Language:English
Fortaleza v Botafogo
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Fortaleza (Local)
Prediction 48.26%2.07fair odd
EV -3.47%
Edge -1.74%
Kelly -3.47%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.22%48.36%48.21%51.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.751.921.922.0057.14%52.03%52.08%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Botafogo (Visit)
Prediction 22.33%4.48fair odd
EV +0.944%
Edge +0.209%
Kelly +0.268%
Growth +0.003%
assuming max odds 4.52
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.09%22.28%22.29%24.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.654.054.004.5227.40%24.67%25.00%22.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 29.40%3.40fair odd
EV -2.97%
Edge -0.899%
Kelly -1.29%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.25%29.37%29.50%30.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.113.103.3033.90%32.19%32.26%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fortaleza (Local): 48.26%; Botafogo (Visit): 22.33%; Draw: 29.40%. For Botafogo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.48. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.52, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.944%.
Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 49.05%EV -5.40%E -2.76%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 4.52I 22.12%NM 21.27%EV +0.944%E +0.209%K +0.268%G +0.003% | 3.24I 30.86%NM 29.67%EV -4.73%E -1.46%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-07-29 00:34 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.66%EV -15.54%E -8.88%K -20.72%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.09%EV +0.497%E +0.110%K +0.142%G +0.001% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -5.91%E -1.85%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-07-29 00:34 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 49.28%EV -5.89%E -3.02%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.60%EV -0.620%E -0.139%K -0.180%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.12%EV -2.97%E -0.899%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-07-28 23:49 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 49.28%EV -5.89%E -3.02%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.60%EV -0.620%E -0.139%K -0.180%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.12%EV -2.97%E -0.899%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-07-28 23:49 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 49.28%EV -5.89%E -3.02%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.60%EV -0.620%E -0.139%K -0.180%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.12%EV -2.97%E -0.899%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-07-28 23:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.24%EV -7.82%E -4.09%K -8.59%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.37%EV -1.74%E -0.395%K -0.511%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -5.91%E -1.85%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-29 00:19 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.30%EV -9.75%E -5.21%K -11.20%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.95%EV -1.74%E -0.395%K -0.511%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -8.85%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-07-29 00:34 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.13%EV -8.30%E -4.37%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 4.32I 23.15%NM 21.61%EV -3.52%E -0.816%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 3.19I 31.35%NM 29.26%EV -6.20%E -1.94%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-29 00:28 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.48%EV -5.89%E -3.02%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.98%EV -3.97%E -0.923%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.54%EV -5.91%E -1.85%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-29 00:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 48.80%EV -8.78%E -4.65%K -9.87%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.45%EV -3.97%E -0.923%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -8.85%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-29 00:19 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.74%EV -7.82%E -4.09%K -8.59%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -6.20%E -1.48%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -5.91%E -1.85%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-29 00:29 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.03%EV -6.85%E -3.55%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.07%EV -6.20%E -1.48%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.90%EV -8.85%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-29 00:24 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.03%EV -6.85%E -3.55%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.07%EV -6.20%E -1.48%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.90%EV -8.85%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-29 00:29 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.88%EV -11.68%E -6.38%K -14.07%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.30%EV -6.20%E -1.48%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.82%EV -11.79%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-07-29 00:34 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.88%EV -11.68%E -6.38%K -14.07%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.30%EV -6.20%E -1.48%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.82%EV -11.79%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-07-29 00:34 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.03%EV -7.33%E -3.82%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.22%EV -7.32%E -1.76%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -8.85%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-29 00:24 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.03%EV -7.33%E -3.82%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.22%EV -7.32%E -1.76%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -8.85%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-29 00:24 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.03%EV -7.82%E -4.09%K -8.59%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.38%EV -8.44%E -2.06%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.59%EV -8.85%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-07-29 00:29 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.03%EV -7.82%E -4.09%K -8.59%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.38%EV -8.44%E -2.06%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.59%EV -8.85%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-07-29 00:24 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.16%EV -6.85%E -3.55%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.24%EV -10.67%E -2.67%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -4.44%E -1.37%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-29 00:29 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%EV -7.82%E -4.09%K -8.59%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -10.67%E -2.67%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -5.91%E -1.85%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-29 00:29 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -7.82%E -4.09%K -8.59%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -10.67%E -2.67%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -8.85%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-07-29 00:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.78%EV -5.89%E -3.02%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -10.67%E -2.67%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -11.79%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-07-29 00:34 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.78%EV -5.89%E -3.02%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -10.67%E -2.67%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -11.79%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-07-29 00:34 