Language:English
Ceará v Ponte Preta
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Ceará (Local)
Prediction 64.18%1.56fair odd
EV -4.37%
Edge -2.93%
Kelly -8.92%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.49
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.24%64.13%64.21%65.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.431.441.4973.53%69.94%69.44%67.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Ponte Preta (Visit)
Prediction 12.98%7.70fair odd
EV +7.24%
Edge +0.876%
Kelly +0.997%
Growth +0.072%
assuming max odds 8.26
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.59%13.01%12.94%14.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.407.077.008.2615.63%14.15%14.29%12.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 22.84%4.38fair odd
EV -4.08%
Edge -0.972%
Kelly -1.28%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.03%22.86%22.85%24.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.024.004.2026.67%24.86%25.00%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ceará (Local): 64.18%; Ponte Preta (Visit): 12.98%; Draw: 22.84%. For Ponte Preta (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.70. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.26, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.24%.
Sportsbook Odds (42 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.56%EV -6.30%E -4.31%K -13.69%G +0.000% | 8.26I 12.11%NM 11.59%EV +7.24%E +0.876%K +0.997%G +0.072% | 4.19I 23.87%NM 22.85%EV -4.31%E -1.03%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-07 23:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.00%EV -6.94%E -4.79%K -15.42%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.57%EV -2.63%E -0.351%K -0.404%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.44%EV -4.08%E -0.972%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-07 23:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.00%EV -6.94%E -4.79%K -15.42%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.57%EV -2.63%E -0.351%K -0.404%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.44%EV -4.08%E -0.972%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-07 23:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.64%EV -6.94%E -4.79%K -15.42%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV -2.63%E -0.351%K -0.404%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -6.37%E -1.55%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-07 22:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.64%EV -6.94%E -4.79%K -15.42%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV -2.63%E -0.351%K -0.404%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -6.37%E -1.55%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-07 22:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.31%EV -8.22%E -5.75%K -19.12%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.45%EV -2.63%E -0.351%K -0.404%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.24%EV -4.08%E -0.972%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-07 23:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.31%EV -8.22%E -5.75%K -19.12%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.45%EV -2.63%E -0.351%K -0.404%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.24%EV -4.08%E -0.972%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-07 23:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.31%EV -8.22%E -5.75%K -19.12%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.45%EV -2.63%E -0.351%K -0.404%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.24%EV -4.08%E -0.972%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-07 23:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.31%EV -8.22%E -5.75%K -19.12%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.45%EV -2.63%E -0.351%K -0.404%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.24%EV -4.08%E -0.972%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-07 23:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.31%EV -8.22%E -5.75%K -19.12%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.45%EV -2.63%E -0.351%K -0.404%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.24%EV -4.08%E -0.972%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-07 23:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.31%EV -8.22%E -5.75%K -19.12%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.45%EV -2.63%E -0.351%K -0.404%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.24%EV -4.08%E -0.972%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-07 23:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.31%EV -8.22%E -5.75%K -19.12%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.45%EV -2.63%E -0.351%K -0.404%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.24%EV -4.08%E -0.972%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-07 23:10 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.24%EV -7.58%E -5.26%K -17.23%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV -2.63%E -0.351%K -0.404%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.42%EV -9.79%E -2.48%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-07 23:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.40%EV -8.22%E -5.75%K -19.12%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -2.63%E -0.351%K -0.404%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.32%EV -9.79%E -2.48%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-07 23:25 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 65.93%EV -12.07%E -8.81%K -32.63%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.04%EV -2.63%E -0.351%K -0.404%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.03%EV -6.37%E -1.55%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-07 23:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.17%EV -6.94%E -4.79%K -15.42%G +0.000% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 12.57%EV -3.93%E -0.531%K -0.614%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -8.65%E -2.16%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-07 23:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.17%EV -6.94%E -4.79%K -15.42%G +0.000% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 12.57%EV -3.93%E -0.531%K -0.614%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -8.65%E -2.16%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-07 23:25 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.17%EV -6.94%E -4.79%K -15.42%G +0.000% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 12.57%EV -3.93%E -0.531%K -0.614%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -8.65%E -2.16%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-07 23:25 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.71%EV -6.94%E -4.79%K -15.42%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.94%EV -5.87%E -0.810%K -0.940%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -4.08%E -0.972%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-07 22:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.03%EV -8.22%E -5.75%K -19.12%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.08%EV -9.12%E -1.30%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.89%EV -8.65%E -2.16%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-07 22:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 