Language:English
América Mineiro v São Bernardo
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
América Mineiro (Local)
Prediction 31.94%3.13fair odd
EV -3.53%
Edge -1.17%
Kelly -1.75%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.02
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.13%32.06%31.91%34.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.632.832.853.0238.02%35.29%35.09%33.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
São Bernardo (Visit)
Prediction 38.65%2.59fair odd
EV +0.877%
Edge +0.336%
Kelly +0.545%
Growth +0.005%
assuming max odds 2.61
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.83%38.57%38.68%39.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.402.402.6144.44%41.59%41.67%38.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 29.41%3.40fair odd
EV -3.55%
Edge -1.08%
Kelly -1.56%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.28
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.46%29.37%29.41%30.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.113.103.2833.33%32.12%32.26%30.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: América Mineiro (Local): 31.94%; São Bernardo (Visit): 38.65%; Draw: 29.41%. For São Bernardo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.59. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.61, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.877%.
Sportsbook Odds (45 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.01%EV -12.15%E -4.42%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 2.61I 38.31%NM 35.83%EV +0.877%E +0.336%K +0.545%G +0.005% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.17%EV -8.84%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-14 22:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -10.56%E -3.77%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV -3.37%E -1.35%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -5.90%E -1.84%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-14 22:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -10.56%E -3.77%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV -3.37%E -1.35%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -5.90%E -1.84%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-14 22:25 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -10.56%E -3.77%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV -3.37%E -1.35%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -5.90%E -1.84%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-14 22:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -10.56%E -3.77%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV -3.37%E -1.35%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -5.90%E -1.84%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-14 22:25 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -10.56%E -3.77%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV -3.37%E -1.35%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -5.90%E -1.84%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-14 22:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -10.56%E -3.77%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV -3.37%E -1.35%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -5.90%E -1.84%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-14 22:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -10.56%E -3.77%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV -3.37%E -1.35%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -5.90%E -1.84%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-14 22:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.02I 33.11%NM 31.86%EV -3.53%E -1.17%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.80%EV -4.15%E -1.67%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 3.28I 30.49%NM 29.34%EV -3.55%E -1.08%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-14 22:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.79%EV -13.75%E -5.09%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 36.78%EV -4.15%E -1.67%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -8.84%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-14 22:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.14%EV -5.76%E -1.95%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.69%EV -5.31%E -2.17%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.17%EV -4.43%E -1.36%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-14 22:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.79%EV -15.35%E -5.79%K -9.30%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 36.85%EV -6.08%E -2.50%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.36%EV -10.31%E -3.38%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-14 22:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.79%EV -15.35%E -5.79%K -9.30%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 36.85%EV -6.08%E -2.50%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.36%EV -10.31%E -3.38%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-14 22:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.79%EV -15.35%E -5.79%K -9.30%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 36.85%EV -6.08%E -2.50%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.36%EV -10.31%E -3.38%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-14 22:10 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.62%EV -4.81%E -1.61%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 38.94%EV -6.47%E -2.67%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -5.90%E -1.84%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-14 22:15 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.62%EV -4.81%E -1.61%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 38.94%EV -6.47%E -2.67%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -5.90%E -1.84%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-14 22:15 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.62%EV -4.81%E -1.61%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 38.94%EV -6.47%E -2.67%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -5.90%E -1.84%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-14 22:15 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.86I 34.97%NM 32.21%EV -8.64%E -3.02%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 38.07%EV -6.47%E -2.67%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -8.84%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-14 22:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -7.36%E -2.54%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.97%EV -7.24%E -3.02%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -4.43%E -1.36%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-14 22:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.44%EV -5.76%E -1.95%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.64%EV -7.24%E -3.02%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.92%EV -8.84%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-14 22:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.44%EV -5.76%E -1.95%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.64%EV -7.24%E -3.02%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.92%EV -8.84%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-14 22:09 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -7.36%E -2.54%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -7.24%E -3.02%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -8.84%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-14 22:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.34%EV -8.96%E -3.14%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.40%EV -7.24%E -3.02%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.26%EV -7.37%E -2.34%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-14 22:25 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -10.56%E -3.77%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.36%EV -7.24%E -3.02%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -5.90%E -1.84%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-14 21:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -7.36%E -2.54%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.25%EV -7.24%E -3.02%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.10%EV -10.31%E -3.38%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-14 22:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -7.36%E -2.54%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.25%EV -7.24%E -3.02%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.10%EV -10.31%E -3.38%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-14 22:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -7.36%E -2.54%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -7.24%E -3.02%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -11.78%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-14 22:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -7.36%E -2.54%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -7.24%E -3.02%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -11.78%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-14 22:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -7.36%E -2.54%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -7.24%E -3.02%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -11.78%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-14 22:01 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -7.36%E -2.54%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -7.24%E -3.02%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -11.78%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-14 22:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.47%EV -15.35%E -5.79%K -9.30%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -7.24%E -3.02%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.57%EV -11.78%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-09-14 22:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 33.64%EV -15.99%E -6.08%K -9.81%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 36.87%EV -7.24%E -3.02%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.49%EV -11.78%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-09-14 22:25 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.14%EV -8.96%E -3.14%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 2.39I 41.84%NM 38.32%EV -7.63%E -3.19%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.54%EV -8.84%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-14 22:15 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.87%EV -12.15%E -4.42%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.98%EV -8.01%E -3.37%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.16%EV -8.84%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-14 21:36 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.61%EV -10.56%E -3.77%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.86%EV -9.17%E -3.90%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.53%EV -5.90%E -1.84%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-14 21:36 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.62%EV -8.96%E -3.14%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.35%EV -9.17%E -3.90%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.04%EV -11.78%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-14 22:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.95%EV -8.96%E -3.14%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.59%EV -11.10%E -4.83%K -8.54%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -5.90%E -1.84%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-14 21:35 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.66%EV -8.96%E -3.14%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -11.10%E -4.83%K -8.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -8.84%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-09-14 21:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -10.56%E -3.77%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.01%EV -11.10%E -4.83%K -8.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.94%EV -8.84%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-14 21:36 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -10.56%E -3.77%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.01%EV -11.10%E -4.83%K -8.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.94%EV -8.84%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-14 21:34 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -10.56%E -3.77%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.01%EV -11.10%E -4.83%K -8.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.94%EV -8.84%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-14 21:35 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -10.56%E -3.77%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.01%EV -11.10%E -4.83%K -8.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.94%EV -8.84%E -2.85%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-14 21:35 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -8.00%E -2.78%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.98%EV -11.10%E -4.83%K -8.54%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -11.78%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-14 21:36 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -8.00%E -2.78%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.98%EV -11.10%E -4.83%K -8.54%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -11.78%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-14 22:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.47%EV -10.56%E -3.77%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.16%EV -13.04%E -5.79%K -10.43%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.37%EV -11.78%E -3.93%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-09-14 21:35 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.54% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.81% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.66% | 0.7% | 2026-09-14 22:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.40% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.63% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.97% | 1.1% | 2026-09-14 22:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.40% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.63% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.97% | 1.1% | 2026-09-14 22:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.30% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 38.82% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.88% | 1.4% | 2026-09-14 22:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.74% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.44% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.82% | 1.6% | 2026-09-14 22:25 |