Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Ceará v Ponte Preta

Início: 2026-08-07 23:30 UTC

Final: Ceará 2–0 Ponte Preta

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

42 casas de apostas (15 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Ceará (Local)

Previsão 64.18%1.56odd justa
EV -4.37%
Vantagem -2.93%
Kelly -8.92%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.49

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
62.24%64.13%64.21%65.93%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.361.431.441.4973.53%69.94%69.44%67.11%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Ponte Preta (Visitante)

Previsão 12.98%7.70odd justa
EV +7.24%
Vantagem +0.876%
Kelly +0.997%
Crescimento +0.072%

pressupondo odds máximas de 8.26

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
11.59%13.01%12.94%14.30%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
6.407.077.008.2615.63%14.15%14.29%12.11%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 22.84%4.38odd justa
EV -4.08%
Vantagem -0.972%
Kelly -1.28%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.20

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
22.03%22.86%22.85%24.14%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.754.024.004.2026.67%24.86%25.00%23.81%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Ceará (Local): 64.18%; Ponte Preta (Visitante): 12.98%; Empate: 22.84%. Para Ponte Preta (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 7.70. 1 casa de apostas oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 8.26, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +7.24%.

Odds das casas de apostas (42 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
Pinnacle🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.56%EV -6.30%E -4.31%K -13.69%G +0.000%8.26I 12.11%NM 11.59%EV +7.24%E +0.876%K +0.997%G +0.072%4.19I 23.87%NM 22.85%EV -4.31%E -1.03%K -1.35%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-07 23:20
DraftKings🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.00%EV -6.94%E -4.79%K -15.42%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.57%EV -2.63%E -0.351%K -0.404%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.44%EV -4.08%E -0.972%K -1.28%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-07 23:20
Betway🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.00%EV -6.94%E -4.79%K -15.42%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.57%EV -2.63%E -0.351%K -0.404%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.44%EV -4.08%E -0.972%K -1.28%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-07 23:20
SportsBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.64%EV -6.94%E -4.79%K -15.42%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV -2.63%E -0.351%K -0.404%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -6.37%E -1.55%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-07 22:55
FanDuel🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.64%EV -6.94%E -4.79%K -15.42%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV -2.63%E -0.351%K -0.404%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -6.37%E -1.55%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-07 22:55
betPARX🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.31%EV -8.22%E -5.75%K -19.12%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.45%EV -2.63%E -0.351%K -0.404%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.24%EV -4.08%E -0.972%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-07 23:10
Unibet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.31%EV -8.22%E -5.75%K -19.12%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.45%EV -2.63%E -0.351%K -0.404%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.24%EV -4.08%E -0.972%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-07 23:10
Svenska Spel🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.31%EV -8.22%E -5.75%K -19.12%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.45%EV -2.63%E -0.351%K -0.404%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.24%EV -4.08%E -0.972%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-07 23:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.31%EV -8.22%E -5.75%K -19.12%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.45%EV -2.63%E -0.351%K -0.404%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.24%EV -4.08%E -0.972%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-07 23:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.31%EV -8.22%E -5.75%K -19.12%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.45%EV -2.63%E -0.351%K -0.404%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.24%EV -4.08%E -0.972%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-07 23:10
Casumo🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.31%EV -8.22%E -5.75%K -19.12%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.45%EV -2.63%E -0.351%K -0.404%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.24%EV -4.08%E -0.972%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-07 23:10
ATG (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.31%EV -8.22%E -5.75%K -19.12%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.45%EV -2.63%E -0.351%K -0.404%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.24%EV -4.08%E -0.972%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-07 23:10
Marathon Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.24%EV -7.58%E -5.26%K -17.23%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV -2.63%E -0.351%K -0.404%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.42%EV -9.79%E -2.48%K -3.32%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-07 23:25
Bovada🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.40%EV -8.22%E -5.75%K -19.12%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -2.63%E -0.351%K -0.404%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.32%EV -9.79%E -2.48%K -3.32%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-07 23:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 65.93%EV -12.07%E -8.81%K -32.63%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.04%EV -2.63%E -0.351%K -0.404%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.03%EV -6.37%E -1.55%K -2.05%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-07 23:00
LowVig.ag🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.17%EV -6.94%E -4.79%K -15.42%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.57%EV -3.93%E -0.531%K -0.614%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -8.65%E -2.16%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-07 23:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.17%EV -6.94%E -4.79%K -15.42%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.57%EV -3.93%E -0.531%K -0.614%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -8.65%E -2.16%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-07 23:25
BetUS🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.17%EV -6.94%E -4.79%K -15.42%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.57%EV -3.93%E -0.531%K -0.614%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -8.65%E -2.16%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-07 23:25
Coolbet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.71%EV -6.94%E -4.79%K -15.42%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.94%EV -5.87%E -0.810%K -0.940%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -4.08%E -0.972%K -1.28%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-07 22:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.03%EV -8.22%E -5.75%K -19.12%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.08%EV -9.12%E -1.30%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.89%EV -8.65%E -2.16%K -2.88%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-07 22:50
