Language:English
Palmeiras v Grêmio
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Palmeiras (Local)
Prediction 60.79%1.64fair odd
EV -2.73%
Edge -1.71%
Kelly -4.55%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.43%60.78%60.86%62.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.531.531.6069.44%65.57%65.36%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Grêmio (Visit)
Prediction 16.56%6.04fair odd
EV +6.78%
Edge +1.05%
Kelly +1.24%
Growth +0.084%
assuming max odds 6.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.78%16.49%16.53%18.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.805.705.756.4520.83%17.55%17.39%15.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 22.65%4.42fair odd
EV -0.340%
Edge -0.077%
Kelly -0.100%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.47%22.73%22.61%24.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.404.064.104.4029.41%24.60%24.39%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Palmeiras (Local): 60.79%; Grêmio (Visit): 16.56%; Draw: 22.65%. For Grêmio (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.04. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.45, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.78%.
Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.09%EV -5.16%E -3.31%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 6.45I 15.50%NM 14.78%EV +6.78%E +1.05%K +1.24%G +0.084% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.13%EV -10.53%E -2.67%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-03 00:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.09%EV -5.16%E -3.31%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 6.45I 15.50%NM 14.78%EV +6.78%E +1.05%K +1.24%G +0.084% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.13%EV -10.53%E -2.67%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-03 00:10 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 62.64%EV -5.77%E -3.72%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 6.39I 15.65%NM 15.19%EV +5.79%E +0.906%K +1.07%G +0.062% | 4.38I 22.83%NM 22.17%EV -0.793%E -0.181%K -0.235%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-04-03 00:24 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.45%EV -4.55%E -2.90%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 6.15I 16.26%NM 15.69%EV +1.82%E +0.295%K +0.353%G +0.006% | 4.22I 23.70%NM 22.86%EV -4.42%E -1.05%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-04-03 00:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.63%EV -4.55%E -2.90%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.86%EV +0.988%E +0.162%K +0.194%G +0.002% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.50%EV -2.61%E -0.606%K -0.790%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-04-03 00:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.63%EV -4.55%E -2.90%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.86%EV +0.988%E +0.162%K +0.194%G +0.002% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.50%EV -2.61%E -0.606%K -0.790%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-04-03 00:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.42%EV -6.98%E -4.56%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -0.667%E -0.111%K -0.133%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -7.14%E -1.74%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-03 00:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.42%EV -6.98%E -4.56%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -0.667%E -0.111%K -0.133%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -7.14%E -1.74%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-03 00:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.42%EV -6.98%E -4.56%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -0.667%E -0.111%K -0.133%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -7.14%E -1.74%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-03 00:25 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.42%EV -6.98%E -4.56%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -0.667%E -0.111%K -0.133%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -7.14%E -1.74%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-03 00:24 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.42%EV -6.98%E -4.56%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -0.667%E -0.111%K -0.133%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -7.14%E -1.74%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-03 00:25 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.42%EV -6.98%E -4.56%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -0.667%E -0.111%K -0.133%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -7.14%E -1.74%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-03 00:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -6.98%E -4.56%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV -0.667%E -0.111%K -0.133%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -9.40%E -2.35%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-03 00:14 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -8.81%E -5.87%K -17.62%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -0.667%E -0.111%K -0.133%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -4.87%E -1.16%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-03 00:24 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.38%EV -8.20%E -5.43%K -16.08%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -0.667%E -0.111%K -0.133%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -9.40%E -2.35%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-03 00:14 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.18%EV -8.81%E -5.87%K -17.62%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.29%EV -0.667%E -0.111%K -0.133%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -11.67%E -2.99%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-03 00:25 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.02%EV -2.73%E -1.71%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.28%EV -2.32%E -0.394%K -0.474%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.71%EV -8.27%E -2.04%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-02 23:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.40%EV -8.20%E -5.43%K -16.08%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.99%EV -3.98%E -0.686%K -0.829%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -7.14%E -1.74%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-03 00:01 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.56%EV -8.81%E -5.87%K -17.62%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.92%EV -3.98%E -0.686%K -0.829%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.52%EV -7.14%E -1.74%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-03 00:10 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.82%EV -6.98%E -4.56%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 5.79I 17.27%NM 16.34%EV -4.14%E -0.716%K -0.865%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.84%EV -1.93%E -0.445%K -0.578%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-02 23:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.87%EV -5.16%E -3.31%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.52%EV -4.81%E -0.836%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.61%EV -4.87%E -1.16%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-03 00:10 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.54%EV -5.16%E -3.31%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -4.81%E -0.836%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.03%EV -7.14%E -1.74%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-03 00:14 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.52%EV -5.77%E -3.72%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.31%EV -4.81%E -0.836%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.16%EV -8.27%E -2.04%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-03 00:10 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.52%EV -5.77%E -3.72%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.31%EV -4.81%E -0.836%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.16%EV -8.27%E -2.04%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-03 00:14 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.47%EV -8.81%E -5.87%K -17.62%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.04%EV -4.81%E -0.836%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -7.14%E -1.74%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-03 00:10 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 61.45%EV -10.02%E -6.77%K -20.88%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.82%EV -4.81%E -0.836%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -9.40%E -2.35%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-03 00:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 