Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Avai v Cuiabá

Kickoff: 2026-06-21 14:02 UTC

Final: Avai 1–0 Cuiabá

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

44 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Avai (Local)

Prediction 32.89%3.04fair odd
EV -1.32%
Edge -0.440%
Kelly -0.660%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.33%32.82%33.07%34.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.732.753.0040.00%36.61%36.36%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cuiabá (Visit)

Prediction 33.81%2.96fair odd
EV -0.930%
Edge -0.317%
Kelly -0.482%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.93

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.73%33.90%33.67%35.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.712.752.9340.00%36.93%36.36%34.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 33.29%3.00fair odd
EV -1.78%
Edge -0.604%
Kelly -0.913%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.39%33.29%33.27%35.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.782.792.9541.67%35.92%35.84%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Avai (Local): 32.89%; Cuiabá (Visit): 33.81%; Draw: 33.29%. For Cuiabá (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.96. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.93, with an expected value of -0.930%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (44 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.43%EV -1.32%E -0.440%K -0.660%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.16%EV -6.68%E -2.42%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.41%EV -8.77%E -3.20%K -5.04%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-21 13:59
Pinnacle🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 32.33%EV -1.98%E -0.664%K -0.999%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.88%EV -0.930%E -0.317%K -0.482%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 34.78%EV -7.77%E -2.81%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.8%2026-06-21 13:59
BetOnline.ag🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 31.65%EV -1.98%E -0.664%K -0.999%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.93%EV -6.00%E -2.16%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.42%EV -8.77%E -3.20%K -5.04%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-21 13:59
DraftKings🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -4.61%E -1.59%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.72%EV -5.33%E -1.90%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.72%EV -6.78%E -2.42%K -3.76%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-21 13:59
Marathon Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.96%EV -4.61%E -1.59%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 33.96%EV -7.69%E -2.82%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.08%EV -9.44%E -3.47%K -5.49%G +0.000%7.9%2026-06-21 13:59
FanDuel🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.96%EV -4.61%E -1.59%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%EV -7.02%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.33%EV -10.10%E -3.74%K -5.94%G +0.000%7.9%2026-06-21 13:58
Bovada🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.06%EV -5.27%E -1.83%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.22%EV -6.00%E -2.16%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 34.72%EV -11.44%E -4.30%K -6.89%G +0.000%8.3%2026-06-21 13:56
SportsBet🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 32.19%EV -5.60%E -1.95%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.59%EV -7.02%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.22%EV -10.10%E -3.74%K -5.94%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-21 14:00
1xBet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.85%EV -6.25%E -2.19%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 34.30%EV -7.69%E -2.82%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.85%EV -5.11%E -1.79%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-21 13:59
Coolbet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.30%EV -7.90%E -2.82%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.54%EV -8.71%E -3.22%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.16%EV -3.45%E -1.19%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.2%2026-06-21 13:58
Unibet (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.13%EV -7.90%E -2.82%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -7.02%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.13%EV -6.78%E -2.42%K -3.76%G +0.000%7.8%2026-06-21 13:59
Betway🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.13%EV -7.90%E -2.82%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.13%EV -5.33%E -1.90%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -8.44%E -3.07%K -4.82%G +0.000%7.8%2026-06-21 14:00
888sport🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.73%EV -7.90%E -2.82%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.33%EV -7.02%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.94%EV -10.10%E -3.74%K -5.94%G +0.000%9.1%2026-06-21 13:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.73%EV -7.90%E -2.82%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.33%EV -7.02%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.94%EV -10.10%E -3.74%K -5.94%G +0.000%9.1%2026-06-21 13:59
theScore Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.50%EV -7.90%E -2.82%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.00%EV -12.09%E -4.65%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.50%EV -6.78%E -2.42%K -3.76%G +0.000%9.9%2026-06-21 13:59
Paddy Power🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.20%EV -7.90%E -2.82%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.39%EV -8.71%E -3.22%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.41%EV -12.77%E -4.87%K -7.88%G +0.000%10.9%2026-06-21 14:00
NordicBet🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 33.33%EV -8.56%E -3.08%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.33%EV -6.00%E -2.16%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.33%EV -7.44%E -2.68%K -4.18%G +0.000%7.9%2026-06-21 13:59
Betsson🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 33.33%EV -8.56%E -3.08%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.33%EV -6.00%E -2.16%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.33%EV -7.44%E -2.68%K -4.18%G +0.000%7.9%2026-06-21 13:59
Codere (IT)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.33%EV -9.54%E -3.47%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.33%EV -7.02%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.33%EV -8.44%E -3.07%K -4.82%G +0.000%9.1%2026-06-21 14:00
William Hill🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.33%EV -9.54%E -3.47%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.73%EV -5.33%E -1.90%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.94%EV -10.10%E -3.74%K -5.94%G +0.000%9.1%2026-06-21 14:00
