Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cruzeiro v Grêmio

Kickoff: 2026-04-18 23:30 UTC

Final: Cruzeiro 2–0 Grêmio

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cruzeiro (Local)

Prediction 55.91%1.79fair odd
EV -2.16%
Edge -1.24%
Kelly -2.88%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.12%55.92%55.80%57.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.591.671.671.7562.89%59.95%59.88%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Grêmio (Visit)

Prediction 18.58%5.38fair odd
EV +1.08%
Edge +0.198%
Kelly +0.243%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 5.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.71%18.58%18.65%19.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.504.975.005.4422.22%20.11%20.00%18.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.51%3.92fair odd
EV -1.01%
Edge -0.261%
Kelly -0.352%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.53%25.51%25.55%27.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.643.653.8832.26%27.47%27.40%25.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cruzeiro (Local): 55.91%; Grêmio (Visit): 18.58%; Draw: 25.51%. For Grêmio (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.38. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.44, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.08%.

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.01%EV -5.52%E -3.26%K -8.00%G +0.000%5.44I 18.38%NM 17.71%EV +1.08%E +0.198%K +0.243%G +0.003%3.81I 26.25%NM 25.29%EV -2.80%E -0.734%K -0.996%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-18 23:10
LowVig.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.92%EV -6.64%E -3.97%K -9.90%G +0.000%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.07%EV -2.26%E -0.431%K -0.532%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.01%EV -3.05%E -0.804%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-13 06:44
BetOnline.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.92%EV -6.64%E -3.97%K -9.90%G +0.000%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.07%EV -2.26%E -0.431%K -0.532%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.01%EV -3.05%E -0.804%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-13 06:44
BetAnything🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.92%EV -6.64%E -3.97%K -9.90%G +0.000%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.07%EV -2.26%E -0.431%K -0.532%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.01%EV -3.05%E -0.804%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-16 15:30
Fanatics🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.60%EV -5.52%E -3.26%K -8.00%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV -2.45%E -0.467%K -0.577%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.17%EV -3.05%E -0.804%K -1.09%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-18 22:00
Coolbet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.56%EV -6.08%E -3.62%K -8.94%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV -2.45%E -0.467%K -0.577%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.34%EV -4.33%E -1.15%K -1.57%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-18 21:55
Bet Victor🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.51%EV -6.64%E -3.97%K -9.90%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.98%EV -2.45%E -0.467%K -0.577%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.51%EV -5.60%E -1.51%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-18 23:20
Bet Right🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.27%EV -7.19%E -4.33%K -10.90%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.79%EV -2.45%E -0.467%K -0.577%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -8.16%E -2.27%K -3.14%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-18 21:55
Codere (IT)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.93%EV -5.52%E -3.26%K -8.00%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.18%EV -3.38%E -0.650%K -0.805%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.90%EV -6.88%E -1.89%K -2.60%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-18 22:00
Bovada🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.42%EV -6.64%E -3.97%K -9.90%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.12%EV -3.38%E -0.650%K -0.805%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.46%EV -5.60%E -1.51%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-18 23:05
BetUS🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.42%EV -6.64%E -3.97%K -9.90%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.12%EV -3.38%E -0.650%K -0.805%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.46%EV -5.60%E -1.51%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-18 23:09
FanDuel🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.54%EV -9.43%E -5.82%K -15.21%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.93%EV -3.38%E -0.650%K -0.805%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -3.05%E -0.804%K -1.09%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-18 23:25
1xBet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 56.04%EV -3.28%E -1.90%K -4.49%G +0.000%5.11I 19.57%NM 18.97%EV -5.05%E -0.989%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.99%EV -1.01%E -0.261%K -0.352%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-18 23:20
Svenska Spel🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.44%EV -2.16%E -1.24%K -2.88%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.02%EV -5.24%E -1.03%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.53%EV -3.05%E -0.804%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-18 23:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.44%EV -2.16%E -1.24%K -2.88%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.02%EV -5.24%E -1.03%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.53%EV -3.05%E -0.804%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-18 23:25
BetMGM🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.09%EV -5.52%E -3.26%K -8.00%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -7.10%E -1.42%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.95%EV -3.05%E -0.804%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-18 21:55
Casumo🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.57%EV -4.96%E -2.92%K -7.08%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.89%EV -7.10%E -1.42%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.53%EV -5.60%E -1.51%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-18 23:23
Grosvenor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.57%EV -4.96%E -2.92%K -7.08%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.89%EV -7.10%E -1.42%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.53%EV -5.60%E -1.51%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-18 23:23
Unibet (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.57%EV -4.96%E -2.92%K -7.08%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.89%EV -7.10%E -1.42%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.53%EV -5.60%E -1.51%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-18 23:23
betPARX🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.57%EV -4.96%E -2.92%K -7.08%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.89%EV -7.10%E -1.42%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.53%EV -5.60%E -1.51%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-18 23:25
Unibet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.57%EV -4.96%E -2.92%K -7.08%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.89%EV -7.10%E -1.42%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.53%EV -5.60%E -1.51%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-18 23:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.57%EV -4.96%E -2.92%K -7.08%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.89%EV -7.10%E -1.42%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.53%EV -5.60%E -1.51%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-18 23:23
