La escuela de los momios

Avai v Cuiabá

Inicio: 2026-06-21 14:02 UTC

Final: Avai 1–0 Cuiabá

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

44 corredores (15 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Avai (Local)

Predicción 32.89%3.04momio equitativo
EV -1.32%
Ventaja -0.440%
Kelly -0.660%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
31.33%32.82%33.07%34.94%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.502.732.753.0040.00%36.61%36.36%33.33%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Cuiabá (Visitante)

Predicción 33.81%2.96momio equitativo
EV -0.930%
Ventaja -0.317%
Kelly -0.482%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.93

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
32.73%33.90%33.67%35.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.502.712.752.9340.00%36.93%36.36%34.13%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 33.29%3.00momio equitativo
EV -1.78%
Ventaja -0.604%
Kelly -0.913%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.95

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
31.39%33.29%33.27%35.90%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.402.782.792.9541.67%35.92%35.84%33.90%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (44 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
LowVig.ag3.00I 33.33%NM 31.43%EV -1.32%E -0.440%K -0.660%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.16%EV -6.68%E -2.42%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.41%EV -8.77%E -3.20%K -5.04%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-21 13:59
Pinnacle2.98I 33.56%NM 32.33%EV -1.98%E -0.664%K -0.999%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.88%EV -0.930%E -0.317%K -0.482%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 34.78%EV -7.77%E -2.81%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.8%2026-06-21 13:59
BetOnline.ag2.98I 33.56%NM 31.65%EV -1.98%E -0.664%K -0.999%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.93%EV -6.00%E -2.16%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.42%EV -8.77%E -3.20%K -5.04%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-21 13:59
DraftKings2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -4.61%E -1.59%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.72%EV -5.33%E -1.90%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.72%EV -6.78%E -2.42%K -3.76%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-21 13:59
Marathon Bet2.90I 34.48%NM 31.96%EV -4.61%E -1.59%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 33.96%EV -7.69%E -2.82%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.08%EV -9.44%E -3.47%K -5.49%G +0.000%7.9%2026-06-21 13:59
FanDuel2.90I 34.48%NM 31.96%EV -4.61%E -1.59%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%EV -7.02%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.33%EV -10.10%E -3.74%K -5.94%G +0.000%7.9%2026-06-21 13:58
Bovada2.88I 34.72%NM 32.06%EV -5.27%E -1.83%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.22%EV -6.00%E -2.16%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 34.72%EV -11.44%E -4.30%K -6.89%G +0.000%8.3%2026-06-21 13:56
SportsBet2.87I 34.84%NM 32.19%EV -5.60%E -1.95%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.59%EV -7.02%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.22%EV -10.10%E -3.74%K -5.94%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-21 14:00
1xBet2.85I 35.09%NM 32.85%EV -6.25%E -2.19%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 34.30%EV -7.69%E -2.82%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.85%EV -5.11%E -1.79%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-21 13:59
Coolbet2.80I 35.71%NM 33.30%EV -7.90%E -2.82%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.54%EV -8.71%E -3.22%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.16%EV -3.45%E -1.19%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.2%2026-06-21 13:58
Unibet (UK)2.80I 35.71%NM 33.13%EV -7.90%E -2.82%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -7.02%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.13%EV -6.78%E -2.42%K -3.76%G +0.000%7.8%2026-06-21 13:59
