Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Grêmio v Vasco da Gama

Kickoff: 2026-09-12 19:00 UTC

Final: Grêmio 1–2 Vasco da Gama

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Grêmio (Local)

Prediction 26.93%3.71fair odd
EV +0.454%
Edge +0.122%
Kelly +0.166%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.80%27.09%26.87%30.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.433.503.7333.33%29.12%28.57%26.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Vasco da Gama (Visit)

Prediction 44.09%2.27fair odd
EV -0.791%
Edge -0.352%
Kelly -0.633%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.94%43.91%44.11%45.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.962.102.102.2551.02%47.58%47.62%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.98%3.45fair odd
EV -0.033%
Edge -0.010%
Kelly -0.014%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.63%29.00%29.01%30.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.223.203.4533.33%31.03%31.25%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Grêmio (Local): 26.93%; Vasco da Gama (Visit): 44.09%; Draw: 28.98%. For Grêmio (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.71. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.73, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.454%.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.73I 26.81%NM 25.94%EV +0.454%E +0.122%K +0.166%G +0.001%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.38%EV -3.88%E -1.78%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.68%EV -5.54%E -1.70%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-12 18:45
1xBet🎯3.66I 27.32%NM 26.22%EV -1.43%E -0.391%K -0.538%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 45.05%EV -6.08%E -2.86%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.73%EV -3.22%E -0.964%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-12 18:55
Svenska Spel🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 26.34%EV -1.70%E -0.466%K -0.642%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.79%EV -7.41%E -3.53%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.87%EV -0.033%E -0.010%K -0.014%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-12 18:50
ATG (SE)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 26.34%EV -1.70%E -0.466%K -0.642%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.79%EV -7.41%E -3.53%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.87%EV -0.033%E -0.010%K -0.014%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-12 18:50
BetOnline.ag🎯3.61I 27.70%NM 26.77%EV -2.78%E -0.769%K -1.06%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.94%EV -3.00%E -1.36%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.29%EV -4.38%E -1.33%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-12 18:20
LowVig.ag🎯3.61I 27.70%NM 26.77%EV -2.78%E -0.769%K -1.06%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.94%EV -3.00%E -1.36%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.29%EV -4.38%E -1.33%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-12 18:20
BetAnything🎯3.61I 27.70%NM 26.77%EV -2.78%E -0.769%K -1.06%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.94%EV -3.00%E -1.36%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.29%EV -4.38%E -1.33%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-12 18:20
SportsBet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -3.05%E -0.846%K -1.17%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.07%EV -5.20%E -2.42%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -7.28%E -2.27%K -3.31%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-12 18:30
FanDuel🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -3.05%E -0.846%K -1.17%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -7.41%E -3.53%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -10.17%E -3.28%K -4.85%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-12 18:31
DraftKings🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.55%EV -4.39%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.89%EV -7.41%E -3.53%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.56%EV -4.38%E -1.33%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-12 18:29
Marathon Bet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -4.39%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.41%EV -7.41%E -3.53%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.32%EV -7.86%E -2.47%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 18:54
Betsson🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -4.39%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.88%EV -9.61%E -4.69%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -8.73%E -2.77%K -4.06%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-12 18:46
NordicBet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -4.39%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.88%EV -9.61%E -4.69%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -8.73%E -2.77%K -4.06%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-12 18:50
Coolbet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.26%EV -5.74%E -1.64%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.37%EV -3.00%E -1.36%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.36%EV -5.83%E -1.79%K -2.59%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-12 18:50
Codere (IT)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.99%EV -5.74%E -1.64%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.94%EV -5.20%E -2.42%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -5.83%E -1.79%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-12 18:30
Betway🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -5.74%E -1.64%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.52%EV -7.41%E -3.53%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -5.83%E -1.79%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 18:40
Unibet (NL)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.65%EV -5.74%E -1.64%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.50%EV -9.61%E -4.69%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.85%EV -2.93%E -0.875%K -1.25%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 18:50
Unibet (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.65%EV -5.74%E -1.64%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.50%EV -9.61%E -4.69%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.85%EV -2.93%E -0.875%K -1.25%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 18:50
Casumo🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.65%EV -5.74%E -1.64%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.50%EV -9.61%E -4.69%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.85%EV -2.93%E -0.875%K -1.25%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 18:50
Grosvenor🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.65%EV -5.74%E -1.64%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.50%EV -9.61%E -4.69%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.85%EV -2.93%E -0.875%K -1.25%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 18:50
Unibet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.65%EV -5.74%E -1.64%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.50%EV -9.61%E -4.69%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.85%EV -2.93%E -0.875%K -1.25%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 18:50
betPARX🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.65%EV -5.74%E -1.64%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.50%EV -9.61%E -4.69%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.85%EV -2.93%E -0.875%K -1.25%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 18:51
Fanatics🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -5.74%E -1.64%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -7.41%E -3.53%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -7.28%E -2.27%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-12 18:50
Bovada🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -5.74%E -1.64%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -7.41%E -3.53%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -7.28%E -2.27%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-12 18:55
BetUS🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -5.74%E -1.64%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -7.41%E -3.53%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -7.28%E -2.27%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-12 18:55
PlayUp🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.48%EV -5.74%E -1.64%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.56%EV -8.29%E -3.98%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.96%EV -7.28%E -2.27%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-12 18:46
TAB🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -5.74%E -1.64%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -9.61%E -4.69%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -7.28%E -2.27%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-12 18:55