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.78%EV -5.89%E -3.02%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -10.67%E -2.67%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -11.79%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-07-29 00:34 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.78%EV -5.89%E -3.02%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -10.67%E -2.67%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -11.79%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-07-29 00:34 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 47.17%EV -7.33%E -3.82%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.64%EV -10.67%E -2.67%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.19%EV -11.79%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-07-29 00:19 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.29%EV -9.75%E -5.21%K -11.20%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -10.67%E -2.67%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -8.85%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-07-29 00:28 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.29%EV -9.75%E -5.21%K -11.20%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -10.67%E -2.67%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -8.85%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-07-29 00:28 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.83%EV -11.68%E -6.38%K -14.07%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -10.67%E -2.67%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.83%EV -8.85%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-07-29 00:24 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.70%EV -3.47%E -1.74%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.65%EV -11.79%E -2.98%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -7.38%E -2.34%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-29 00:34 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.70%EV -3.47%E -1.74%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.65%EV -11.79%E -2.98%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -7.38%E -2.34%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-29 00:34 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.70%EV -3.47%E -1.74%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.65%EV -11.79%E -2.98%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -7.38%E -2.34%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-29 00:34 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.70%EV -3.47%E -1.74%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.65%EV -11.79%E -2.98%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -7.38%E -2.34%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-29 00:34 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.70%EV -3.47%E -1.74%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.65%EV -11.79%E -2.98%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -7.38%E -2.34%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-29 00:34 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.78%EV -3.47%E -1.74%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -12.90%E -3.31%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -5.91%E -1.85%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-29 00:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.78%EV -3.47%E -1.74%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -12.90%E -3.31%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -5.91%E -1.85%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-29 00:29 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.97%EV -5.89%E -3.02%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -12.90%E -3.31%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -8.85%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-07-29 00:34 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.03%EV -7.82%E -4.09%K -8.59%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.03%EV -12.90%E -3.31%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.94%EV -11.79%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-07-29 00:19 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.03%EV -7.82%E -4.09%K -8.59%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.03%EV -12.90%E -3.31%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.94%EV -11.79%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-07-29 00:19 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.03%EV -7.82%E -4.09%K -8.59%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.03%EV -12.90%E -3.31%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.94%EV -11.79%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-07-29 00:24 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.03%EV -7.82%E -4.09%K -8.59%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.03%EV -12.90%E -3.31%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.94%EV -11.79%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-07-29 00:24 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 46.81%EV -6.37%E -3.28%K -6.78%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.90%EV -15.14%E -3.98%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.29%EV -8.85%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-07-29 00:05 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 47.18%EV -8.30%E -4.37%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.90%EV -16.25%E -4.33%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -8.85%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-07-29 00:29 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 46.42%EV -6.85%E -3.55%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -17.37%E -4.69%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.37%EV -10.32%E -3.38%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-07-29 00:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 46.55%EV -7.33%E -3.82%K -7.97%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.15%EV -17.37%E -4.69%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.30%EV -10.32%E -3.38%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-07-29 00:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.22%EV -7.82%E -4.09%K -8.59%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.86%EV -17.37%E -4.69%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.92%EV -13.26%E -4.49%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-07-29 00:34 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 46.69%EV -9.27%E -4.93%K -10.53%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.05%EV -18.49%E -5.06%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.26%EV -11.79%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-07-29 00:04 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 46.33%EV -8.78%E -4.65%K -9.87%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 23.99%EV -18.49%E -5.06%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.68%EV -13.26%E -4.49%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-07-29 00:34 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.88% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.78% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.34% | 0.2% | 2026-07-29 00:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.88% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.78% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.34% | 0.2% | 2026-07-29 00:24 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.87% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.36% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.77% | 0.3% | 2026-07-29 00:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.99I 50.25%NM 50.00% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.73% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.27% | 0.5% | 2026-07-29 00:30 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.99I 50.25%NM 49.57% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.99% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.44% | 1.4% | 2026-07-29 00:34 |
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