Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Fortaleza v Botafogo

Início: 2026-07-29 00:35 UTC

Final: Fortaleza 1–0 Botafogo

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

49 casas de apostas (18 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Fortaleza (Local)

Previsão 48.26%2.07odd justa
EV -3.47%
Vantagem -1.74%
Kelly -3.47%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
46.22%48.36%48.21%51.66%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.751.921.922.0057.14%52.03%52.08%50.00%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Botafogo (Visitante)

Previsão 22.33%4.48odd justa
EV +0.944%
Vantagem +0.209%
Kelly +0.268%
Crescimento +0.003%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.52

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
20.09%22.28%22.29%24.21%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.654.054.004.5227.40%24.67%25.00%22.12%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 29.40%3.40odd justa
EV -2.97%
Vantagem -0.899%
Kelly -1.29%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.30

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
28.25%29.37%29.50%30.41%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.953.113.103.3033.90%32.19%32.26%30.30%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Fortaleza (Local): 48.26%; Botafogo (Visitante): 22.33%; Empate: 29.40%. Para Botafogo (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 4.48. 2 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 4.52, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +0.944%.

Odds das casas de apostas (49 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
Pinnacle🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 49.05%EV -5.40%E -2.76%K -5.63%G +0.000%4.52I 22.12%NM 21.27%EV +0.944%E +0.209%K +0.268%G +0.003%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.67%EV -4.73%E -1.46%K -2.11%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-29 00:34
Tipico (DE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.66%EV -15.54%E -8.88%K -20.72%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.09%EV +0.497%E +0.110%K +0.142%G +0.001%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -5.91%E -1.85%K -2.68%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-29 00:34
LowVig.ag🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 49.28%EV -5.89%E -3.02%K -6.20%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.60%EV -0.620%E -0.139%K -0.180%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.12%EV -2.97%E -0.899%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-28 23:49
BetOnline.ag🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 49.28%EV -5.89%E -3.02%K -6.20%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.60%EV -0.620%E -0.139%K -0.180%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.12%EV -2.97%E -0.899%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-28 23:49
BetUS🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 49.28%EV -5.89%E -3.02%K -6.20%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.60%EV -0.620%E -0.139%K -0.180%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.12%EV -2.97%E -0.899%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-28 23:50
SportsBet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.24%EV -7.82%E -4.09%K -8.59%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.37%EV -1.74%E -0.395%K -0.511%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -5.91%E -1.85%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-29 00:19
FanDuel🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.30%EV -9.75%E -5.21%K -11.20%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.95%EV -1.74%E -0.395%K -0.511%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -8.85%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-29 00:34
1xBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.13%EV -8.30%E -4.37%K -9.22%G +0.000%4.32I 23.15%NM 21.61%EV -3.52%E -0.816%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 29.26%EV -6.20%E -1.94%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-29 00:28
DraftKings🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.48%EV -5.89%E -3.02%K -6.20%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.98%EV -3.97%E -0.923%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.54%EV -5.91%E -1.85%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-29 00:20
Bovada🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.80%EV -8.78%E -4.65%K -9.87%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.45%EV -3.97%E -0.923%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -8.85%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-29 00:19
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.74%EV -7.82%E -4.09%K -8.59%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -6.20%E -1.48%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -5.91%E -1.85%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-29 00:29
Unibet (UK)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.03%EV -6.85%E -3.55%K -7.37%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.07%EV -6.20%E -1.48%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.90%EV -8.85%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-29 00:24
Marathon Bet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.03%EV -6.85%E -3.55%K -7.37%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.07%EV -6.20%E -1.48%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.90%EV -8.85%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-29 00:29
Paddy Power🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.88%EV -11.68%E -6.38%K -14.07%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.30%EV -6.20%E -1.48%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.82%EV -11.79%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000%11.8%2026-07-29 00:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.88%EV -11.68%E -6.38%K -14.07%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.30%EV -6.20%E -1.48%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.82%EV -11.79%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000%11.8%2026-07-29 00:34
NordicBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.03%EV -7.33%E -3.82%K -7.97%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.22%EV -7.32%E -1.76%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -8.85%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-29 00:24
Betsson🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.03%EV -7.33%E -3.82%K -7.97%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.22%EV -7.32%E -1.76%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -8.85%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-29 00:24
LeoVegas🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.03%EV -7.82%E -4.09%K -8.59%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.38%EV -8.44%E -2.06%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.59%EV -8.85%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-29 00:29
Codere (IT)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.03%EV -7.82%E -4.09%K -8.59%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.38%EV -8.44%E -2.06%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.59%EV -8.85%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-29 00:24
Coolbet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.16%EV -6.85%E -3.55%K -7.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.24%EV -10.67%E -2.67%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -4.44%E -1.37%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-29 00:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%EV -7.82%E -4.09%K -8.59%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -10.67%E -2.67%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -5.91%E -1.85%K -2.68%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-29 00:29
BetMGM🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -7.82%E -4.09%K -8.59%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -10.67%E -2.67%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -8.85%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-29 00:30
888sport🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.78%EV -5.89%E -3.02%K -6.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -10.67%E -2.67%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -11.79%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-29 00:34
