StandardmodellInterkvartilmedelvärde (Kurerad lista)

Fortaleza v Avai

Matchstart: 2026-09-09 22:30 UTC

Slutresultat: Fortaleza 1–0 Avai

Slutodds — de beräknade sannolikheterna och väntevärdet från de sista odds som registrerades före matchstart, enligt den valda modellen. Matchen har börjat, så siffrorna är inte aktuella realtidsvärden. Bedöm tillförlitligheten hos varje modells sannolikhetsprognoser mot utfallen i samtliga avgjorda matcher →

Matchresultat

49 spelbolag (18 i analysen )

Beräknad sannolikhet för varje utfall enligt modellen: Interkvartilmedelvärde (Kurerad lista)

Fortaleza (Hemma)

Prognos 60.28%1.66rättvist odds
EV -3.56%
Fördel -2.22%
Kelly -5.93%
Tillväxt +0.000%

med antagandet om högsta odds 1.60

Fördelning av spelbolagens sannolikhetsprognoser
57.67%60.22%60.31%62.18%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.
Oddsfördelning
1.441.541.531.6069.44%64.81%65.36%62.50%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.

Avai (Borta)

Prognos 14.50%6.90rättvist odds
EV +3.55%
Fördel +0.498%
Kelly +0.579%
Tillväxt +0.021%

med antagandet om högsta odds 7.14

Fördelning av spelbolagens sannolikhetsprognoser
13.43%14.59%14.46%16.79%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.
Oddsfördelning
5.256.056.007.1419.05%16.52%16.67%14.01%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.

Oavgjort

Prognos 25.22%3.96rättvist odds
EV -3.66%
Fördel -0.957%
Kelly -1.30%
Tillväxt +0.000%

med antagandet om högsta odds 3.82

Fördelning av spelbolagens sannolikhetsprognoser
24.37%25.20%25.23%26.60%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.
Oddsfördelning
3.403.623.603.8229.41%27.66%27.78%26.18%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.

Vid de sista oddsen före start uppskattade Interkvartilmedelvärde (Kurerad lista) för Matchresultat: Fortaleza (Hemma): 60.28%; Avai (Borta): 14.50%; Oavgjort: 25.22%. För Avai (Borta) motsvarade uppskattningen ett rättvist decimalodds på 6.90. 1 spelbolag erbjöd slutodds över den nivån; bästa odds var 7.14, motsvarande ett positivt väntevärde på +3.55%.

Spelbolagsodds (49 spelbolag)

Vi är inte knutna till något spelbolag och får ingen ersättning för transaktioner som genomförs hos dem.