61.45%EV -10.02%E -6.77%K -20.88%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.82%EV -4.81%E -0.836%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -9.40%E -2.35%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-03 00:10 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.00%EV -6.98%E -4.56%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 5.65I 17.70%NM 16.52%EV -6.46%E -1.14%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.49%EV -6.00%E -1.45%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-03 00:10 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.08%EV -5.77%E -3.72%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -7.29%E -1.30%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.02%EV -2.61%E -0.606%K -0.790%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-02 23:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 61.34%EV -11.24%E -7.70%K -24.43%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 15.99%EV -7.29%E -1.30%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.67%EV -10.53%E -2.67%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-04-03 00:24 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 61.34%EV -11.24%E -7.70%K -24.43%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 15.99%EV -7.29%E -1.30%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.67%EV -10.53%E -2.67%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-04-03 00:25 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.35%EV -6.38%E -4.14%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.18%EV -8.95%E -1.63%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.47%EV -0.340%E -0.077%K -0.100%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-03 00:10 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.73%EV -5.77%E -3.72%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV -8.95%E -1.63%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.15%EV -3.74%E -0.880%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-02 23:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.88%EV -6.98%E -4.56%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.94%EV -8.95%E -1.63%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -4.87%E -1.16%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-03 00:09 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.40%EV -6.38%E -4.14%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.91%EV -8.95%E -1.63%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.69%EV -7.14%E -1.74%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-02 23:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.90%EV -5.77%E -3.72%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.88%EV -8.95%E -1.63%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.21%EV -9.40%E -2.35%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-03 00:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.90%EV -5.77%E -3.72%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.88%EV -8.95%E -1.63%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.21%EV -9.40%E -2.35%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-02 23:55 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.56%EV -6.98%E -4.56%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.85%EV -8.95%E -1.63%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.60%EV -7.14%E -1.74%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-02 23:45 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.71%EV -7.59%E -4.99%K -14.60%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.78%EV -8.95%E -1.63%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.51%EV -7.14%E -1.74%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-02 23:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.86%EV -6.98%E -4.56%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.65%EV -8.95%E -1.63%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -11.67%E -2.99%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-03 00:24 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.86%EV -6.98%E -4.56%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.65%EV -8.95%E -1.63%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -11.67%E -2.99%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-03 00:24 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.86%EV -6.98%E -4.56%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.65%EV -8.95%E -1.63%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -11.67%E -2.99%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-03 00:24 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.86%EV -6.98%E -4.56%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.65%EV -8.95%E -1.63%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -11.67%E -2.99%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-03 00:25 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -8.81%E -5.87%K -17.62%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -8.95%E -1.63%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -9.40%E -2.35%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-03 00:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.97%EV -8.81%E -5.87%K -17.62%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.36%EV -8.95%E -1.63%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.67%EV -13.93%E -3.67%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-04-02 23:45 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.78%EV -8.81%E -5.87%K -17.62%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.30%EV -8.95%E -1.63%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.91%EV -15.06%E -4.02%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-04-03 00:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.22%EV -5.77%E -3.72%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.29%EV -10.60%E -1.96%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.49%EV -6.00%E -1.45%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-02 23:44 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.22%EV -5.77%E -3.72%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.29%EV -10.60%E -1.96%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.49%EV -6.00%E -1.45%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-02 23:45 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 60.23%EV -10.02%E -6.77%K -20.88%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.48%EV -15.57%E -3.05%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.29%EV -9.40%E -2.35%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-04-03 00:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 60.17%EV -10.02%E -6.77%K -20.88%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.46%EV -15.57%E -3.05%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 3.98I 25.13%NM 22.37%EV -9.85%E -2.48%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-04-03 00:09 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -8.81%E -5.87%K -17.62%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -17.22%E -3.44%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -4.87%E -1.16%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-04-02 23:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 58.43%EV -12.46%E -8.65%K -28.31%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 16.83%EV -17.22%E -3.44%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 24.75%EV -22.99%E -6.76%K -9.58%G +0.000% | 18.9% | 2026-04-03 00:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 59.58%EV -10.02%E -6.77%K -20.88%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.37%EV -20.53%E -4.28%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.05%EV -9.40%E -2.35%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-04-02 23:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.77% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 14.17% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.06% | 0.8% | 2026-04-03 00:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.77% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 14.17% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.06% | 0.8% | 2026-04-03 00:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.36% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.58% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.06% | 0.9% | 2026-04-03 00:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.51% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.52% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.97% | 1.3% | 2026-04-03 00:25 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.79% | 6.67I 14.99%NM 14.69% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.52% | 2.1% | 2026-04-03 00:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 62.32% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.39% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.29% | 2.2% | 2026-04-03 00:20 |