +0.507%G +0.009% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.72%EV -9.75%E -3.10%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-04 18:45 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.78%EV -7.88%E -4.13%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.17%EV +1.72%E +0.392%K +0.507%G +0.009% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -11.18%E -3.61%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-04 18:45 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.17%EV -9.81%E -5.25%K -11.27%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.64%EV -1.74%E -0.410%K -0.537%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.19%EV -9.75%E -3.10%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-07-04 18:54 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -7.88%E -4.13%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.36%EV -2.90%E -0.690%K -0.906%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -5.45%E -1.65%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-04 18:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.31%EV -8.36%E -4.40%K -9.29%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -2.90%E -0.690%K -0.906%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.39%EV -5.45%E -1.65%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-04 18:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.31%EV -8.36%E -4.40%K -9.29%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -2.90%E -0.690%K -0.906%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.39%EV -5.45%E -1.65%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-04 18:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.61%EV -10.77%E -5.82%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.41%EV -2.90%E -0.690%K -0.906%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.98%EV -14.05%E -4.68%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-07-04 18:45 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -7.88%E -4.13%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.57%EV -4.06%E -0.977%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.39%EV -5.45%E -1.65%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-04 18:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.39%EV -5.95%E -3.05%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.02%EV -5.21%E -1.27%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -5.45%E -1.65%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-04 18:45 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.29%EV -8.36%E -4.40%K -9.29%G +0.000% | 4.07I 24.57%NM 23.01%EV -5.91%E -1.45%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 3.38I 29.59%NM 27.71%EV -3.16%E -0.935%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-04 18:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.50%EV -7.40%E -3.85%K -8.04%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.28%EV -7.52%E -1.88%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.22%EV -5.45%E -1.65%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-04 18:54 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.69%EV -5.95%E -3.05%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -7.52%E -1.88%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -8.32%E -2.60%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-04 18:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.63%EV -7.88%E -4.13%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -7.52%E -1.88%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -5.45%E -1.65%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-04 18:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.63%EV -7.88%E -4.13%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -7.52%E -1.88%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -5.45%E -1.65%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-04 18:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.63%EV -7.88%E -4.13%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -7.52%E -1.88%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -5.45%E -1.65%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-04 18:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.63%EV -7.88%E -4.13%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -7.52%E -1.88%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -5.45%E -1.65%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-04 18:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.63%EV -7.88%E -4.13%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -7.52%E -1.88%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -5.45%E -1.65%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-04 18:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.63%EV -7.88%E -4.13%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -7.52%E -1.88%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -5.45%E -1.65%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-04 18:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -7.88%E -4.13%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -7.52%E -1.88%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -11.18%E -3.61%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-07-04 18:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -7.88%E -4.13%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -7.52%E -1.88%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -11.18%E -3.61%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-07-04 18:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -7.88%E -4.13%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -7.52%E -1.88%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -11.18%E -3.61%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-07-04 18:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -7.88%E -4.13%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -7.52%E -1.88%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -11.18%E -3.61%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-07-04 18:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.74%EV -9.81%E -5.25%K -11.27%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -7.52%E -1.88%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -8.32%E -2.60%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-07-04 18:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.07%EV -7.88%E -4.13%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.24%EV -8.68%E -2.20%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.69%EV -8.32%E -2.60%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-07-04 18:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.41%EV -5.95%E -3.05%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.70%EV -9.84%E -2.52%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -8.32%E -2.60%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-07-04 18:45 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.41%EV -5.95%E -3.05%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.70%EV -9.84%E -2.52%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -8.32%E -2.60%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-07-04 18:45 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.10%EV -9.81%E -5.25%K -11.27%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.07%EV -9.84%E -2.52%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 28.83%EV -10.61%E -3.40%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-07-04 18:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.28%EV -10.77%E -5.82%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.90%EV -9.84%E -2.52%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.81%EV -11.18%E -3.61%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-07-04 18:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.28%EV -10.77%E -5.82%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.90%EV -9.84%E -2.52%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.81%EV -11.18%E -3.61%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-07-04 18:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.28%EV -10.77%E -5.82%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.90%EV -9.84%E -2.52%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.81%EV -11.18%E -3.61%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-07-04 18:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.28%EV -10.77%E -5.82%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.90%EV -9.84%E -2.52%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.81%EV -11.18%E -3.61%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-07-04 18:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.84%EV -3.54%E -1.77%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.33%EV -10.99%E -2.85%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.83%EV -6.89%E -2.12%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-04 16:55 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 47.52%EV -6.92%E -3.58%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.82%EV -10.99%E -2.85%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -8.32%E -2.60%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-07-04 18:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.38%EV -9.33%E -4.96%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.63%EV -10.99%E -2.85%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.99%EV -6.89%E -2.12%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-07-04 18:35 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 47.21%EV -7.40%E -3.85%K -8.04%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.55%EV -10.99%E -2.85%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.24%EV -11.18%E -3.61%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-07-04 18:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.36%EV -10.77%E -5.82%K -12.67%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.24%EV -10.99%E -2.85%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.40%EV -9.75%E -3.10%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-07-04 18:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.48%EV -11.74%E -6.41%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.35%EV -12.15%E -3.20%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.17%EV -9.75%E -3.10%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-07-04 18:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.48%EV -11.74%E -6.41%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.35%EV -12.15%E -3.20%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.17%EV -9.75%E -3.10%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-07-04 18:55 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.26%EV -11.74%E -6.41%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.24%EV -12.15%E -3.20%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.49%EV -11.18%E -3.61%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-07-04 18:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 48.39%EV -12.70%E -7.02%K -15.68%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.36%EV -13.30%E -3.55%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.25%EV -11.18%E -3.61%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-07-04 18:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 48.39%EV -12.70%E -7.02%K -15.68%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.36%EV -13.30%E -3.55%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.25%EV -11.18%E -3.61%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-07-04 18:55 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.22%EV -5.95%E -3.05%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -14.46%E -3.91%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -5.45%E -1.65%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-04 16:25 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.81%EV -5.95%E -3.05%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.67%EV -14.46%E -3.91%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.52%EV -8.32%E -2.60%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-07-04 16:55 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.07%EV -5.95%E -3.05%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -16.77%E -4.66%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -11.18%E -3.61%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-07-04 16:25 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.99I 50.25%NM 50.20% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.98% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.82% | 0.1% | 2026-07-04 18:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.99I 50.25%NM 50.00% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.30% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.70% | 0.5% | 2026-07-04 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.99I 50.25%NM 49.79% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.64% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.57% | 0.9% | 2026-07-04 18:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.98I 50.51%NM 49.91% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.59% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.50% | 1.2% | 2026-07-04 18:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.99I 50.25%NM 49.57% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.99% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.44% | 1.4% | 2026-07-04 18:55 |