William Hill🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.78%EV -5.89%E -3.02%K -6.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -10.67%E -2.67%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -11.79%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-29 00:34
888sport (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.78%EV -5.89%E -3.02%K -6.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -10.67%E -2.67%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -11.79%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-29 00:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.78%EV -5.89%E -3.02%K -6.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -10.67%E -2.67%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -11.79%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-29 00:34
PlayUp🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.17%EV -7.33%E -3.82%K -7.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.64%EV -10.67%E -2.67%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.19%EV -11.79%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-29 00:19
Bet Victor🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.29%EV -9.75%E -5.21%K -11.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -10.67%E -2.67%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -8.85%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-29 00:28
betano_uk🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.29%EV -9.75%E -5.21%K -11.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -10.67%E -2.67%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -8.85%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-29 00:28
BoyleSports🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.83%EV -11.68%E -6.38%K -14.07%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -10.67%E -2.67%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.83%EV -8.85%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-29 00:24
Unibet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.70%EV -3.47%E -1.74%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.65%EV -11.79%E -2.98%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -7.38%E -2.34%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-29 00:34
Unibet (NL)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.70%EV -3.47%E -1.74%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.65%EV -11.79%E -2.98%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -7.38%E -2.34%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-29 00:34
Casumo🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.70%EV -3.47%E -1.74%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.65%EV -11.79%E -2.98%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -7.38%E -2.34%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-29 00:34
ATG (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.70%EV -3.47%E -1.74%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.65%EV -11.79%E -2.98%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -7.38%E -2.34%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-29 00:34
betPARX🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.70%EV -3.47%E -1.74%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.65%EV -11.79%E -2.98%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -7.38%E -2.34%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-29 00:34
Unibet (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.78%EV -3.47%E -1.74%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -12.90%E -3.31%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -5.91%E -1.85%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-29 00:30
Svenska Spel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.78%EV -3.47%E -1.74%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -12.90%E -3.31%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -5.91%E -1.85%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-29 00:29
theScore Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.97%EV -5.89%E -3.02%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -12.90%E -3.31%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -8.85%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-29 00:34
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.03%EV -7.82%E -4.09%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.03%EV -12.90%E -3.31%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.94%EV -11.79%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000%11.3%2026-07-29 00:19
Neds🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.03%EV -7.82%E -4.09%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.03%EV -12.90%E -3.31%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.94%EV -11.79%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000%11.3%2026-07-29 00:19
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.03%EV -7.82%E -4.09%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.03%EV -12.90%E -3.31%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.94%EV -11.79%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000%11.3%2026-07-29 00:24
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.03%EV -7.82%E -4.09%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.03%EV -12.90%E -3.31%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.94%EV -11.79%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000%11.3%2026-07-29 00:24
BetRivers🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 46.81%EV -6.37%E -3.28%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.90%EV -15.14%E -3.98%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.29%EV -8.85%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-29 00:05
betfred_uk🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.18%EV -8.30%E -4.37%K -9.22%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.90%EV -16.25%E -4.33%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -8.85%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-29 00:29
Grosvenor🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.42%EV -6.85%E -3.55%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -17.37%E -4.69%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.37%EV -10.32%E -3.38%K -5.03%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-29 00:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 46.55%EV -7.33%E -3.82%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.15%EV -17.37%E -4.69%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.30%EV -10.32%E -3.38%K -5.03%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-29 00:30
TABtouch🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.22%EV -7.82%E -4.09%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.86%EV -17.37%E -4.69%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.92%EV -13.26%E -4.49%K -6.80%G +0.000%13.3%2026-07-29 00:34
LiveScore Bet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 46.69%EV -9.27%E -4.93%K -10.53%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.05%EV -18.49%E -5.06%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.26%EV -11.79%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000%13.9%2026-07-29 00:04
Virgin Bet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 46.33%EV -8.78%E -4.65%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.99%EV -18.49%E -5.06%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.68%EV -13.26%E -4.49%K -6.80%G +0.000%14.2%2026-07-29 00:34
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 49.88%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.78%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.34%0.2%2026-07-29 00:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 49.88%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.78%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.34%0.2%2026-07-29 00:24
Matchbook2.00I 50.00%NM 49.87%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.36%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.77%0.3%2026-07-29 00:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.99I 50.25%NM 50.00%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.73%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.27%0.5%2026-07-29 00:30
Smarkets1.99I 50.25%NM 49.57%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.99%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.44%1.4%2026-07-29 00:34