SpelbolagHemmaBorta ▼OavgjortMarginalUppdaterat
Pinnacle🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.47%EV -5.97%E -3.83%K -10.66%G +0.000%7.14I 14.01%NM 13.43%EV +3.55%E +0.498%K +0.579%G +0.021%3.82I 26.18%NM 25.10%EV -3.66%E -0.957%K -1.30%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-09 16:26
Tipico (DE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.18%EV -12.60%E -8.69%K -28.00%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.46%EV -2.83%E -0.422%K -0.496%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.37%EV -6.68%E -1.81%K -2.48%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-09 15:25
Marathon Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%EV -7.78%E -5.08%K -14.67%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.04%EV -4.28%E -0.648%K -0.764%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.39%EV -7.94%E -2.18%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-09 16:05
DraftKings🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.43%EV -5.37%E -3.42%K -9.42%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.60%EV -5.73%E -0.881%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.97%EV -4.16%E -1.09%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-09 13:40
Coolbet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.76%EV -5.97%E -3.83%K -10.66%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.34%EV -5.73%E -0.881%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.90%EV -9.21%E -2.56%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-09 14:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.80%EV -8.38%E -5.51%K -16.12%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.22%EV -5.73%E -0.881%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.98%EV -6.68%E -1.81%K -2.48%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-09 16:10
theScore Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.23%EV -7.78%E -5.08%K -14.67%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV -5.73%E -0.881%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%EV -9.21%E -2.56%K -3.54%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-09 13:58
Bovada🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.60%EV -8.38%E -5.51%K -16.12%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -5.73%E -0.881%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.23%EV -7.94%E -2.18%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-09 16:24
PlayUp🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 59.49%EV -8.38%E -5.51%K -16.12%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.91%EV -5.73%E -0.881%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.60%EV -14.25%E -4.19%K -5.94%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-09 16:05
betano_uk🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.26%EV -9.59%E -6.39%K -19.17%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.91%EV -5.73%E -0.881%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -11.73%E -3.35%K -4.69%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-09 14:29
Bet Victor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.26%EV -9.59%E -6.39%K -19.17%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.91%EV -5.73%E -0.881%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -11.73%E -3.35%K -4.69%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-09 14:29
1xBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.10%EV -6.57%E -4.24%K -11.95%G +0.000%6.48I 15.43%NM 14.38%EV -6.02%E -0.929%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.52%EV -7.94%E -2.18%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-09 16:10
BetOnline.ag🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.40%EV -6.57%E -4.24%K -11.95%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV -7.18%E -1.12%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -5.42%E -1.45%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-09 16:15
LowVig.ag🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.40%EV -6.57%E -4.24%K -11.95%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV -7.18%E -1.12%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -5.42%E -1.45%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-09 16:15
BetUS🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.40%EV -6.57%E -4.24%K -11.95%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV -7.18%E -1.12%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -5.42%E -1.45%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-09 16:15
Codere (IT)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 60.62%EV -8.98%E -5.95%K -17.61%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.30%EV -7.18%E -1.12%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.08%EV -7.94%E -2.18%K -3.00%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-09 16:10
NordicBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.57%EV -9.59%E -6.39%K -19.17%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.20%EV -7.18%E -1.12%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -9.21%E -2.56%K -3.54%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-09 16:10
Betsson🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.57%EV -9.59%E -6.39%K -19.17%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.20%EV -7.18%E -1.12%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -9.21%E -2.56%K -3.54%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-09 16:10
LeoVegas🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.66%EV -8.38%E -5.51%K -16.12%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.75%EV -9.35%E -1.50%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.59%EV -5.42%E -1.45%K -1.97%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-09 17:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.73%EV -7.17%E -4.66%K -13.29%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.72%EV -9.35%E -1.50%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -9.21%E -2.56%K -3.54%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-09 14:00
SportsBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -3.56%E -2.22%K -5.93%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -12.98%E -2.16%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -9.21%E -2.56%K -3.54%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-09 05:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -3.56%E -2.22%K -5.93%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -12.98%E -2.16%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -9.21%E -2.56%K -3.54%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-09 05:54
FanDuel🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.59%EV -4.16%E -2.62%K -7.05%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.53%EV -12.98%E -2.16%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -9.21%E -2.56%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-09 05:52
Betway🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.02%EV -6.57%E -4.24%K -11.95%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.50%EV -12.98%E -2.16%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -4.16%E -1.09%K -1.49%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-09 16:05
BetMGM🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.52%EV -7.78%E -5.08%K -14.67%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -12.98%E -2.16%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.30%EV -9.21%E -2.56%K -3.54%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-09 13:10
888sport🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.52%EV -7.78%E -5.08%K -14.67%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -12.98%E -2.16%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.30%EV -9.21%E -2.56%K -3.54%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-09 14:25