BetRivers🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 64.71%EV -9.51%E -6.74%K -23.19%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.03%EV -9.12%E -1.30%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.25%EV -6.37%E -1.55%K -2.05%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-07 23:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.14%EV -10.15%E -7.25%K -25.37%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.83%EV -9.12%E -1.30%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.03%EV -10.93%E -2.80%K -3.77%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-07 23:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 64.84%EV -11.43%E -8.28%K -30.08%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.78%EV -9.12%E -1.30%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.37%EV -8.65%E -2.16%K -2.88%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-07 23:10
Grosvenor🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 64.84%EV -11.43%E -8.28%K -30.08%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.78%EV -9.12%E -1.30%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.37%EV -8.65%E -2.16%K -2.88%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-07 23:10
Paddy Power🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.76%EV -10.15%E -7.25%K -25.37%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.75%EV -9.12%E -1.30%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.49%EV -13.22%E -3.48%K -4.72%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-07 22:40
TABtouch🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 64.99%EV -12.72%E -9.35%K -35.32%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.63%EV -9.12%E -1.30%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.38%EV -9.79%E -2.48%K -3.32%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-07 23:10
PlayUp🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.44%EV -6.94%E -4.79%K -15.42%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.41%EV -12.37%E -1.83%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.14%EV -14.36%E -3.83%K -5.22%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-07 23:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 64.51%EV -12.72%E -9.35%K -35.32%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.00%EV -12.37%E -1.83%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.50%EV -10.93%E -2.80%K -3.77%G +0.000%14.0%2026-08-07 23:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 64.51%EV -12.72%E -9.35%K -35.32%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.00%EV -12.37%E -1.83%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.50%EV -10.93%E -2.80%K -3.77%G +0.000%14.0%2026-08-07 23:10
NordicBet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 63.36%EV -6.30%E -4.31%K -13.69%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.81%EV -13.02%E -1.94%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.84%EV -7.51%E -1.85%K -2.46%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-07 23:25
Betsson🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 63.36%EV -6.30%E -4.31%K -13.69%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.81%EV -13.02%E -1.94%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.84%EV -7.51%E -1.85%K -2.46%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-07 23:25
1xBet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.85%EV -4.37%E -2.93%K -8.92%G +0.000%6.62I 15.11%NM 14.15%EV -14.05%E -2.12%K -2.50%G +0.000%4.07I 24.57%NM 23.01%EV -7.05%E -1.73%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-07 23:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.07%EV -6.94%E -4.79%K -15.42%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.07%EV -15.61%E -2.40%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -8.65%E -2.16%K -2.88%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-07 23:25
LeoVegas🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.23%EV -7.58%E -5.26%K -17.23%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -15.61%E -2.40%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -8.65%E -2.16%K -2.88%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-07 23:25
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.86%EV -7.58%E -5.26%K -17.23%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.93%EV -15.61%E -2.40%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.21%EV -10.93%E -2.80%K -3.77%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-07 23:20
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.86%EV -7.58%E -5.26%K -17.23%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.93%EV -15.61%E -2.40%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.21%EV -10.93%E -2.80%K -3.77%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-07 23:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.86%EV -7.58%E -5.26%K -17.23%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.93%EV -15.61%E -2.40%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.21%EV -10.93%E -2.80%K -3.77%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-07 23:25
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.86%EV -7.58%E -5.26%K -17.23%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.93%EV -15.61%E -2.40%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.21%EV -10.93%E -2.80%K -3.77%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-07 23:25
Bet Victor🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.48%EV -7.58%E -5.26%K -17.23%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -15.61%E -2.40%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.68%EV -13.22%E -3.48%K -4.72%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-07 22:54
betano_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.48%EV -7.58%E -5.26%K -17.23%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -15.61%E -2.40%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.68%EV -13.22%E -3.48%K -4.72%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-07 22:54
betfred_uk🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.88%EV -10.15%E -7.25%K -25.37%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.76%EV -15.61%E -2.40%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -8.65%E -2.16%K -2.88%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-07 22:54
Codere (IT)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.24%EV -5.66%E -3.85%K -12.03%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.30%EV -16.91%E -2.64%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.46%EV -10.93%E -2.80%K -3.77%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-07 23:05
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook◎1.52I 65.79%NM 65.69%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.61%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.69%0.1%2026-08-07 23:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.51I 66.23%NM 65.84%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.56%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.60%0.6%2026-08-07 23:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.51I 66.23%NM 65.84%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.56%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.60%0.6%2026-08-07 23:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.51I 66.23%NM 65.84%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.56%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.60%0.6%2026-08-07 23:20
Smarkets◎1.49I 67.11%NM 66.14%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.46%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.40%1.5%2026-08-07 23:25