Paddy Power🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -5.74%E -1.64%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.07%EV -9.61%E -4.69%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.12%EV -13.07%E -4.36%K -6.54%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-12 18:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -5.74%E -1.64%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.07%EV -9.61%E -4.69%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.12%EV -13.07%E -4.36%K -6.54%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-12 18:45
GTbets🎯3.46I 28.90%NM 27.56%EV -6.82%E -1.97%K -2.77%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.54%EV -3.44%E -1.57%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.90%EV -4.38%E -1.33%K -1.90%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-12 18:30
LeoVegas🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.40%EV -7.09%E -2.05%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.96%EV -5.20%E -2.42%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -4.38%E -1.33%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-12 18:46
BetMGM🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -8.43%E -2.48%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -5.20%E -2.42%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -4.38%E -1.33%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-12 18:20
betano_uk🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -8.43%E -2.48%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.41%E -3.53%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -1.48%E -0.436%K -0.618%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-12 18:54
Bet Victor🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -8.43%E -2.48%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.41%E -3.53%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -1.48%E -0.436%K -0.618%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-12 18:53
888sport🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -8.43%E -2.48%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -5.20%E -2.42%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -13.07%E -4.36%K -6.54%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-12 18:25
William Hill🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -8.43%E -2.48%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -5.20%E -2.42%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -13.07%E -4.36%K -6.54%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-12 18:25
888sport (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -8.43%E -2.48%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -5.20%E -2.42%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -13.07%E -4.36%K -6.54%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-12 18:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -8.43%E -2.48%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -5.20%E -2.42%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -13.07%E -4.36%K -6.54%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-12 18:25
BoyleSports🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -8.43%E -2.48%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.17%EV -9.61%E -4.69%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -10.17%E -3.28%K -4.85%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-12 18:25
Sky Bet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -8.43%E -2.48%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -9.61%E -4.69%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -13.07%E -4.36%K -6.54%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-12 18:30
LiveScore Bet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 26.87%EV -9.78%E -2.92%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -11.81%E -5.91%K -11.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -7.28%E -2.27%K -3.31%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-12 18:50
PMU (FR)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 26.87%EV -9.78%E -2.92%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -11.81%E -5.91%K -11.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -7.28%E -2.27%K -3.31%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-12 18:50
Virgin Bet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 26.87%EV -9.78%E -2.92%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -11.81%E -5.91%K -11.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -7.28%E -2.27%K -3.31%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-12 18:50
TABtouch🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 26.87%EV -9.78%E -2.92%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -11.81%E -5.91%K -11.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -7.28%E -2.27%K -3.31%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-12 18:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 26.87%EV -9.78%E -2.92%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -11.81%E -5.91%K -11.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -7.28%E -2.27%K -3.31%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-12 18:50
Tipico (DE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -11.13%E -3.37%K -4.84%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04%EV -5.20%E -2.42%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -7.28%E -2.27%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-12 18:30
Winamax (DE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -11.13%E -3.37%K -4.84%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -9.61%E -4.69%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -5.83%E -1.79%K -2.59%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-12 18:24
Unibet (FR)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.68%EV -11.13%E -3.37%K -4.84%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 44.92%EV -13.58%E -6.93%K -14.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.40%EV -10.17%E -3.28%K -4.85%G +0.000%13.6%2026-09-12 18:31
Winamax (FR)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.35%EV -12.47%E -3.84%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.44%EV -11.81%E -5.91%K -11.81%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.21%EV -8.73%E -2.77%K -4.06%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-12 18:25
Betclic (FR)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 26.92%EV -12.47%E -3.84%K -5.54%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 44.20%EV -12.70%E -6.41%K -12.96%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 28.88%EV -12.20%E -4.03%K -6.01%G +0.000%14.3%2026-09-12 18:39
BetRivers🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.49%EV -13.82%E -4.32%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.01%EV -6.52%E -3.08%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.49%EV -7.28%E -2.27%K -3.31%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-12 18:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -16.51%E -5.33%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -0.791%E -0.352%K -0.633%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -4.38%E -1.33%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 18:46
Bet Right🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -19.21%E -6.40%K -9.60%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.29%EV -0.791%E -0.352%K -0.633%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.73%EV -2.93%E -0.875%K -1.25%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-12 18:50
Betr (AU)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -19.21%E -6.40%K -9.60%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -0.791%E -0.352%K -0.633%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -4.38%E -1.33%K -1.90%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-12 18:46
betfred_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -19.21%E -6.40%K -9.60%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -0.791%E -0.352%K -0.633%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -5.83%E -1.79%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-12 18:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.85I 25.97%NM 25.86%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.85%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.29%0.4%2026-09-12 18:51
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.85I 25.97%NM 25.85%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.44%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.71%0.5%2026-09-12 18:55
Matchbook3.85I 25.97%NM 25.84%2.26I 44.25%NM 44.02%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.14%0.5%2026-09-12 18:55
Smarkets3.80I 26.32%NM 26.10%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.28%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.61%0.8%2026-09-12 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.85I 25.97%NM 25.75%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.66%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.59%0.9%2026-09-12 18:55
Kalshi3.57I 28.01%NM 27.17%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.70%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.13%3.1%2026-09-12 18:31