Language:English
Botafogo-SP v Grêmio Novorizontino
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Botafogo-SP (Local)
Prediction 28.14%3.55fair odd
EV +0.734%
Edge +0.205%
Kelly +0.285%
Growth +0.002%
assuming max odds 3.58
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.78%28.06%28.17%29.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.243.253.5833.33%30.84%30.77%27.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Grêmio Novorizontino (Visit)
Prediction 42.65%2.34fair odd
EV -0.629%
Edge -0.270%
Kelly -0.473%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.33
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.35%42.61%42.59%45.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.192.202.3350.00%45.73%45.45%42.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 29.21%3.42fair odd
EV -3.60%
Edge -1.09%
Kelly -1.56%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.56%29.32%29.24%31.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.073.103.3036.36%32.54%32.26%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Botafogo-SP (Local): 28.14%; Grêmio Novorizontino (Visit): 42.65%; Draw: 29.21%. For Botafogo-SP (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.55. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.58, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.734%.
Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.58I 27.93%NM 26.89%EV +0.734%E +0.205%K +0.285%G +0.002% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.76%EV -6.17%E -2.81%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 3.28I 30.49%NM 29.35%EV -4.18%E -1.27%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-09 16:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.55%EV -0.110%E -0.031%K -0.043%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.89%EV -10.44%E -4.97%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.56%EV -3.60%E -1.09%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-09 17:10 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.55%EV -0.110%E -0.031%K -0.043%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.89%EV -10.44%E -4.97%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.56%EV -3.60%E -1.09%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-09 17:10 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -1.52%E -0.433%K -0.607%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -14.70%E -7.35%K -14.70%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -9.44%E -3.04%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-09-09 17:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.55%EV -2.92%E -0.848%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.20%EV -6.17%E -2.81%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.25%EV -5.06%E -1.56%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-09 16:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.87%EV -2.92%E -0.848%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.15%EV -10.44%E -4.97%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.97%EV -6.52%E -2.04%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-09 16:05 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -4.33%E -1.27%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.74%EV -7.03%E -3.22%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.86%EV -8.85%E -2.84%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-09 16:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.07%EV -4.33%E -1.27%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.42%EV -9.59%E -4.52%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.50%EV -8.85%E -2.84%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-09 16:03 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.38I 29.59%NM 27.41%EV -4.89%E -1.45%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 42.89%EV -7.88%E -3.65%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.70%EV -8.85%E -2.84%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-09 16:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -7.14%E -2.17%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.23%EV -8.31%E -3.86%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -5.06%E -1.56%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-09 17:10 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -7.14%E -2.17%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -6.17%E -2.81%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -9.44%E -3.04%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-09 14:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -7.14%E -2.17%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -8.31%E -3.86%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -9.44%E -3.04%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-09 14:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -7.14%E -2.17%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -8.31%E -3.86%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -9.44%E -3.04%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-09 14:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -8.55%E -2.63%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -6.17%E -2.81%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -5.06%E -1.56%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-09 14:56 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -8.55%E -2.63%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -6.17%E -2.81%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -5.06%E -1.56%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-09 14:56 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -8.55%E -2.63%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 39.89%EV -0.629%E -0.270%K -0.473%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.51%EV -13.82%E -4.68%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-09 15:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -8.55%E -2.63%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 39.89%EV -0.629%E -0.270%K -0.473%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.51%EV -13.82%E -4.68%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-09 15:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -8.55%E -2.63%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 39.89%EV -0.629%E -0.270%K -0.473%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.51%EV -13.82%E -4.68%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-09 15:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -8.55%E -2.63%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 39.89%EV -0.629%E -0.270%K -0.473%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.51%EV -13.82%E -4.68%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-09 15:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -8.55%E -2.63%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 39.89%EV -0.629%E -0.270%K -0.473%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.51%EV -13.82%E -4.68%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-09 15:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -8.55%E -2.63%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 39.89%EV -0.629%E -0.270%K -0.473%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.51%EV -13.82%E -4.68%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-09 15:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -8.55%E -2.63%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 39.89%EV -0.629%E -0.270%K -0.473%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.51%EV -13.82%E -4.68%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-09 15:00 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.15%EV -8.55%E -2.63%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 42.35%EV -7.88%E -3.65%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -9.44%E -3.04%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-09 14:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -8.55%E -2.63%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -6.17%E -2.81%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -12.36%E -4.12%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-09 15:35 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -8.55%E -2.63%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -6.17%E -2.81%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -12.36%E -4.12%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-09 15:35 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -8.55%E -2.63%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -6.17%E -2.81%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -12.36%E -4.12%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-09 15:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -8.55%E -2.63%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -6.17%E -2.81%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -12.36%E -4.12%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-09 15:35 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.92%EV -8.55%E -2.63%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 42.80%EV -9.59%E -4.52%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -9.44%E -3.04%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-09 16:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -9.96%E -3.11%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -6.17%E -2.81%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -5.06%E -1.56%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-09 14:54 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -9.96%E -3.11%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -6.17%E -2.81%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -6.52%E -2.04%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-09 14:54 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -9.96%E -3.11%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.14%EV -7.03%E -3.22%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.16%EV -7.98%E -2.53%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-09 16:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -9.96%E -3.11%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -8.31%E -3.86%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -6.52%E -2.04%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-09 14:54 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -9.96%E -3.11%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -8.31%E -3.86%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -9.44%E -3.04%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-09 16:34 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.12%EV -9.96%E -3.11%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.85%EV -10.44%E -4.97%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.03%EV -9.44%E -3.04%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-09 14:54 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.12%EV -9.96%E -3.11%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.85%EV -10.44%E -4.97%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.03%EV -9.44%E -3.04%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-09 14:54 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.83%EV -9.96%E -3.11%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.44%EV -12.57%E -6.13%K -11.97%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -9.44%E -3.04%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-09-09 14:54 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.87%EV -11.37%E -3.61%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.54%EV -1.91%E -0.830%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.58%EV -15.86%E -5.51%K -8.44%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-09 14:56 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -12.77%E -4.12%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.17%EV -4.04%E -1.80%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -6.52%E -2.04%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-09 14:45 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -12.77%E -4.12%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -6.17%E -2.81%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -6.52%E -2.04%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-09 14:55 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -12.77%E -4.12%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -8.31%E -3.86%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -9.44%E -3.04%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-09 14:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -12.77%E -4.12%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.47%EV -10.44%E -4.97%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -9.44%E -3.04%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-09 16:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -12.77%E -4.12%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.47%EV -10.44%E -4.97%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -9.44%E -3.04%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-09 16:35 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -12.77%E -4.12%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.47%EV -10.44%E -4.97%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -9.44%E -3.04%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-09 16:35 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -12.77%E -4.12%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.47%EV -10.44%E -4.97%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -9.44%E -3.04%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-09 16:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -12.77%E -4.12%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.54%EV -4.04%E -1.80%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -18.20%E -6.50%K -10.11%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-09-09 15:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.03%EV -14.18%E -4.65%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.35%EV -4.04%E -1.80%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.62%EV -18.20%E -6.50%K -10.11%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-09-09 15:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.93%EV -14.18%E -4.65%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 39.56%EV -4.89%E -2.19%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.51%EV -18.20%E -6.50%K -10.11%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-09-09 15:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.95%EV -15.59%E -5.20%K -7.79%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 39.47%EV -6.17%E -2.81%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.58%EV -19.66%E -7.15%K -11.24%G +0.000% | 15.2% | 2026-09-09 15:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.95%EV -15.59%E -5.20%K -7.79%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 39.47%EV -6.17%E -2.81%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.58%EV -19.66%E -7.15%K -11.24%G +0.000% | 15.2% | 2026-09-09 15:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.18% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.76% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.06% | 0.8% | 2026-09-09 17:41 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.18% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.76% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.06% | 0.8% | 2026-09-09 17:41 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.08% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.97% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.95% | 1.2% | 2026-09-09 17:41 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.08% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.97% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.95% | 1.2% | 2026-09-09 17:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.08% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.97% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.95% | 1.2% | 2026-09-09 17:41 |