Language:English
Fortaleza v São Bernardo
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Fortaleza (Local)
Prediction 54.28%1.84fair odd
EV -1.75%
Edge -0.968%
Kelly -2.16%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.81
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.71%54.09%54.53%57.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.691.681.8163.69%59.26%59.52%55.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
São Bernardo (Visit)
Prediction 18.18%5.50fair odd
EV +0.009%
Edge +0.002%
Kelly +0.002%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 5.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.46%18.28%18.08%20.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.045.005.5022.22%19.83%20.00%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 27.54%3.63fair odd
EV -0.872%
Edge -0.242%
Kelly -0.335%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.87%27.63%27.39%29.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.353.353.6032.26%29.82%29.85%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fortaleza (Local): 54.28%; São Bernardo (Visit): 18.18%; Draw: 27.54%. For São Bernardo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.499. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.500, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.009%.
Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.35%EV -7.18%E -4.20%K -10.11%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.21%EV +0.009%E +0.002%K +0.002%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.44%EV -5.00%E -1.45%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-19 21:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.28%EV -7.72%E -4.54%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.09%EV +0.009%E +0.002%K +0.002%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.64%EV -6.38%E -1.88%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-19 22:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.42%EV -8.27%E -4.89%K -11.98%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.03%EV +0.009%E +0.002%K +0.002%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -6.38%E -1.88%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-19 21:45 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.72%EV -9.35%E -5.60%K -13.96%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV +0.009%E +0.002%K +0.002%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.37%EV -6.38%E -1.88%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-19 16:24 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.72%EV -9.35%E -5.60%K -13.96%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV +0.009%E +0.002%K +0.002%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.37%EV -6.38%E -1.88%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-19 21:45 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.67%EV -14.78%E -9.41%K -25.93%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.46%EV +0.009%E +0.002%K +0.002%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -3.63%E -1.04%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-08-19 22:05 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 53.00%EV -1.75%E -0.968%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 5.35I 18.69%NM 17.93%EV -2.72%E -0.508%K -0.625%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.07%EV -9.13%E -2.77%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-19 22:29 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.51%EV -10.44%E -6.33%K -16.06%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.59%EV -3.63%E -0.684%K -0.844%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.90%EV -0.872%E -0.242%K -0.335%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-19 22:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.51%EV -10.44%E -6.33%K -16.06%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.59%EV -3.63%E -0.684%K -0.844%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.90%EV -0.872%E -0.242%K -0.335%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-19 22:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.51%EV -10.44%E -6.33%K -16.06%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.59%EV -3.63%E -0.684%K -0.844%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.90%EV -0.872%E -0.242%K -0.335%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-19 22:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.51%EV -10.44%E -6.33%K -16.06%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.59%EV -3.63%E -0.684%K -0.844%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.90%EV -0.872%E -0.242%K -0.335%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-19 22:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.51%EV -10.44%E -6.33%K -16.06%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.59%EV -3.63%E -0.684%K -0.844%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.90%EV -0.872%E -0.242%K -0.335%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-19 22:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.51%EV -10.44%E -6.33%K -16.06%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.59%EV -3.63%E -0.684%K -0.844%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.90%EV -0.872%E -0.242%K -0.335%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-19 22:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.51%EV -10.44%E -6.33%K -16.06%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.59%EV -3.63%E -0.684%K -0.844%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.90%EV -0.872%E -0.242%K -0.335%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-19 22:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.06%EV -6.09%E -3.52%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 5.29I 18.90%NM 17.68%EV -3.81%E -0.720%K -0.888%G +0.000% | 3.31I 30.21%NM 28.26%EV -8.86%E -2.68%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-19 22:29 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.83%EV -7.72%E -4.54%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.75%EV -4.54%E -0.864%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -6.38%E -1.88%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-19 22:10 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.81%EV -3.92%E -2.22%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.98%EV -5.45%E -1.05%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -11.89%E -3.71%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-19 22:29 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.14%EV -7.18%E -4.20%K -10.11%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.80%EV -5.45%E -1.05%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -9.13%E -2.77%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-19 22:29 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.15%EV -5.55%E -3.19%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 5.15I 19.42%NM 17.96%EV -6.35%E -1.23%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.90%EV -11.89%E -3.71%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-19 22:29 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.15%EV -5.55%E -3.19%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 5.15I 19.42%NM 17.96%EV -6.35%E -1.23%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.90%EV -11.89%E -3.71%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-19 22:29 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.62%EV -8.81%E -5.24%K -12.95%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.99%EV -7.26%E -1.42%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.39%EV -7.76%E -2.32%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-19 22:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.21%EV -9.35%E -5.60%K -13.96%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.44%EV -9.08%E -1.82%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.34%EV -3.63%E -1.04%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-19 19:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -9.35%E -5.60%K -13.96%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -9.08%E -1.82%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -6.38%E -1.88%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-08-19 22:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -9.35%E -5.60%K -13.96%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -9.08%E -1.82%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -6.38%E -1.88%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-08-19 21:00 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.42%EV -8.81%E -5.24%K -12.95%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.29%EV -9.08%E -1.82%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.29%EV -7.76%E -2.32%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-08-19 22:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 54.64%EV -10.44%E -6.33%K -16.06%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.03%EV -9.08%E -1.82%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.32%EV -9.13%E -2.77%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-08-19 21:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 55.69%EV -12.61%E -7.83%K -20.67%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.93%EV -9.08%E -1.82%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -6.38%E -1.88%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-08-19 22:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 55.85%EV -13.15%E -8.22%K -21.92%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.87%EV -9.08%E -1.82%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.28%EV -6.38%E -1.88%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-08-19 22:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 54.87%EV -12.07%E -7.45%K -19.46%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -9.08%E -1.82%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.35%EV -10.51%E -3.23%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-08-19 13:35 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 55.90%EV -14.78%E -9.41%K -25.93%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 17.91%EV -10.90%E -2.22%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.20%EV -7.76%E -2.32%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-08-19 22:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 55.90%EV -14.78%E -9.41%K -25.93%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 17.91%EV -10.90%E -2.22%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.20%EV -7.76%E -2.32%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-08-19 22:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 55.90%EV -14.78%E -9.41%K -25.93%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 17.91%EV -10.90%E -2.22%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.20%EV -7.76%E -2.32%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-08-19 22:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.32%EV -5.01%E -2.86%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.07%EV -12.72%E -2.65%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -11.89%E -3.71%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-19 22:28 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.83%EV -6.09%E -3.52%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.04%EV -12.72%E -2.65%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.12%EV -10.51%E -3.23%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-08-19 22:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.83%EV -6.09%E -3.52%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.04%EV -12.72%E -2.65%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.12%EV -10.51%E -3.23%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-08-19 22:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 54.24%EV -10.44%E -6.33%K -16.06%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.64%EV -12.72%E -2.65%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.12%EV -9.13%E -2.77%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-08-19 21:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 54.24%EV -10.44%E -6.33%K -16.06%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.64%EV -12.72%E -2.65%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.12%EV -9.13%E -2.77%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-08-19 20:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.68%EV -3.38%E -1.90%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -13.63%E -2.87%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.58%EV -6.38%E -1.88%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-19 22:28 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 51.74%EV -2.84%E -1.59%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.50%EV -13.63%E -2.87%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 28.76%EV -11.34%E -3.52%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-19 22:29 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.16%EV -7.72%E -4.54%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.03%EV -13.63%E -2.87%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -10.51%E -3.23%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-19 22:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.71%EV -2.29%E -1.27%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -16.36%E -3.56%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -14.64%E -4.72%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-19 22:29 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.71%EV -2.29%E -1.27%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -16.36%E -3.56%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -14.64%E -4.72%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-19 22:29 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.68%EV -5.55%E -3.19%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.37%EV -18.17%E -4.04%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.96%EV -6.38%E -1.88%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-19 22:29 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.17%EV -6.09%E -3.52%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.06%EV -18.17%E -4.04%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.77%EV -10.51%E -3.23%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-08-19 22:29 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.48%EV -6.09%E -3.52%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.79%EV -18.17%E -4.04%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -14.64%E -4.72%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-08-19 22:29 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.48%EV -6.09%E -3.52%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.79%EV -18.17%E -4.04%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -14.64%E -4.72%K -6.97%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-08-19 22:29 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.77I 56.50%NM 56.23% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.87% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.90% | 0.5% | 2026-08-19 22:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.77I 56.50%NM 56.07% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.11% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.82% | 0.8% | 2026-08-19 22:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.77I 56.50%NM 56.07% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.11% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.82% | 0.8% | 2026-08-19 22:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.77I 56.50%NM 56.07% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.11% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.82% | 0.8% | 2026-08-19 22:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.76I 56.82%NM 56.04% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.30% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.66% | 1.4% | 2026-08-19 22:10 |