Betway2.80I 35.71%NM 33.13%EV -7.90%E -2.82%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.13%EV -5.33%E -1.90%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -8.44%E -3.07%K -4.82%G +0.000%7.8%2026-06-21 14:00
888sport2.80I 35.71%NM 32.73%EV -7.90%E -2.82%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.33%EV -7.02%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.94%EV -10.10%E -3.74%K -5.94%G +0.000%9.1%2026-06-21 13:59
Mr Green (SE)2.80I 35.71%NM 32.73%EV -7.90%E -2.82%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.33%EV -7.02%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.94%EV -10.10%E -3.74%K -5.94%G +0.000%9.1%2026-06-21 13:59
theScore Bet2.80I 35.71%NM 32.50%EV -7.90%E -2.82%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.00%EV -12.09%E -4.65%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.50%EV -6.78%E -2.42%K -3.76%G +0.000%9.9%2026-06-21 13:59
Paddy Power2.80I 35.71%NM 32.20%EV -7.90%E -2.82%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.39%EV -8.71%E -3.22%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.41%EV -12.77%E -4.87%K -7.88%G +0.000%10.9%2026-06-21 14:00
NordicBet2.78I 35.97%NM 33.33%EV -8.56%E -3.08%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.33%EV -6.00%E -2.16%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.33%EV -7.44%E -2.68%K -4.18%G +0.000%7.9%2026-06-21 13:59
Betsson2.78I 35.97%NM 33.33%EV -8.56%E -3.08%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.33%EV -6.00%E -2.16%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.33%EV -7.44%E -2.68%K -4.18%G +0.000%7.9%2026-06-21 13:59
Codere (IT)2.75I 36.36%NM 33.33%EV -9.54%E -3.47%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.33%EV -7.02%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.33%EV -8.44%E -3.07%K -4.82%G +0.000%9.1%2026-06-21 14:00
William Hill2.75I 36.36%NM 33.33%EV -9.54%E -3.47%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.73%EV -5.33%E -1.90%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.94%EV -10.10%E -3.74%K -5.94%G +0.000%9.1%2026-06-21 14:00
888sport (SE)2.75I 36.36%NM 33.33%EV -9.54%E -3.47%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.73%EV -5.33%E -1.90%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.94%EV -10.10%E -3.74%K -5.94%G +0.000%9.1%2026-06-21 13:59
PointsBet (AU)2.75I 36.36%NM 33.30%EV -9.54%E -3.47%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.56%EV -10.40%E -3.92%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.14%EV -5.11%E -1.79%K -2.76%G +0.000%9.2%2026-06-21 13:59
PlayUp2.75I 36.36%NM 32.93%EV -9.54%E -3.47%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.54%EV -8.71%E -3.22%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.54%EV -10.10%E -3.74%K -5.94%G +0.000%10.4%2026-06-21 14:00
betfred_uk2.75I 36.36%NM 32.90%EV -9.54%E -3.47%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.79%EV -12.09%E -4.65%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.31%EV -6.78%E -2.42%K -3.76%G +0.000%10.5%2026-06-21 13:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.75I 36.36%NM 31.33%EV -9.54%E -3.47%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 32.76%EV -11.07%E -4.21%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.90%EV -20.09%E -8.37%K -14.35%G +0.000%16.1%2026-06-21 14:00
BetMGM2.70I 37.04%NM 33.71%EV -11.19%E -4.14%K -6.58%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.35%EV -10.40%E -3.92%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.94%EV -5.11%E -1.79%K -2.76%G +0.000%9.9%2026-06-21 14:00
Unibet2.65I 37.74%NM 34.94%EV -12.83%E -4.84%K -7.78%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.67%EV -7.02%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.39%EV -1.78%E -0.604%K -0.913%G +0.000%8.0%2026-06-21 13:59
Casumo2.65I 37.74%NM 34.94%EV -12.83%E -4.84%K -7.78%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.67%EV -7.02%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.39%EV -1.78%E -0.604%K -0.913%G +0.000%8.0%2026-06-21 13:59
Unibet (NL)2.65I 37.74%NM 34.94%EV -12.83%E -4.84%K -7.78%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.67%EV -7.02%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.39%EV -1.78%E -0.604%K -0.913%G +0.000%8.0%2026-06-21 13:59