William Hill🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.52%EV -7.78%E -5.08%K -14.67%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -12.98%E -2.16%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.30%EV -9.21%E -2.56%K -3.54%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-09 16:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.52%EV -7.78%E -5.08%K -14.67%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -12.98%E -2.16%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.30%EV -9.21%E -2.56%K -3.54%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-09 14:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.52%EV -7.78%E -5.08%K -14.67%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -12.98%E -2.16%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.30%EV -9.21%E -2.56%K -3.54%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-09 14:25
betfred_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.10%EV -7.78%E -5.08%K -14.67%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.07%EV -12.98%E -2.16%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -11.73%E -3.35%K -4.69%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-09 14:00
BoyleSports🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 60.98%EV -13.20%E -9.17%K -30.01%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.63%EV -12.98%E -2.16%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.39%EV -9.21%E -2.56%K -3.54%G +0.000%13.9%2026-09-09 16:15
Unibet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.46%EV -3.56%E -2.22%K -5.93%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -16.61%E -2.89%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -6.68%E -1.81%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-09 16:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.46%EV -3.56%E -2.22%K -5.93%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -16.61%E -2.89%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -6.68%E -1.81%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-09 16:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.46%EV -3.56%E -2.22%K -5.93%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -16.61%E -2.89%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -6.68%E -1.81%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-09 16:10
Casumo🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.46%EV -3.56%E -2.22%K -5.93%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -16.61%E -2.89%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -6.68%E -1.81%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-09 16:10
ATG (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.46%EV -3.56%E -2.22%K -5.93%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -16.61%E -2.89%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -6.68%E -1.81%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-09 16:10
Svenska Spel🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.46%EV -3.56%E -2.22%K -5.93%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -16.61%E -2.89%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -6.68%E -1.81%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-09 16:10
betPARX🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.46%EV -3.56%E -2.22%K -5.93%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -16.61%E -2.89%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -6.68%E -1.81%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-09 16:15
Coral🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.71%EV -7.78%E -5.08%K -14.67%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.62%EV -16.61%E -2.89%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.67%EV -11.73%E -3.35%K -4.69%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-09 13:10
Neds🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.71%EV -7.78%E -5.08%K -14.67%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.62%EV -16.61%E -2.89%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.67%EV -11.73%E -3.35%K -4.69%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-09 13:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.71%EV -7.78%E -5.08%K -14.67%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.62%EV -16.61%E -2.89%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.67%EV -11.73%E -3.35%K -4.69%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-09 13:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.71%EV -7.78%E -5.08%K -14.67%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.62%EV -16.61%E -2.89%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.67%EV -11.73%E -3.35%K -4.69%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-09 13:11
BetRivers🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.24%EV -5.97%E -3.83%K -10.66%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.52%EV -20.23%E -3.68%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -9.21%E -2.56%K -3.54%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-09 16:10
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.67%EV -5.37%E -3.42%K -9.42%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.46%EV -20.23%E -3.68%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -11.73%E -3.35%K -4.69%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-09 05:54
Grosvenor🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.02%EV -6.57%E -4.24%K -11.95%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.65%EV -21.68%E -4.02%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.33%EV -10.47%E -2.95%K -4.10%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-09 16:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 57.78%EV -7.17%E -4.66%K -13.29%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.79%EV -23.13%E -4.36%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.43%EV -11.73%E -3.35%K -4.69%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-09 16:10
TABtouch🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.94%EV -7.78%E -5.08%K -14.67%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.73%EV -23.13%E -4.36%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.33%EV -11.73%E -3.35%K -4.69%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-09 16:15
Virgin Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 57.80%EV -8.38%E -5.51%K -16.12%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.73%EV -23.86%E -4.54%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.47%EV -12.99%E -3.76%K -5.30%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-09 16:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 57.80%EV -8.38%E -5.51%K -16.12%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.73%EV -23.86%E -4.54%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.47%EV -12.99%E -3.76%K -5.30%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-09 16:15
Marginal = Marginal · I = Implicit sannolikhet · NM = Marginalrensad sannolikhet · EV = Väntevärde · E = Fördel · K = Kelly-kriteriet · G = Spelkapitalets tillväxt

Uppdaterat anger när respektive spelbolag senast ändrade sitt odds. En äldre tidpunkt betyder därför att oddset inte har rört sig, inte att det är inaktuellt. Spelbolag som inte har observerats under de senaste cirka 15 minuterna utesluts normalt; endast om dataflödet för en hel marknad tystnar visas i stället de senast registrerade oddsen.

Spelbörser (5)

SpelbolagHemmaBortaOavgjortMarginal ▲Uppdaterat
Matchbook◎1.60I 62.50%NM 62.10%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.74%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.16%0.6%2026-09-09 17:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.59I 62.89%NM 62.25%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.69%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.06%1.0%2026-09-09 16:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.59I 62.89%NM 62.25%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.69%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.06%1.0%2026-09-09 16:26
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.59I 62.89%NM 62.05%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.65%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.30%1.4%2026-09-09 17:35
Smarkets◎1.58I 63.29%NM 62.40%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.64%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.96%1.4%2026-09-09 16:35