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Athletic Club (MG) v Ponte Preta
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Athletic Club (MG) (Local)
Prediction 44.72%2.24fair odd
EV -3.41%
Edge -1.58%
Kelly -2.94%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.16
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.34%44.71%44.74%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.902.052.052.1652.63%48.80%48.78%46.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Ponte Preta (Visit)
Prediction 25.48%3.92fair odd
EV -0.611%
Edge -0.157%
Kelly -0.211%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.20%25.45%25.45%27.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.653.653.9030.30%27.37%27.40%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 29.80%3.36fair odd
EV -3.16%
Edge -0.971%
Kelly -1.40%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.67%29.83%29.81%31.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.053.103.2536.36%32.81%32.26%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Athletic Club (MG) (Local): 44.72%; Ponte Preta (Visit): 25.48%; Draw: 29.80%. For Ponte Preta (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.92. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.90, with an expected value of -0.611%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (43 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.51%EV -3.41%E -1.58%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.97%EV -1.88%E -0.490%K -0.661%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.52%EV -6.14%E -1.95%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-22 20:59 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 42.34%EV -4.31%E -2.01%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.46%EV -15.90%E -4.82%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -10.60%E -3.53%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-03-22 21:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 42.34%EV -4.31%E -2.01%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.46%EV -15.90%E -4.82%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -10.60%E -3.53%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-03-22 21:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.54%EV -6.09%E -2.90%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -5.71%E -1.54%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.17%EV -7.63%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-22 20:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -6.09%E -2.90%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -8.26%E -2.29%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.63%EV -6.14%E -1.95%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-22 20:58 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -6.09%E -2.90%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -10.80%E -3.09%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -7.63%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-22 21:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -6.09%E -2.90%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -10.80%E -3.09%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -7.63%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-22 20:59 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.34%EV -6.09%E -2.90%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -8.26%E -2.29%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.38%EV -13.58%E -4.68%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-22 20:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.34%EV -6.09%E -2.90%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -8.26%E -2.29%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.38%EV -13.58%E -4.68%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-22 21:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.34%EV -6.09%E -2.90%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -8.26%E -2.29%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.38%EV -13.58%E -4.68%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-22 20:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.34%EV -6.09%E -2.90%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -8.26%E -2.29%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.38%EV -13.58%E -4.68%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-22 20:59 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.47%EV -6.99%E -3.36%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -8.26%E -2.29%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.84%EV -7.63%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-22 20:59 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.19%EV -6.99%E -3.36%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.18%EV -6.98%E -1.91%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.64%EV -10.60%E -3.53%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-22 20:58 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.42%EV -6.99%E -3.36%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.44%EV -9.53%E -2.68%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.14%EV -13.58%E -4.68%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-03-22 20:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.95%EV -8.33%E -4.06%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.15%EV -0.611%E -0.157%K -0.211%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.90%EV -6.14%E -1.95%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-22 20:59 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.95%EV -8.33%E -4.06%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.15%EV -0.611%E -0.157%K -0.211%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.90%EV -6.14%E -1.95%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-22 20:59 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.95%EV -8.33%E -4.06%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.15%EV -0.611%E -0.157%K -0.211%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.90%EV -6.14%E -1.95%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-22 21:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.95%EV -8.33%E -4.06%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.15%EV -0.611%E -0.157%K -0.211%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.90%EV -6.14%E -1.95%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-22 21:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.95%EV -8.33%E -4.06%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.15%EV -0.611%E -0.157%K -0.211%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.90%EV -6.14%E -1.95%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-22 21:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.95%EV -8.33%E -4.06%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.15%EV -0.611%E -0.157%K -0.211%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.90%EV -6.14%E -1.95%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-22 21:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.95%EV -8.33%E -4.06%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.15%EV -0.611%E -0.157%K -0.211%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.90%EV -6.14%E -1.95%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-22 21:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.45%EV -8.33%E -4.06%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -8.26%E -2.29%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.67%EV -3.16%E -0.971%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-22 21:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.41%EV -8.33%E -4.06%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.50%EV -6.98%E -1.91%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -4.65%E -1.45%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-22 21:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.25%EV -8.33%E -4.06%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -8.26%E -2.29%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -4.65%E -1.45%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-22 20:59 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.14%EV -8.33%E -4.06%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.01%EV -5.71%E -1.54%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.85%EV -7.63%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-22 20:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.99%EV -8.33%E -4.06%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.27%EV -6.98%E -1.91%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -7.63%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-22 20:59 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.99%EV -8.33%E -4.06%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.27%EV -6.98%E -1.91%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -7.63%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-22 20:59 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.77%EV -8.33%E -4.06%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.14%EV -6.98%E -1.91%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -9.11%E -2.99%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-22 21:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.29%EV -8.33%E -4.06%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.10%EV -13.35%E -3.93%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.60%EV -13.58%E -4.68%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-03-22 20:59 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.29%EV -8.33%E -4.06%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.10%EV -13.35%E -3.93%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.60%EV -13.58%E -4.68%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-03-22 21:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.29%EV -8.33%E -4.06%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.10%EV -13.35%E -3.93%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.60%EV -13.58%E -4.68%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-03-22 21:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.29%EV -8.33%E -4.06%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.10%EV -13.35%E -3.93%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.60%EV -13.58%E -4.68%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-03-22 20:59 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.71%EV -8.78%E -4.30%K -8.44%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.22%EV -1.88%E -0.490%K -0.661%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -7.63%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-22 20:53 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.83%EV -10.57%E -5.28%K -10.57%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -3.16%E -0.831%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.05%EV -9.11%E -2.99%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-22 21:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.83%EV -10.57%E -5.28%K -10.57%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -3.16%E -0.831%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.05%EV -9.11%E -2.99%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-22 21:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -10.57%E -5.28%K -10.57%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -10.80%E -3.09%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -7.63%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-03-22 21:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 43.19%EV -10.57%E -5.28%K -10.57%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.40%EV -13.35%E -3.93%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.41%EV -18.05%E -6.57%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 15.8% | 2026-03-22 20:59 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 46.06%EV -11.91%E -6.04%K -12.28%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.20%EV -4.43%E -1.18%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.75%EV -9.11%E -2.99%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-22 21:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 45.96%EV -12.35%E -6.30%K -12.87%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.02%EV -4.43%E -1.18%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.02%EV -10.60%E -3.53%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-03-22 21:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 45.96%EV -12.35%E -6.30%K -12.87%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.02%EV -4.43%E -1.18%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.02%EV -10.60%E -3.53%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-03-22 21:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.08%EV -12.80%E -6.56%K -13.48%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.96%EV -4.43%E -1.18%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -10.60%E -3.53%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-03-22 21:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.31%EV -12.80%E -6.56%K -13.48%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.24%EV -10.80%E -3.09%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -10.60%E -3.53%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-03-22 21:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 47.62%EV -15.04%E -7.91%K -16.71%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.20%EV -0.611%E -0.157%K -0.211%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.18%EV -7.63%E -2.46%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-03-22 20:58 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.99% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.83% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.18% | 2.0% | 2026-03-22 21:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.78% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.71% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.51% | 2.4% | 2026-03-22 21:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.16I 46.30%NM 45.01% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.61% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.38% | 2.9% | 2026-03-22 21:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.42% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.83% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.74% | 3.3% | 2026-03-22 21:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.65% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.73% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.62% | 3.7% | 2026-03-22 21:00 |