Idioma:Español
Botafogo-SP v Grêmio Novorizontino
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Botafogo-SP (Local)
Predicción 28.14%3.55momio equitativo
EV +0.734%
Ventaja +0.205%
Kelly +0.285%
Crecimiento +0.002%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.58
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.78%28.06%28.17%29.88%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.003.243.253.5833.33%30.84%30.77%27.93%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Grêmio Novorizontino (Visitante)
Predicción 42.65%2.34momio equitativo
EV -0.629%
Ventaja -0.270%
Kelly -0.473%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.33
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
39.35%42.61%42.59%45.11%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.002.192.202.3350.00%45.73%45.45%42.92%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 29.21%3.42momio equitativo
EV -3.60%
Ventaja -1.09%
Kelly -1.56%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.30
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.56%29.32%29.24%31.77%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.753.073.103.3036.36%32.54%32.26%30.30%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Botafogo-SP (Local): 28.14%; Grêmio Novorizontino (Visitante): 42.65%; Empate: 29.21%. Para Botafogo-SP (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.55. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.58, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.734%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (49 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.58I 27.93%NM 26.89%EV +0.734%E +0.205%K +0.285%G +0.002% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.76%EV -6.17%E -2.81%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 3.28I 30.49%NM 29.35%EV -4.18%E -1.27%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-09 16:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.55%EV -0.110%E -0.031%K -0.043%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.89%EV -10.44%E -4.97%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.56%EV -3.60%E -1.09%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-09 17:10 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.55%EV -0.110%E -0.031%K -0.043%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.89%EV -10.44%E -4.97%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.56%EV -3.60%E -1.09%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-09 17:10 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -1.52%E -0.433%K -0.607%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -14.70%E -7.35%K -14.70%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -9.44%E -3.04%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-09-09 17:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.55%EV -2.92%E -0.848%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.20%EV -6.17%E -2.81%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.25%EV -5.06%E -1.56%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-09 16:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.87%EV -2.92%E -0.848%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.15%EV -10.44%E -4.97%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.97%EV -6.52%E -2.04%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-09 16:05 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -4.33%E -1.27%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.74%EV -7.03%E -3.22%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.86%EV -8.85%E -2.84%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-09 16:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.07%EV -4.33%E -1.27%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.42%EV -9.59%E -4.52%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.50%EV -8.85%E -2.84%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-09 16:03 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.38I 29.59%NM 27.41%EV -4.89%E -1.45%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 42.89%EV -7.88%E -3.65%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.70%EV -8.85%E -2.84%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-09 16:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -7.14%E -2.17%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.23%EV -8.31%E -3.86%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -5.06%E -1.56%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-09 17:10 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -7.14%E -2.17%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -6.17%E -2.81%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -9.44%E -3.04%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-09 14:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -7.14%E -2.17%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -8.31%E -3.86%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -9.44%E -3.04%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-09 14:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -7.14%E -2.17%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -8.31%E -3.86%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -9.44%E -3.04%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-09 14:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -8.55%E -2.63%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -6.17%E -2.81%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -5.06%E -1.56%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-09 14:56 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -8.55%E -2.63%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -6.17%E -2.81%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.76%EV -5.06%E -1.56%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-09 14:56 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -8.55%E -2.63%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 39.89%EV -0.629%E -0.270%K -0.473%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.51%EV -13.82%E -4.68%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-09 15:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -8.55%E -2.63%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 39.89%EV -0.629%E -0.270%K -0.473%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.51%EV -13.82%E -4.68%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-09 15:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -8.55%E -2.63%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 39.89%EV -0.629%E -0.270%K -0.473%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.51%EV -13.82%E -4.68%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-09 15:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -8.55%E -2.63%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 39.89%EV -0.629%E -0.270%K -0.473%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.51%EV -13.82%E -4.68%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-09 15:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -8.55%E -2.63%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 39.89%EV -0.629%E -0.270%K -0.473%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.51%EV -13.82%E -4.68%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-09 15:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -8.55%E -2.63%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 39.89%EV -0.629%E -0.270%K -0.473%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.51%EV -13.82%E -4.68%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-09 15:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -8.55%E -2.63%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 39.89%EV -0.629%E -0.270%K -0.473%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.51%EV -13.82%E -4.68%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-09 15:00 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.15%EV -8.55%E -2.63%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 42.35%EV -7.88%E -3.65%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -9.44%E -3.04%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-09 14:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -8.55%E -2.63%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -6.17%E -2.81%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -12.36%E -4.12%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-09 15:35 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -8.55%E -2.63%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -6.17%E -2.81%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -12.36%E -4.12%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-09 15:35 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -8.55%E -2.63%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -6.17%E -2.81%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -12.36%E -4.12%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-09 15:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -8.55%E -2.63%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -6.17%E -2.81%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -12.36%E -4.12%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-09 15:35 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.92%EV -8.55%E -2.63%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 42.80%EV -9.59%E -4.52%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -9.44%E -3.04%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-09 16:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -9.96%E -3.11%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -6.17%E -2.81%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -5.06%E -1.56%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-09 14:54 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -9.96%E -3.11%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -6.17%E -2.81%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -6.52%E -2.04%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-09 14:54 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -9.96%E -3.11%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.14%EV -7.03%E -3.22%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.16%EV -7.98%E -2.53%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-09 16:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -9.96%E -3.11%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -8.31%E -3.86%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -6.52%E -2.04%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-09 14:54 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -9.96%E -3.11%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -8.31%E -3.86%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -9.44%E -3.04%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-09 16:34 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.12%EV -9.96%E -3.11%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.85%EV -10.44%E -4.97%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.03%EV -9.44%E -3.04%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-09 14:54 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.12%EV -9.96%E -3.11%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.85%EV -10.44%E -4.97%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.03%EV -9.44%E -3.04%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-09 14:54 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.83%EV -9.96%E -3.11%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.44%EV -12.57%E -6.13%K -11.97%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -9.44%E -3.04%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-09-09 14:54 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.87%EV -11.37%E -3.61%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.54%EV -1.91%E -0.830%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.58%EV -15.86%E -5.51%K -8.44%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-09 14:56 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -12.77%E -4.12%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.17%EV -4.04%E -1.80%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -6.52%E -2.04%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-09 14:45 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -12.77%E -4.12%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -6.17%E -2.81%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -6.52%E -2.04%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-09 14:55 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -12.77%E -4.12%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -8.31%E -3.86%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -9.44%E -3.04%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-09 14:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -12.77%E -4.12%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.47%EV -10.44%E -4.97%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -9.44%E -3.04%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-09 16:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -12.77%E -4.12%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.47%EV -10.44%E -4.97%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -9.44%E -3.04%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-09 16:35 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -12.77%E -4.12%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.47%EV -10.44%E -4.97%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -9.44%E -3.04%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-09 16:35 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -12.77%E -4.12%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.47%EV -10.44%E -4.97%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -9.44%E -3.04%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-09 16:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -12.77%E -4.12%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.54%EV -4.04%E -1.80%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -18.20%E -6.50%K -10.11%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-09-09 15:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.03%EV -14.18%E -4.65%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.35%EV -4.04%E -1.80%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.62%EV -18.20%E -6.50%K -10.11%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-09-09 15:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.93%EV -14.18%E -4.65%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 39.56%EV -4.89%E -2.19%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.51%EV -18.20%E -6.50%K -10.11%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-09-09 15:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.95%EV -15.59%E -5.20%K -7.79%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 39.47%EV -6.17%E -2.81%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.58%EV -19.66%E -7.15%K -11.24%G +0.000% | 15.2% | 2026-09-09 15:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.95%EV -15.59%E -5.20%K -7.79%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 39.47%EV -6.17%E -2.81%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.58%EV -19.66%E -7.15%K -11.24%G +0.000% | 15.2% | 2026-09-09 15:00 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.18% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.76% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.06% | 0.8% | 2026-09-09 17:41 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.18% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.76% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.06% | 0.8% | 2026-09-09 17:41 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.08% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.97% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.95% | 1.2% | 2026-09-09 17:41 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.08% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.97% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.95% | 1.2% | 2026-09-09 17:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.08% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.97% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.95% | 1.2% | 2026-09-09 17:41 |