Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Fortaleza v Avai

Início: 2026-09-09 22:30 UTC

Final: Fortaleza 1–0 Avai

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

49 casas de apostas (18 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Fortaleza (Local)

Previsão 60.28%1.66odd justa
EV -3.56%
Vantagem -2.22%
Kelly -5.93%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.60

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
57.67%60.22%60.31%62.18%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.441.541.531.6069.44%64.81%65.36%62.50%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Avai (Visitante)

Previsão 14.50%6.90odd justa
EV +3.55%
Vantagem +0.498%
Kelly +0.579%
Crescimento +0.021%

pressupondo odds máximas de 7.14

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
13.43%14.59%14.46%16.79%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
5.256.056.007.1419.05%16.52%16.67%14.01%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 25.22%3.96odd justa
EV -3.66%
Vantagem -0.957%
Kelly -1.30%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.82

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
24.37%25.20%25.23%26.60%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.403.623.603.8229.41%27.66%27.78%26.18%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Fortaleza (Local): 60.28%; Avai (Visitante): 14.50%; Empate: 25.22%. Para Avai (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 6.90. 1 casa de apostas oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 7.14, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +3.55%.

Odds das casas de apostas (49 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
Pinnacle🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.47%EV -5.97%E -3.83%K -10.66%G +0.000%7.14I 14.01%NM 13.43%EV +3.55%E +0.498%K +0.579%G +0.021%3.82I 26.18%NM 25.10%EV -3.66%E -0.957%K -1.30%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-09 16:26
Tipico (DE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.18%EV -12.60%E -8.69%K -28.00%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.46%EV -2.83%E -0.422%K -0.496%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.37%EV -6.68%E -1.81%K -2.48%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-09 15:25
Marathon Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%EV -7.78%E -5.08%K -14.67%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.04%EV -4.28%E -0.648%K -0.764%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.39%EV -7.94%E -2.18%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-09 16:05
DraftKings🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.43%EV -5.37%E -3.42%K -9.42%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.60%EV -5.73%E -0.881%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.97%EV -4.16%E -1.09%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-09 13:40
Coolbet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.76%EV -5.97%E -3.83%K -10.66%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.34%EV -5.73%E -0.881%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.90%EV -9.21%E -2.56%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-09 14:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.80%EV -8.38%E -5.51%K -16.12%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.22%EV -5.73%E -0.881%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.98%EV -6.68%E -1.81%K -2.48%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-09 16:10
theScore Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.23%EV -7.78%E -5.08%K -14.67%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV -5.73%E -0.881%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%EV -9.21%E -2.56%K -3.54%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-09 13:58
Bovada🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.60%EV -8.38%E -5.51%K -16.12%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -5.73%E -0.881%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.23%EV -7.94%E -2.18%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-09 16:24
PlayUp🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 59.49%EV -8.38%E -5.51%K -16.12%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.91%EV -5.73%E -0.881%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.60%EV -14.25%E -4.19%K -5.94%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-09 16:05
betano_uk🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.26%EV -9.59%E -6.39%K -19.17%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.91%EV -5.73%E -0.881%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -11.73%E -3.35%K -4.69%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-09 14:29
Bet Victor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.26%EV -9.59%E -6.39%K -19.17%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.91%EV -5.73%E -0.881%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -11.73%E -3.35%K -4.69%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-09 14:29
1xBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.10%EV -6.57%E -4.24%K -11.95%G +0.000%6.48I 15.43%NM 14.38%EV -6.02%E -0.929%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.52%EV -7.94%E -2.18%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-09 16:10
BetOnline.ag🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.40%EV -6.57%E -4.24%K -11.95%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV -7.18%E -1.12%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -5.42%E -1.45%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-09 16:15
LowVig.ag🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.40%EV -6.57%E -4.24%K -11.95%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV -7.18%E -1.12%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -5.42%E -1.45%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-09 16:15
BetUS🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.40%EV -6.57%E -4.24%K -11.95%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV -7.18%E -1.12%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -5.42%E -1.45%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-09 16:15
Codere (IT)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 60.62%EV -8.98%E -5.95%K -17.61%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.30%EV -7.18%E -1.12%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.08%EV -7.94%E -2.18%K -3.00%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-09 16:10
NordicBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.57%EV -9.59%E -6.39%K -19.17%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.20%EV -7.18%E -1.12%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -9.21%E -2.56%K -3.54%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-09 16:10
Betsson🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.57%EV -9.59%E -6.39%K -19.17%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.20%EV -7.18%E -1.12%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -9.21%E -2.56%K -3.54%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-09 16:10
LeoVegas🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.66%EV -8.38%E -5.51%K -16.12%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.75%EV -9.35%E -1.50%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.59%EV -5.42%E -1.45%K -1.97%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-09 17:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.73%EV -7.17%E -4.66%K -13.29%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.72%EV -9.35%E -1.50%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -9.21%E -2.56%K -3.54%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-09 14:00
SportsBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -3.56%E -2.22%K -5.93%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -12.98%E -2.16%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -9.21%E -2.56%K -3.54%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-09 05:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -3.56%E -2.22%K -5.93%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -12.98%E -2.16%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -9.21%E -2.56%K -3.54%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-09 05:54
FanDuel🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.59%EV -4.16%E -2.62%K -7.05%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.53%EV -12.98%E -2.16%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -9.21%E -2.56%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-09 05:52
