Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Grêmio v Vasco da Gama

Início: 2026-09-12 19:00 UTC

Final: Grêmio 1–2 Vasco da Gama

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

55 casas de apostas (19 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Grêmio (Local)

Previsão 26.93%3.71odd justa
EV +0.454%
Vantagem +0.122%
Kelly +0.166%
Crescimento +0.001%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.73

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
25.80%27.09%26.87%30.97%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.003.433.503.7333.33%29.12%28.57%26.81%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Vasco da Gama (Visitante)

Previsão 44.09%2.27odd justa
EV -0.791%
Vantagem -0.352%
Kelly -0.633%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.25

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
40.94%43.91%44.11%45.79%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.962.102.102.2551.02%47.58%47.62%44.44%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 28.98%3.45odd justa
EV -0.033%
Vantagem -0.010%
Kelly -0.014%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.45

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
27.63%29.00%29.01%30.51%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.003.223.203.4533.33%31.03%31.25%28.99%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Grêmio (Local): 26.93%; Vasco da Gama (Visitante): 44.09%; Empate: 28.98%. Para Grêmio (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.71. 1 casa de apostas oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 3.73, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +0.454%.

Odds das casas de apostas (55 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
Pinnacle🎯3.73I 26.81%NM 25.94%EV +0.454%E +0.122%K +0.166%G +0.001%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.38%EV -3.88%E -1.78%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.68%EV -5.54%E -1.70%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-12 18:45
1xBet🎯3.66I 27.32%NM 26.22%EV -1.43%E -0.391%K -0.538%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 45.05%EV -6.08%E -2.86%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.73%EV -3.22%E -0.964%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-12 18:55
Svenska Spel🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 26.34%EV -1.70%E -0.466%K -0.642%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.79%EV -7.41%E -3.53%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.87%EV -0.033%E -0.010%K -0.014%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-12 18:50
ATG (SE)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 26.34%EV -1.70%E -0.466%K -0.642%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.79%EV -7.41%E -3.53%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.87%EV -0.033%E -0.010%K -0.014%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-12 18:50
BetOnline.ag🎯3.61I 27.70%NM 26.77%EV -2.78%E -0.769%K -1.06%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.94%EV -3.00%E -1.36%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.29%EV -4.38%E -1.33%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-12 18:20
LowVig.ag🎯3.61I 27.70%NM 26.77%EV -2.78%E -0.769%K -1.06%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.94%EV -3.00%E -1.36%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.29%EV -4.38%E -1.33%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-12 18:20
BetAnything🎯3.61I 27.70%NM 26.77%EV -2.78%E -0.769%K -1.06%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.94%EV -3.00%E -1.36%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.29%EV -4.38%E -1.33%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-12 18:20
SportsBet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -3.05%E -0.846%K -1.17%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.07%EV -5.20%E -2.42%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -7.28%E -2.27%K -3.31%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-12 18:30
FanDuel🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -3.05%E -0.846%K -1.17%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -7.41%E -3.53%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -10.17%E -3.28%K -4.85%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-12 18:31
DraftKings🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.55%EV -4.39%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.89%EV -7.41%E -3.53%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.56%EV -4.38%E -1.33%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-12 18:29
Marathon Bet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -4.39%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.41%EV -7.41%E -3.53%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.32%EV -7.86%E -2.47%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 18:54
Betsson🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -4.39%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.88%EV -9.61%E -4.69%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -8.73%E -2.77%K -4.06%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-12 18:46
NordicBet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -4.39%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.88%EV -9.61%E -4.69%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -8.73%E -2.77%K -4.06%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-12 18:50
Coolbet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.26%EV -5.74%E -1.64%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.37%EV -3.00%E -1.36%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.36%EV -5.83%E -1.79%K -2.59%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-12 18:50
Codere (IT)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.99%EV -5.74%E -1.64%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.94%EV -5.20%E -2.42%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -5.83%E -1.79%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-12 18:30
Betway🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -5.74%E -1.64%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.52%EV -7.41%E -3.53%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -5.83%E -1.79%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 18:40
Unibet (NL)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.65%EV -5.74%E -1.64%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.50%EV -9.61%E -4.69%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.85%EV -2.93%E -0.875%K -1.25%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 18:50
Unibet (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.65%EV -5.74%E -1.64%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.50%EV -9.61%E -4.69%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.85%EV -2.93%E -0.875%K -1.25%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 18:50
Casumo🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.65%EV -5.74%E -1.64%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.50%EV -9.61%E -4.69%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.85%EV -2.93%E -0.875%K -1.25%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 18:50
Grosvenor🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.65%EV -5.74%E -1.64%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.50%EV -9.61%E -4.69%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.85%EV -2.93%E -0.875%K -1.25%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 18:50
Unibet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.65%EV -5.74%E -1.64%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.50%EV -9.61%E -4.69%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.85%EV -2.93%E -0.875%K -1.25%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 18:50
betPARX🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.65%EV -5.74%E -1.64%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.50%EV -9.61%E -4.69%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.85%EV -2.93%E -0.875%K -1.25%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 18:51
Fanatics🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -5.74%E -1.64%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -7.41%E -3.53%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -7.28%E -2.27%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-12 18:50
Bovada🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -5.74%E -1.64%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -7.41%E -3.53%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -7.28%E -2.27%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-12 18:55
BetUS🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -5.74%E -1.64%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -7.41%E -3.53%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -7.28%E -2.27%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-12 18:55
PlayUp🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.48%EV -5.74%E -1.64%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.56%EV -8.29%E -3.98%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.96%EV -7.28%E -2.27%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-12 18:46
