Idioma:Español
Fortaleza v Avai
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Fortaleza (Local)
Predicción 60.28%1.66momio equitativo
EV -3.56%
Ventaja -2.22%
Kelly -5.93%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.60
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
57.67%60.22%60.31%62.18%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.441.541.531.6069.44%64.81%65.36%62.50%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Avai (Visitante)
Predicción 14.50%6.90momio equitativo
EV +3.55%
Ventaja +0.498%
Kelly +0.579%
Crecimiento +0.021%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 7.14
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
13.43%14.59%14.46%16.79%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
5.256.056.007.1419.05%16.52%16.67%14.01%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 25.22%3.96momio equitativo
EV -3.66%
Ventaja -0.957%
Kelly -1.30%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.82
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.37%25.20%25.23%26.60%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.403.623.603.8229.41%27.66%27.78%26.18%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Fortaleza (Local): 60.28%; Avai (Visitante): 14.50%; Empate: 25.22%. Para Avai (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 6.90. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 7.14, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +3.55%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (49 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.47%EV -5.97%E -3.83%K -10.66%G +0.000% | 7.14I 14.01%NM 13.43%EV +3.55%E +0.498%K +0.579%G +0.021% | 3.82I 26.18%NM 25.10%EV -3.66%E -0.957%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-09 16:26 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 62.18%EV -12.60%E -8.69%K -28.00%G +0.000% | 6.70I 14.93%NM 13.46%EV -2.83%E -0.422%K -0.496%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.37%EV -6.68%E -1.81%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-09-09 15:25 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%EV -7.78%E -5.08%K -14.67%G +0.000% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.04%EV -4.28%E -0.648%K -0.764%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.39%EV -7.94%E -2.18%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-09 16:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.43%EV -5.37%E -3.42%K -9.42%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.60%EV -5.73%E -0.881%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.97%EV -4.16%E -1.09%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-09 13:40 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.76%EV -5.97%E -3.83%K -10.66%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.34%EV -5.73%E -0.881%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.90%EV -9.21%E -2.56%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-09 14:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.80%EV -8.38%E -5.51%K -16.12%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.22%EV -5.73%E -0.881%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.98%EV -6.68%E -1.81%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-09 16:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.23%EV -7.78%E -5.08%K -14.67%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV -5.73%E -0.881%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%EV -9.21%E -2.56%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-09 13:58 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.60%EV -8.38%E -5.51%K -16.12%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -5.73%E -0.881%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.23%EV -7.94%E -2.18%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-09 16:24 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 59.49%EV -8.38%E -5.51%K -16.12%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.91%EV -5.73%E -0.881%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.60%EV -14.25%E -4.19%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-09 16:05 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.26%EV -9.59%E -6.39%K -19.17%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.91%EV -5.73%E -0.881%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -11.73%E -3.35%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-09 14:29 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.26%EV -9.59%E -6.39%K -19.17%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.91%EV -5.73%E -0.881%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -11.73%E -3.35%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-09 14:29 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.10%EV -6.57%E -4.24%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 6.48I 15.43%NM 14.38%EV -6.02%E -0.929%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.52%EV -7.94%E -2.18%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-09 16:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.40%EV -6.57%E -4.24%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV -7.18%E -1.12%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -5.42%E -1.45%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-09 16:15 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.40%EV -6.57%E -4.24%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV -7.18%E -1.12%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -5.42%E -1.45%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-09 16:15 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.40%EV -6.57%E -4.24%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV -7.18%E -1.12%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -5.42%E -1.45%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-09 16:15 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 60.62%EV -8.98%E -5.95%K -17.61%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.30%EV -7.18%E -1.12%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.08%EV -7.94%E -2.18%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-09 16:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.57%EV -9.59%E -6.39%K -19.17%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.20%EV -7.18%E -1.12%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -9.21%E -2.56%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-09 16:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.57%EV -9.59%E -6.39%K -19.17%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.20%EV -7.18%E -1.12%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -9.21%E -2.56%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-09 16:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.66%EV -8.38%E -5.51%K -16.12%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.75%EV -9.35%E -1.50%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.59%EV -5.42%E -1.45%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-09 17:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 59.73%EV -7.17%E -4.66%K -13.29%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.72%EV -9.35%E -1.50%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -9.21%E -2.56%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-09 14:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -3.56%E -2.22%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -12.98%E -2.16%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -9.21%E -2.56%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-09 05:54 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -3.56%E -2.22%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -12.98%E -2.16%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -9.21%E -2.56%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-09 05:54 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 58.59%EV -4.16%E -2.62%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.53%EV -12.98%E -2.16%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -9.21%E -2.56%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-09 05:52 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.02%EV -6.57%E -4.24%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.50%EV -12.98%E -2.16%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -4.16%E -1.09%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-09 16:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.52%EV -7.78%E -5.08%K -14.67%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -12.98%E -2.16%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.30%EV -9.21%E -2.56%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-09 13:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.52%EV -7.78%E -5.08%K -14.67%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -12.98%E -2.16%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.30%EV -9.21%E -2.56%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-09 14:25 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.52%EV -7.78%E -5.08%K -14.67%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -12.98%E -2.16%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.30%EV -9.21%E -2.56%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-09 16:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.52%EV -7.78%E -5.08%K -14.67%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -12.98%E -2.16%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.30%EV -9.21%E -2.56%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-09 14:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.52%EV -7.78%E -5.08%K -14.67%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -12.98%E -2.16%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.30%EV -9.21%E -2.56%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-09 14:25 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.10%EV -7.78%E -5.08%K -14.67%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.07%EV -12.98%E -2.16%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -11.73%E -3.35%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-09 14:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 60.98%EV -13.20%E -9.17%K -30.01%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.63%EV -12.98%E -2.16%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.39%EV -9.21%E -2.56%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-09-09 16:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.46%EV -3.56%E -2.22%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -16.61%E -2.89%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -6.68%E -1.81%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-09 16:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.46%EV -3.56%E -2.22%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -16.61%E -2.89%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -6.68%E -1.81%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-09 16:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.46%EV -3.56%E -2.22%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -16.61%E -2.89%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -6.68%E -1.81%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-09 16:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.46%EV -3.56%E -2.22%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -16.61%E -2.89%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -6.68%E -1.81%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-09 16:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.46%EV -3.56%E -2.22%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -16.61%E -2.89%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -6.68%E -1.81%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-09 16:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.46%EV -3.56%E -2.22%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -16.61%E -2.89%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -6.68%E -1.81%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-09 16:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.46%EV -3.56%E -2.22%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -16.61%E -2.89%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -6.68%E -1.81%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-09 16:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.71%EV -7.78%E -5.08%K -14.67%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.62%EV -16.61%E -2.89%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.67%EV -11.73%E -3.35%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-09-09 13:10 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.71%EV -7.78%E -5.08%K -14.67%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.62%EV -16.61%E -2.89%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.67%EV -11.73%E -3.35%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-09-09 13:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.71%EV -7.78%E -5.08%K -14.67%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.62%EV -16.61%E -2.89%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.67%EV -11.73%E -3.35%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-09-09 13:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.71%EV -7.78%E -5.08%K -14.67%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.62%EV -16.61%E -2.89%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.67%EV -11.73%E -3.35%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-09-09 13:11 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.24%EV -5.97%E -3.83%K -10.66%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.52%EV -20.23%E -3.68%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -9.21%E -2.56%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-09 16:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.67%EV -5.37%E -3.42%K -9.42%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.46%EV -20.23%E -3.68%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -11.73%E -3.35%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-09-09 05:54 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.02%EV -6.57%E -4.24%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.65%EV -21.68%E -4.02%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.33%EV -10.47%E -2.95%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-09-09 16:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 57.78%EV -7.17%E -4.66%K -13.29%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 16.79%EV -23.13%E -4.36%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.43%EV -11.73%E -3.35%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-09-09 16:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 57.94%EV -7.78%E -5.08%K -14.67%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 16.73%EV -23.13%E -4.36%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.33%EV -11.73%E -3.35%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-09-09 16:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 57.80%EV -8.38%E -5.51%K -16.12%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.73%EV -23.86%E -4.54%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.47%EV -12.99%E -3.76%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-09-09 16:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 57.80%EV -8.38%E -5.51%K -16.12%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.73%EV -23.86%E -4.54%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.47%EV -12.99%E -3.76%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-09-09 16:15 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.60I 62.50%NM 62.10% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.74% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.16% | 0.6% | 2026-09-09 17:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.25% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.69% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.06% | 1.0% | 2026-09-09 16:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.25% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.69% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.06% | 1.0% | 2026-09-09 16:26 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.05% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.65% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.30% | 1.4% | 2026-09-09 17:35 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.40% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.64% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.96% | 1.4% | 2026-09-09 16:35 |