Betway🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.02%EV -6.57%E -4.24%K -11.95%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.50%EV -12.98%E -2.16%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -4.16%E -1.09%K -1.49%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-09 16:05
BetMGM🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.52%EV -7.78%E -5.08%K -14.67%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -12.98%E -2.16%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.30%EV -9.21%E -2.56%K -3.54%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-09 13:10
888sport🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.52%EV -7.78%E -5.08%K -14.67%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -12.98%E -2.16%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.30%EV -9.21%E -2.56%K -3.54%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-09 14:25
William Hill🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.52%EV -7.78%E -5.08%K -14.67%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -12.98%E -2.16%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.30%EV -9.21%E -2.56%K -3.54%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-09 16:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.52%EV -7.78%E -5.08%K -14.67%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -12.98%E -2.16%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.30%EV -9.21%E -2.56%K -3.54%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-09 14:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.52%EV -7.78%E -5.08%K -14.67%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -12.98%E -2.16%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.30%EV -9.21%E -2.56%K -3.54%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-09 14:25
betfred_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.10%EV -7.78%E -5.08%K -14.67%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.07%EV -12.98%E -2.16%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -11.73%E -3.35%K -4.69%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-09 14:00
BoyleSports🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 60.98%EV -13.20%E -9.17%K -30.01%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.63%EV -12.98%E -2.16%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.39%EV -9.21%E -2.56%K -3.54%G +0.000%13.9%2026-09-09 16:15
Unibet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.46%EV -3.56%E -2.22%K -5.93%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -16.61%E -2.89%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -6.68%E -1.81%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-09 16:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.46%EV -3.56%E -2.22%K -5.93%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -16.61%E -2.89%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -6.68%E -1.81%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-09 16:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.46%EV -3.56%E -2.22%K -5.93%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -16.61%E -2.89%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -6.68%E -1.81%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-09 16:10
Casumo🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.46%EV -3.56%E -2.22%K -5.93%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -16.61%E -2.89%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -6.68%E -1.81%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-09 16:10
ATG (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.46%EV -3.56%E -2.22%K -5.93%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -16.61%E -2.89%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -6.68%E -1.81%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-09 16:10
Svenska Spel🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.46%EV -3.56%E -2.22%K -5.93%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -16.61%E -2.89%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -6.68%E -1.81%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-09 16:10
betPARX🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.46%EV -3.56%E -2.22%K -5.93%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -16.61%E -2.89%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -6.68%E -1.81%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-09 16:15
Coral🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.71%EV -7.78%E -5.08%K -14.67%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.62%EV -16.61%E -2.89%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.67%EV -11.73%E -3.35%K -4.69%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-09 13:10
Neds🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.71%EV -7.78%E -5.08%K -14.67%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.62%EV -16.61%E -2.89%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.67%EV -11.73%E -3.35%K -4.69%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-09 13:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.71%EV -7.78%E -5.08%K -14.67%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.62%EV -16.61%E -2.89%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.67%EV -11.73%E -3.35%K -4.69%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-09 13:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.71%EV -7.78%E -5.08%K -14.67%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.62%EV -16.61%E -2.89%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.67%EV -11.73%E -3.35%K -4.69%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-09 13:11
BetRivers🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.24%EV -5.97%E -3.83%K -10.66%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.52%EV -20.23%E -3.68%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -9.21%E -2.56%K -3.54%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-09 16:10
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.67%EV -5.37%E -3.42%K -9.42%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.46%EV -20.23%E -3.68%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -11.73%E -3.35%K -4.69%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-09 05:54
Grosvenor🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.02%EV -6.57%E -4.24%K -11.95%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.65%EV -21.68%E -4.02%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.33%EV -10.47%E -2.95%K -4.10%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-09 16:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 57.78%EV -7.17%E -4.66%K -13.29%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.79%EV -23.13%E -4.36%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.43%EV -11.73%E -3.35%K -4.69%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-09 16:10
TABtouch🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.94%EV -7.78%E -5.08%K -14.67%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.73%EV -23.13%E -4.36%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.33%EV -11.73%E -3.35%K -4.69%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-09 16:15
Virgin Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 57.80%EV -8.38%E -5.51%K -16.12%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.73%EV -23.86%E -4.54%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.47%EV -12.99%E -3.76%K -5.30%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-09 16:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 57.80%EV -8.38%E -5.51%K -16.12%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.73%EV -23.86%E -4.54%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.47%EV -12.99%E -3.76%K -5.30%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-09 16:15
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook◎1.60I 62.50%NM 62.10%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.74%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.16%0.6%2026-09-09 17:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.59I 62.89%NM 62.25%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.69%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.06%1.0%2026-09-09 16:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.59I 62.89%NM 62.25%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.69%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.06%1.0%2026-09-09 16:26
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.59I 62.89%NM 62.05%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.65%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.30%1.4%2026-09-09 17:35
Smarkets◎1.58I 63.29%NM 62.40%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.64%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.96%1.4%2026-09-09 16:35