TAB🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -5.74%E -1.64%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -9.61%E -4.69%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -7.28%E -2.27%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-12 18:55
Paddy Power🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -5.74%E -1.64%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.07%EV -9.61%E -4.69%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.12%EV -13.07%E -4.36%K -6.54%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-12 18:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -5.74%E -1.64%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.07%EV -9.61%E -4.69%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.12%EV -13.07%E -4.36%K -6.54%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-12 18:45
GTbets🎯3.46I 28.90%NM 27.56%EV -6.82%E -1.97%K -2.77%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.54%EV -3.44%E -1.57%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.90%EV -4.38%E -1.33%K -1.90%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-12 18:30
LeoVegas🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.40%EV -7.09%E -2.05%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.96%EV -5.20%E -2.42%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -4.38%E -1.33%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-12 18:46
BetMGM🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -8.43%E -2.48%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -5.20%E -2.42%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -4.38%E -1.33%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-12 18:20
betano_uk🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -8.43%E -2.48%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.41%E -3.53%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -1.48%E -0.436%K -0.618%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-12 18:54
Bet Victor🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -8.43%E -2.48%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.41%E -3.53%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -1.48%E -0.436%K -0.618%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-12 18:53
888sport🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -8.43%E -2.48%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -5.20%E -2.42%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -13.07%E -4.36%K -6.54%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-12 18:25
William Hill🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -8.43%E -2.48%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -5.20%E -2.42%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -13.07%E -4.36%K -6.54%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-12 18:25
888sport (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -8.43%E -2.48%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -5.20%E -2.42%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -13.07%E -4.36%K -6.54%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-12 18:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -8.43%E -2.48%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -5.20%E -2.42%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -13.07%E -4.36%K -6.54%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-12 18:25
BoyleSports🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -8.43%E -2.48%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.17%EV -9.61%E -4.69%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -10.17%E -3.28%K -4.85%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-12 18:25
Sky Bet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -8.43%E -2.48%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -9.61%E -4.69%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -13.07%E -4.36%K -6.54%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-12 18:30
LiveScore Bet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 26.87%EV -9.78%E -2.92%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -11.81%E -5.91%K -11.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -7.28%E -2.27%K -3.31%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-12 18:50
PMU (FR)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 26.87%EV -9.78%E -2.92%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -11.81%E -5.91%K -11.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -7.28%E -2.27%K -3.31%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-12 18:50
Virgin Bet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 26.87%EV -9.78%E -2.92%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -11.81%E -5.91%K -11.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -7.28%E -2.27%K -3.31%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-12 18:50
TABtouch🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 26.87%EV -9.78%E -2.92%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -11.81%E -5.91%K -11.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -7.28%E -2.27%K -3.31%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-12 18:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 26.87%EV -9.78%E -2.92%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -11.81%E -5.91%K -11.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -7.28%E -2.27%K -3.31%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-12 18:50
Tipico (DE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -11.13%E -3.37%K -4.84%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04%EV -5.20%E -2.42%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -7.28%E -2.27%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-12 18:30
Winamax (DE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -11.13%E -3.37%K -4.84%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -9.61%E -4.69%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -5.83%E -1.79%K -2.59%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-12 18:24
Unibet (FR)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.68%EV -11.13%E -3.37%K -4.84%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 44.92%EV -13.58%E -6.93%K -14.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.40%EV -10.17%E -3.28%K -4.85%G +0.000%13.6%2026-09-12 18:31
Winamax (FR)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.35%EV -12.47%E -3.84%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.44%EV -11.81%E -5.91%K -11.81%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.21%EV -8.73%E -2.77%K -4.06%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-12 18:25
Betclic (FR)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 26.92%EV -12.47%E -3.84%K -5.54%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 44.20%EV -12.70%E -6.41%K -12.96%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 28.88%EV -12.20%E -4.03%K -6.01%G +0.000%14.3%2026-09-12 18:39
BetRivers🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.49%EV -13.82%E -4.32%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.01%EV -6.52%E -3.08%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.49%EV -7.28%E -2.27%K -3.31%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-12 18:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -16.51%E -5.33%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -0.791%E -0.352%K -0.633%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -4.38%E -1.33%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 18:46
Bet Right🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -19.21%E -6.40%K -9.60%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.29%EV -0.791%E -0.352%K -0.633%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.73%EV -2.93%E -0.875%K -1.25%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-12 18:50
Betr (AU)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -19.21%E -6.40%K -9.60%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -0.791%E -0.352%K -0.633%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -4.38%E -1.33%K -1.90%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-12 18:46
betfred_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -19.21%E -6.40%K -9.60%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -0.791%E -0.352%K -0.633%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -5.83%E -1.79%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-12 18:50
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.85I 25.97%NM 25.86%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.85%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.29%0.4%2026-09-12 18:51
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.85I 25.97%NM 25.85%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.44%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.71%0.5%2026-09-12 18:55
Matchbook◎3.85I 25.97%NM 25.84%2.26I 44.25%NM 44.02%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.14%0.5%2026-09-12 18:55
Smarkets◎3.80I 26.32%NM 26.10%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.28%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.61%0.8%2026-09-12 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.85I 25.97%NM 25.75%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.66%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.59%0.9%2026-09-12 18:55
Kalshi◎3.57I 28.01%NM 27.17%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.70%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.13%3.1%2026-09-12 18:31