Language:English
Fortaleza v Goiás
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Fortaleza (Local)
Prediction 53.15%1.88fair odd
EV -2.73%
Edge -1.49%
Kelly -3.29%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.83
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.14%53.18%53.15%55.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.751.751.8361.73%57.11%57.14%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Goiás (Visit)
Prediction 18.71%5.34fair odd
EV -0.840%
Edge -0.158%
Kelly -0.195%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 5.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.01%18.67%18.75%20.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.354.774.755.3022.99%20.98%21.05%18.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 28.14%3.55fair odd
EV -4.32%
Edge -1.27%
Kelly -1.80%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.05%28.15%28.11%29.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.263.253.4033.33%30.69%30.77%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fortaleza (Local): 53.15%; Goiás (Visit): 18.71%; Draw: 28.14%. For Goiás (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.34. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 5.30, with an expected value of -0.840%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (44 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.42%EV -2.73%E -1.49%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -15.81%E -3.51%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.67%EV -4.32%E -1.27%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-02 23:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.42%EV -2.73%E -1.49%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -15.81%E -3.51%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.67%EV -4.32%E -1.27%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-02 23:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.42%EV -2.73%E -1.49%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -15.81%E -3.51%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.67%EV -4.32%E -1.27%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-02 23:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.42%EV -2.73%E -1.49%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -15.81%E -3.51%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.67%EV -4.32%E -1.27%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-02 23:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.42%EV -2.73%E -1.49%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -15.81%E -3.51%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.67%EV -4.32%E -1.27%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-02 23:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.42%EV -2.73%E -1.49%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -15.81%E -3.51%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.67%EV -4.32%E -1.27%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-02 23:01 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.42%EV -2.73%E -1.49%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -15.81%E -3.51%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.67%EV -4.32%E -1.27%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-02 23:01 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.48%EV -3.80%E -2.10%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.71%EV -15.81%E -3.51%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.81%EV -5.73%E -1.71%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-02 23:01 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.26%EV -4.33%E -2.40%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 5.29I 18.90%NM 18.12%EV -1.03%E -0.194%K -0.239%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.62%EV -5.73%E -1.71%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-02 23:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 51.30%EV -4.86%E -2.72%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.87%EV -17.68%E -4.02%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -7.14%E -2.16%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-02 23:01 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.44%EV -5.39%E -3.03%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.81%EV -17.68%E -4.02%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.75%EV -7.14%E -2.16%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-02 23:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.12%EV -5.92%E -3.35%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -6.45%E -1.29%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.07%EV -5.73%E -1.71%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-02 23:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.82%EV -5.92%E -3.35%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.68%EV -11.13%E -2.34%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.50%EV -4.32%E -1.27%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-02 23:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.58%EV -5.92%E -3.35%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.75%EV -17.68%E -4.02%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.67%EV -7.14%E -2.16%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-02 23:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.14%EV -5.92%E -3.35%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.12%EV -15.81%E -3.51%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.74%EV -11.36%E -3.61%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-05-02 23:10 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.37%EV -6.45%E -3.67%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.72%EV -0.840%E -0.158%K -0.195%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -8.55%E -2.63%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-02 23:14 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.37%EV -6.45%E -3.67%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.72%EV -0.840%E -0.158%K -0.195%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -8.55%E -2.63%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-02 23:15 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.37%EV -6.45%E -3.67%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.72%EV -0.840%E -0.158%K -0.195%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -8.55%E -2.63%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-02 23:15 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 52.67%EV -6.45%E -3.67%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.73%EV -7.39%E -1.49%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 3.24I 30.86%NM 28.61%EV -8.83%E -2.72%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-02 23:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.63%EV -6.99%E -3.99%K -9.32%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -6.45%E -1.29%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.60%EV -4.32%E -1.27%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-02 22:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.23%EV -6.99%E -3.99%K -9.32%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -6.45%E -1.29%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.49%EV -12.77%E -4.12%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-02 23:25 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.23%EV -6.99%E -3.99%K -9.32%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -6.45%E -1.29%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.49%EV -12.77%E -4.12%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-02 23:25 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.23%EV -6.99%E -3.99%K -9.32%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -6.45%E -1.29%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.49%EV -12.77%E -4.12%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-02 23:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.23%EV -6.99%E -3.99%K -9.32%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -6.45%E -1.29%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.49%EV -12.77%E -4.12%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-02 23:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.53%EV -6.99%E -3.99%K -9.32%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.73%EV -18.61%E -4.28%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.74%EV -8.55%E -2.63%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-02 23:01 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.53%EV -6.99%E -3.99%K -9.32%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.73%EV -18.61%E -4.28%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.74%EV -8.55%E -2.63%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-02 23:01 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.53%EV -6.99%E -3.99%K -9.32%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.73%EV -18.61%E -4.28%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.74%EV -8.55%E -2.63%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-02 23:01 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.81%EV -7.52%E -4.32%K -10.16%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.35%EV -11.13%E -2.34%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.85%EV -7.14%E -2.16%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-02 22:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.46%EV -7.52%E -4.32%K -10.16%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.02%EV -10.19%E -2.12%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.52%EV -9.95%E -3.11%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-02 22:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.51%EV -8.58%E -4.99%K -11.92%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.59%EV -7.39%E -1.49%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -7.14%E -2.16%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-02 22:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.51%EV -8.58%E -4.99%K -11.92%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.59%EV -7.39%E -1.49%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -7.14%E -2.16%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-02 22:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.38%EV -8.58%E -4.99%K -11.92%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -6.45%E -1.29%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.25%EV -8.55%E -2.63%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-02 23:20 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.18%EV -8.58%E -4.99%K -11.92%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.67%EV -8.32%E -1.70%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.15%EV -8.55%E -2.63%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-02 23:01 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.85%EV -9.11%E -5.33%K -12.83%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.37%EV -0.840%E -0.158%K -0.195%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.78%EV -9.95%E -3.11%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-02 23:19 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.79%EV -9.11%E -5.33%K -12.83%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.16%EV -10.19%E -2.12%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.05%EV -4.32%E -1.27%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-02 22:55 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.04%EV -9.64%E -5.67%K -13.78%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.78%EV -10.19%E -2.12%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.18%EV -9.95%E -3.11%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-02 23:15 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.84%EV -9.64%E -5.67%K -13.78%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.53%EV -13.94%E -3.03%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.64%EV -8.55%E -2.63%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-02 22:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.14%EV -9.64%E -5.67%K -13.78%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.27%EV -13.94%E -3.03%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.59%EV -12.77%E -4.12%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-05-02 22:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.14%EV -9.64%E -5.67%K -13.78%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.27%EV -13.94%E -3.03%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.59%EV -12.77%E -4.12%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-05-02 22:45 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.14%EV -9.64%E -5.67%K -13.78%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.27%EV -13.94%E -3.03%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.59%EV -12.77%E -4.12%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-05-02 22:45 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.14%EV -9.64%E -5.67%K -13.78%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.27%EV -13.94%E -3.03%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.59%EV -12.77%E -4.12%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-05-02 22:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.88%EV -11.24%E -6.73%K -16.77%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.00%EV -6.45%E -1.29%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.12%EV -9.95%E -3.11%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-02 23:20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 51.87%EV -11.24%E -6.73%K -16.77%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.25%EV -15.81%E -3.51%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.88%EV -15.58%E -5.19%K -7.79%G +0.000% | 15.4% | 2026-05-02 22:51 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.66%EV -13.90%E -8.58%K -22.41%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.01%EV -0.840%E -0.158%K -0.195%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.32%EV -7.14%E -2.16%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-02 23:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.83I 54.64%NM 54.17% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.09% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.74% | 0.9% | 2026-05-02 23:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.83I 54.64%NM 54.17% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.09% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.74% | 0.9% | 2026-05-02 23:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.83I 54.64%NM 54.01% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.34% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.65% | 1.2% | 2026-05-02 23:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.83I 54.64%NM 54.01% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.34% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.65% | 1.2% | 2026-05-02 23:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.82I 54.95%NM 53.92% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.22% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.86% | 1.9% | 2026-05-02 23:25 |