64.71%EV -9.51%E -6.74%K -23.19%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.03%EV -9.12%E -1.30%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.25%EV -6.37%E -1.55%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-07 23:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.14%EV -10.15%E -7.25%K -25.37%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.83%EV -9.12%E -1.30%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.03%EV -10.93%E -2.80%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-08-07 23:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 64.84%EV -11.43%E -8.28%K -30.08%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.78%EV -9.12%E -1.30%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.37%EV -8.65%E -2.16%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-08-07 23:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 64.84%EV -11.43%E -8.28%K -30.08%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.78%EV -9.12%E -1.30%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.37%EV -8.65%E -2.16%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-08-07 23:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 63.76%EV -10.15%E -7.25%K -25.37%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.75%EV -9.12%E -1.30%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.49%EV -13.22%E -3.48%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-08-07 22:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 64.99%EV -12.72%E -9.35%K -35.32%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.63%EV -9.12%E -1.30%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.38%EV -9.79%E -2.48%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-08-07 23:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 62.44%EV -6.94%E -4.79%K -15.42%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.41%EV -12.37%E -1.83%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.14%EV -14.36%E -3.83%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-08-07 23:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 64.51%EV -12.72%E -9.35%K -35.32%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.00%EV -12.37%E -1.83%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.50%EV -10.93%E -2.80%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-08-07 23:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 64.51%EV -12.72%E -9.35%K -35.32%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.00%EV -12.37%E -1.83%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.50%EV -10.93%E -2.80%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-08-07 23:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 63.36%EV -6.30%E -4.31%K -13.69%G +0.000% | 6.70I 14.93%NM 13.81%EV -13.02%E -1.94%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.84%EV -7.51%E -1.85%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-07 23:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 63.36%EV -6.30%E -4.31%K -13.69%G +0.000% | 6.70I 14.93%NM 13.81%EV -13.02%E -1.94%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.84%EV -7.51%E -1.85%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-07 23:25 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.85%EV -4.37%E -2.93%K -8.92%G +0.000% | 6.62I 15.11%NM 14.15%EV -14.05%E -2.12%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 4.07I 24.57%NM 23.01%EV -7.05%E -1.73%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-07 23:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.07%EV -6.94%E -4.79%K -15.42%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.07%EV -15.61%E -2.40%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -8.65%E -2.16%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-08-07 23:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.23%EV -7.58%E -5.26%K -17.23%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -15.61%E -2.40%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -8.65%E -2.16%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-07 23:25 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.86%EV -7.58%E -5.26%K -17.23%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.93%EV -15.61%E -2.40%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.21%EV -10.93%E -2.80%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-07 23:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.86%EV -7.58%E -5.26%K -17.23%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.93%EV -15.61%E -2.40%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.21%EV -10.93%E -2.80%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-07 23:25 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.86%EV -7.58%E -5.26%K -17.23%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.93%EV -15.61%E -2.40%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.21%EV -10.93%E -2.80%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-07 23:25 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.86%EV -7.58%E -5.26%K -17.23%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.93%EV -15.61%E -2.40%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.21%EV -10.93%E -2.80%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-07 23:25 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.48%EV -7.58%E -5.26%K -17.23%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -15.61%E -2.40%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.68%EV -13.22%E -3.48%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-07 22:54 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.48%EV -7.58%E -5.26%K -17.23%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -15.61%E -2.40%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.68%EV -13.22%E -3.48%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-07 22:54 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 63.88%EV -10.15%E -7.25%K -25.37%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.76%EV -15.61%E -2.40%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -8.65%E -2.16%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-07 22:54 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.24%EV -5.66%E -3.85%K -12.03%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.30%EV -16.91%E -2.64%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.46%EV -10.93%E -2.80%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-08-07 23:05 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.52I 65.79%NM 65.69% | 8.60I 11.63%NM 11.61% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.69% | 0.1% | 2026-08-07 23:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.51I 66.23%NM 65.84% | 8.60I 11.63%NM 11.56% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.60% | 0.6% | 2026-08-07 23:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.51I 66.23%NM 65.84% | 8.60I 11.63%NM 11.56% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.60% | 0.6% | 2026-08-07 23:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.51I 66.23%NM 65.84% | 8.60I 11.63%NM 11.56% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.60% | 0.6% | 2026-08-07 23:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.14% | 8.60I 11.63%NM 11.46% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.40% | 1.5% | 2026-08-07 23:25 |
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