888sport (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.33%EV -9.54%E -3.47%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.73%EV -5.33%E -1.90%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.94%EV -10.10%E -3.74%K -5.94%G +0.000%9.1%2026-06-21 13:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.30%EV -9.54%E -3.47%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.56%EV -10.40%E -3.92%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.14%EV -5.11%E -1.79%K -2.76%G +0.000%9.2%2026-06-21 13:59
PlayUp🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.93%EV -9.54%E -3.47%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.54%EV -8.71%E -3.22%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.54%EV -10.10%E -3.74%K -5.94%G +0.000%10.4%2026-06-21 14:00
betfred_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.90%EV -9.54%E -3.47%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.79%EV -12.09%E -4.65%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.31%EV -6.78%E -2.42%K -3.76%G +0.000%10.5%2026-06-21 13:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 31.33%EV -9.54%E -3.47%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 32.76%EV -11.07%E -4.21%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.90%EV -20.09%E -8.37%K -14.35%G +0.000%16.1%2026-06-21 14:00
BetMGM🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.71%EV -11.19%E -4.14%K -6.58%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.35%EV -10.40%E -3.92%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.94%EV -5.11%E -1.79%K -2.76%G +0.000%9.9%2026-06-21 14:00
Unibet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.94%EV -12.83%E -4.84%K -7.78%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.67%EV -7.02%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.39%EV -1.78%E -0.604%K -0.913%G +0.000%8.0%2026-06-21 13:59
Casumo🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.94%EV -12.83%E -4.84%K -7.78%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.67%EV -7.02%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.39%EV -1.78%E -0.604%K -0.913%G +0.000%8.0%2026-06-21 13:59
Unibet (NL)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.94%EV -12.83%E -4.84%K -7.78%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.67%EV -7.02%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.39%EV -1.78%E -0.604%K -0.913%G +0.000%8.0%2026-06-21 13:59
Unibet (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.94%EV -12.83%E -4.84%K -7.78%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.67%EV -7.02%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.39%EV -1.78%E -0.604%K -0.913%G +0.000%8.0%2026-06-21 14:00
betPARX🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.94%EV -12.83%E -4.84%K -7.78%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.67%EV -7.02%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.39%EV -1.78%E -0.604%K -0.913%G +0.000%8.0%2026-06-21 13:59
ATG (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.94%EV -12.83%E -4.84%K -7.78%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.67%EV -7.02%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.39%EV -1.78%E -0.604%K -0.913%G +0.000%8.0%2026-06-21 13:59
Svenska Spel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.94%EV -12.83%E -4.84%K -7.78%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.67%EV -7.02%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.39%EV -1.78%E -0.604%K -0.913%G +0.000%8.0%2026-06-21 13:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.02%EV -13.49%E -5.13%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.02%EV -11.07%E -4.21%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.96%EV -6.78%E -2.42%K -3.76%G +0.000%11.8%2026-06-21 13:59
Neds🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.02%EV -13.49%E -5.13%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.02%EV -11.07%E -4.21%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.96%EV -6.78%E -2.42%K -3.76%G +0.000%11.8%2026-06-21 13:59
Coral🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.06%EV -13.82%E -5.27%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.06%EV -11.41%E -4.36%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.87%EV -6.78%E -2.42%K -3.76%G +0.000%12.1%2026-06-21 13:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.06%EV -13.82%E -5.27%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.06%EV -11.41%E -4.36%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.87%EV -6.78%E -2.42%K -3.76%G +0.000%12.1%2026-06-21 14:00
BoyleSports🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.33%EV -13.82%E -5.27%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.92%EV -15.47%E -6.19%K -10.31%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.75%EV -8.44%E -3.07%K -4.82%G +0.000%14.5%2026-06-21 13:59
Grosvenor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.81%EV -16.12%E -6.32%K -10.40%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.49%EV -10.40%E -3.92%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.70%EV -6.78%E -2.42%K -3.76%G +0.000%12.7%2026-06-21 13:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.72%EV -16.12%E -6.32%K -10.40%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.66%EV -11.07%E -4.21%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.62%EV -6.78%E -2.42%K -3.76%G +0.000%13.0%2026-06-21 13:59
TABtouch🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.72%EV -16.12%E -6.32%K -10.40%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.66%EV -11.07%E -4.21%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.62%EV -6.78%E -2.42%K -3.76%G +0.000%13.0%2026-06-21 14:00
LiveScore Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.84%EV -17.77%E -7.11%K -11.84%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.50%EV -12.09%E -4.65%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.67%EV -8.44%E -3.07%K -4.82%G +0.000%14.8%2026-06-21 14:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.84%EV -17.77%E -7.11%K -11.84%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.50%EV -12.09%E -4.65%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.67%EV -8.44%E -3.07%K -4.82%G +0.000%14.8%2026-06-21 13:59
LeoVegas🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.84%EV -17.77%E -7.11%K -11.84%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.50%EV -12.09%E -4.65%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.67%EV -8.44%E -3.07%K -4.82%G +0.000%14.8%2026-06-21 13:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook3.15I 31.75%NM 31.60%2.92I 34.25%NM 34.08%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.32%0.5%2026-06-21 13:59
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.99%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.99%0.8%2026-06-21 14:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.76%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.22%0.8%2026-06-21 14:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.76%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.22%0.8%2026-06-21 14:00
Smarkets3.10I 32.26%NM 31.94%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.91%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.15%1.0%2026-06-21 14:00