Language:English
Athletic Club (MG) v Fortaleza
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Athletic Club (MG) (Local)
Prediction 35.83%2.79fair odd
EV -1.48%
Edge -0.537%
Kelly -0.844%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.00%35.61%35.92%36.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.602.602.7541.67%38.41%38.46%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Fortaleza (Visit)
Prediction 32.15%3.11fair odd
EV -3.55%
Edge -1.18%
Kelly -1.78%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.43%32.44%32.02%34.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.622.822.803.0038.17%35.48%35.71%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 32.02%3.12fair odd
EV -2.33%
Edge -0.763%
Kelly -1.14%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.05
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.80%31.95%32.06%33.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.632.882.883.0538.02%34.70%34.72%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Athletic Club (MG) (Local): 35.83%; Fortaleza (Visit): 32.15%; Draw: 32.02%. For Athletic Club (MG) (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.79. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.75, with an expected value of -1.48%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.00%EV -1.48%E -0.537%K -0.844%G +0.000% | 2.77I 36.10%NM 33.76%EV -10.94%E -3.95%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -7.13%E -2.46%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-30 20:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.91%EV -3.27%E -1.21%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.67%EV -9.98%E -3.56%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.42%EV -3.93%E -1.31%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-30 21:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.91%EV -3.27%E -1.21%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.67%EV -9.98%E -3.56%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.42%EV -3.93%E -1.31%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-30 21:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.91%EV -3.27%E -1.21%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.67%EV -9.98%E -3.56%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.42%EV -3.93%E -1.31%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-30 21:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.91%EV -3.27%E -1.21%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.67%EV -9.98%E -3.56%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.42%EV -3.93%E -1.31%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-30 21:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.91%EV -3.27%E -1.21%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.67%EV -9.98%E -3.56%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.42%EV -3.93%E -1.31%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-30 21:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.91%EV -3.27%E -1.21%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.67%EV -9.98%E -3.56%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.42%EV -3.93%E -1.31%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-30 21:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.91%EV -3.27%E -1.21%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.67%EV -9.98%E -3.56%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.42%EV -3.93%E -1.31%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-30 21:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -3.27%E -1.21%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.07%EV -11.59%E -4.21%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -3.93%E -1.31%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-30 20:52 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -3.27%E -1.21%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.07%EV -11.59%E -4.21%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -3.93%E -1.31%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-30 20:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.68I 37.31%NM 35.92%EV -3.98%E -1.49%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 32.52%EV -4.84%E -1.63%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.56%EV -2.33%E -0.763%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-30 20:59 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.54%EV -5.06%E -1.91%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.90%EV -13.20%E -4.89%K -7.76%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.56%EV -7.13%E -2.46%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-30 20:59 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.13%EV -5.06%E -1.91%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.13%EV -14.80%E -5.59%K -8.97%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.74%EV -8.73%E -3.06%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-05-30 21:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.11%EV -5.78%E -2.20%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.58%EV -11.59%E -4.21%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.30%EV -5.53%E -1.87%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-30 21:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.01%EV -6.13%E -2.34%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.45%EV -3.55%E -1.18%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.54%EV -7.13%E -2.46%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-30 21:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.01%EV -6.13%E -2.34%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.45%EV -3.55%E -1.18%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.54%EV -7.13%E -2.46%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-30 21:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.55%EV -6.13%E -2.34%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -6.77%E -2.33%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.34%EV -7.77%E -2.70%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-30 21:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.51%EV -6.13%E -2.34%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -6.77%E -2.33%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.41%EV -8.09%E -2.82%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-30 21:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.94%EV -6.13%E -2.34%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.78%EV -7.41%E -2.57%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -11.94%E -4.34%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-30 20:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.94%EV -6.13%E -2.34%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.78%EV -7.41%E -2.57%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -11.94%E -4.34%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-30 20:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.94%EV -6.13%E -2.34%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.78%EV -7.41%E -2.57%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -11.94%E -4.34%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-30 20:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -6.13%E -2.34%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -6.77%E -2.33%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.77%EV -13.54%E -5.01%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-30 21:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -6.85%E -2.63%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 31.86%EV -4.84%E -1.63%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 31.86%EV -5.21%E -1.76%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-30 21:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.00%EV -6.85%E -2.63%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.73%EV -5.16%E -1.75%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.27%EV -7.13%E -2.46%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-30 21:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -6.85%E -2.63%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -5.16%E -1.75%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.66%EV -8.73%E -3.06%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-30 21:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.19%EV -6.85%E -2.63%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.27%EV -11.59%E -4.21%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.55%EV -7.13%E -2.46%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-30 21:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.97%EV -6.85%E -2.63%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.68%EV -13.20%E -4.89%K -7.76%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.35%EV -7.13%E -2.46%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-30 21:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.56%EV -6.85%E -2.63%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.91%EV -14.80%E -5.59%K -8.97%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.53%EV -8.73%E -3.06%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-05-30 20:58 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.54%EV -6.85%E -2.63%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.28%EV -15.77%E -6.02%K -9.73%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.18%EV -7.77%E -2.70%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-05-30 20:59 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.58I 38.76%NM 35.98%EV -7.57%E -2.93%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 31.79%EV -6.12%E -2.10%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.23%EV -7.77%E -2.70%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-30 20:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.58I 38.76%NM 35.98%EV -7.57%E -2.93%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 31.79%EV -6.12%E -2.10%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.23%EV -7.77%E -2.70%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-30 20:59 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.57I 38.91%NM 35.90%EV -7.93%E -3.08%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 31.49%EV -5.80%E -1.98%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 2.83I 35.34%NM 32.60%EV -9.37%E -3.31%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-30 20:59 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.37%EV -8.64%E -3.39%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.43%EV -5.16%E -1.75%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.20%EV -7.77%E -2.70%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-30 20:58 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.05%EV -8.64%E -3.39%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -6.77%E -2.33%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.25%EV -8.73%E -3.06%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-30 20:59 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.84%EV -8.64%E -3.39%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.64%EV -9.98%E -3.56%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.52%EV -7.13%E -2.46%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-30 21:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.44%EV -8.64%E -3.39%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -11.59%E -4.21%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.71%EV -8.73%E -3.06%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-05-30 20:59 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.34%EV -8.64%E -3.39%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.37%EV -13.20%E -4.89%K -7.76%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.29%EV -7.77%E -2.70%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-05-30 21:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.34%EV -8.64%E -3.39%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.37%EV -13.20%E -4.89%K -7.76%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.29%EV -7.77%E -2.70%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-05-30 21:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.31%EV -10.43%E -4.17%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.85%EV -8.37%E -2.94%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.85%EV -8.73%E -3.06%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-30 20:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.90%EV -10.43%E -4.17%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.05%EV -9.98%E -3.56%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.05%EV -10.33%E -3.69%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-05-30 21:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.90%EV -10.43%E -4.17%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.05%EV -9.98%E -3.56%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.05%EV -10.33%E -3.69%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-05-30 21:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.90%EV -10.43%E -4.17%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.05%EV -9.98%E -3.56%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.05%EV -10.33%E -3.69%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-05-30 21:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.90%EV -10.43%E -4.17%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.05%EV -9.98%E -3.56%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.05%EV -10.33%E -3.69%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-05-30 20:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.90%EV -10.43%E -4.17%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.05%EV -9.98%E -3.56%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.05%EV -10.33%E -3.69%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-05-30 20:59 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 34.47%EV -10.43%E -4.17%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 32.77%EV -15.45%E -5.87%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 32.77%EV -15.78%E -6.00%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 16.0% | 2026-05-30 21:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 36.95%EV -14.02%E -5.84%K -10.01%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.25%EV -11.59%E -4.21%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.80%EV -7.77%E -2.70%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-05-30 20:58 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.76I 36.23%NM 35.78% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.85% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.37% | 1.3% | 2026-05-30 21:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.76I 36.23%NM 35.78% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.85% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.37% | 1.3% | 2026-05-30 21:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.76I 36.23%NM 35.78% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.85% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.37% | 1.3% | 2026-05-30 21:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.11% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.68% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.20% | 1.8% | 2026-05-30 21:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.74I 36.50%NM 35.57% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.95% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.48% | 2.6% | 2026-05-30 21:00 |