Unibet (SE)2.65I 37.74%NM 34.94%EV -12.83%E -4.84%K -7.78%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.67%EV -7.02%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.39%EV -1.78%E -0.604%K -0.913%G +0.000%8.0%2026-06-21 14:00
betPARX2.65I 37.74%NM 34.94%EV -12.83%E -4.84%K -7.78%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.67%EV -7.02%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.39%EV -1.78%E -0.604%K -0.913%G +0.000%8.0%2026-06-21 13:59
ATG (SE)2.65I 37.74%NM 34.94%EV -12.83%E -4.84%K -7.78%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.67%EV -7.02%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.39%EV -1.78%E -0.604%K -0.913%G +0.000%8.0%2026-06-21 13:59
Svenska Spel2.65I 37.74%NM 34.94%EV -12.83%E -4.84%K -7.78%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.67%EV -7.02%E -2.55%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.39%EV -1.78%E -0.604%K -0.913%G +0.000%8.0%2026-06-21 13:59
Ladbrokes (AU)2.63I 38.02%NM 34.02%EV -13.49%E -5.13%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.02%EV -11.07%E -4.21%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.96%EV -6.78%E -2.42%K -3.76%G +0.000%11.8%2026-06-21 13:59
Neds2.63I 38.02%NM 34.02%EV -13.49%E -5.13%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.02%EV -11.07%E -4.21%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.96%EV -6.78%E -2.42%K -3.76%G +0.000%11.8%2026-06-21 13:59
Coral2.62I 38.17%NM 34.06%EV -13.82%E -5.27%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.06%EV -11.41%E -4.36%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.87%EV -6.78%E -2.42%K -3.76%G +0.000%12.1%2026-06-21 13:59
Ladbrokes (UK)2.62I 38.17%NM 34.06%EV -13.82%E -5.27%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.06%EV -11.41%E -4.36%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.87%EV -6.78%E -2.42%K -3.76%G +0.000%12.1%2026-06-21 14:00
BoyleSports2.62I 38.17%NM 33.33%EV -13.82%E -5.27%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.92%EV -15.47%E -6.19%K -10.31%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.75%EV -8.44%E -3.07%K -4.82%G +0.000%14.5%2026-06-21 13:59
Grosvenor2.55I 39.22%NM 34.81%EV -16.12%E -6.32%K -10.40%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.49%EV -10.40%E -3.92%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.70%EV -6.78%E -2.42%K -3.76%G +0.000%12.7%2026-06-21 13:59
LeoVegas (SE)2.55I 39.22%NM 34.72%EV -16.12%E -6.32%K -10.40%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.66%EV -11.07%E -4.21%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.62%EV -6.78%E -2.42%K -3.76%G +0.000%13.0%2026-06-21 13:59
TABtouch2.55I 39.22%NM 34.72%EV -16.12%E -6.32%K -10.40%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.66%EV -11.07%E -4.21%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.62%EV -6.78%E -2.42%K -3.76%G +0.000%13.0%2026-06-21 14:00
LiveScore Bet2.50I 40.00%NM 34.84%EV -17.77%E -7.11%K -11.84%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.50%EV -12.09%E -4.65%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.67%EV -8.44%E -3.07%K -4.82%G +0.000%14.8%2026-06-21 14:00
Virgin Bet2.50I 40.00%NM 34.84%EV -17.77%E -7.11%K -11.84%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.50%EV -12.09%E -4.65%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.67%EV -8.44%E -3.07%K -4.82%G +0.000%14.8%2026-06-21 13:59
LeoVegas2.50I 40.00%NM 34.84%EV -17.77%E -7.11%K -11.84%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.50%EV -12.09%E -4.65%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.67%EV -8.44%E -3.07%K -4.82%G +0.000%14.8%2026-06-21 13:59
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook3.15I 31.75%NM 31.60%2.92I 34.25%NM 34.08%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.32%0.5%2026-06-21 13:59
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.99%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.99%0.8%2026-06-21 14:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.76%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.22%0.8%2026-06-21 14:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.76%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.22%0.8%2026-06-21 14:00
Smarkets3.10I 32.26%NM 31.94%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.91%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.15%1.0%2026-06-21 14:00