DraftKings🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.72%EV -5.52%E -3.26%K -8.00%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -7.10%E -1.42%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.45%EV -5.60%E -1.51%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-18 21:55
SportsBet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.53%EV -7.19%E -4.33%K -10.90%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -7.10%E -1.42%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.70%EV -3.05%E -0.804%K -1.09%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-18 23:25
BetRivers🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.67%EV -6.08%E -3.62%K -8.94%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -7.10%E -1.42%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.62%EV -6.88%E -1.89%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-18 22:55
Betway🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.77%EV -4.96%E -2.92%K -7.08%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.62%EV -7.10%E -1.42%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -10.71%E -3.06%K -4.28%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-18 23:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.62%EV -6.64%E -3.97%K -9.90%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.58%EV -7.10%E -1.42%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -8.16%E -2.27%K -3.14%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-18 21:55
Everygame🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.11%EV -7.75%E -4.70%K -11.93%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.52%EV -7.10%E -1.42%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.37%EV -6.88%E -1.89%K -2.60%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-18 23:15
Betr (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.92%EV -7.75%E -4.70%K -11.93%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -7.10%E -1.42%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.63%EV -8.16%E -2.27%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-18 21:55
betfred_uk🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.21%EV -6.64%E -3.97%K -9.90%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.44%EV -7.10%E -1.42%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.34%EV -10.71%E -3.06%K -4.28%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-18 21:55
GTbets🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.03%EV -4.40%E -2.57%K -6.20%G +0.000%4.96I 20.16%NM 18.97%EV -7.84%E -1.58%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.00%EV -7.65%E -2.11%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-18 21:55
Betsson🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.76%EV -6.08%E -3.62%K -8.94%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.92%EV -8.02%E -1.62%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -5.60%E -1.51%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-18 23:05
NordicBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.76%EV -6.08%E -3.62%K -8.94%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.92%EV -8.02%E -1.62%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -5.60%E -1.51%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-18 23:05
Marathon Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.53%EV -6.08%E -3.62%K -8.94%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.85%EV -8.02%E -1.62%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 25.63%EV -7.14%E -1.96%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-18 23:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.75%EV -7.19%E -4.33%K -10.90%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.89%EV -8.95%E -1.83%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.36%EV -6.88%E -1.89%K -2.60%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-18 22:55
LeoVegas🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.56%EV -7.19%E -4.33%K -10.90%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.82%EV -8.95%E -1.83%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.62%EV -8.16%E -2.27%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-18 23:23
Tipico (DE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.71%EV -7.75%E -4.70%K -11.93%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.76%EV -8.95%E -1.83%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -8.16%E -2.27%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-18 23:00
PMU (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.16%EV -9.43%E -5.82%K -15.21%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.57%EV -8.95%E -1.83%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27%EV -8.16%E -2.27%K -3.14%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-18 23:23
PlayUp🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.96%EV -6.08%E -3.62%K -8.94%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.04%EV -9.88%E -2.04%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.01%EV -9.43%E -2.66%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-18 23:05
Unibet (FR)🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 56.11%EV -11.11%E -6.99%K -18.83%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 18.40%EV -9.88%E -2.04%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.49%EV -10.71%E -3.06%K -4.28%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-18 23:05
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -6.64%E -3.97%K -9.90%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.06%EV -10.81%E -2.25%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.14%EV -10.71%E -3.06%K -4.28%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-18 22:35
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -6.64%E -3.97%K -9.90%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.06%EV -10.81%E -2.25%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.14%EV -10.71%E -3.06%K -4.28%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-18 22:34
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -6.64%E -3.97%K -9.90%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.06%EV -10.81%E -2.25%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.14%EV -10.71%E -3.06%K -4.28%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-18 22:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -6.64%E -3.97%K -9.90%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.06%EV -10.81%E -2.25%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.14%EV -10.71%E -3.06%K -4.28%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-18 22:35
TABtouch🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.44%EV -8.31%E -5.07%K -12.99%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.94%EV -10.81%E -2.25%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.61%EV -9.43%E -2.66%K -3.70%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-18 23:23
Betclic (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.65%EV -10.55%E -6.59%K -17.58%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.55%EV -10.81%E -2.25%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.81%EV -11.98%E -3.47%K -4.89%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-18 23:10
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.08%EV -6.64%E -3.97%K -9.90%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV -11.74%E -2.47%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -8.16%E -2.27%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-18 21:34
Paddy Power🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.83%EV -9.43%E -5.82%K -15.21%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.04%EV -11.74%E -2.47%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.12%EV -8.16%E -2.27%K -3.14%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-18 23:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.64%EV -9.43%E -5.82%K -15.21%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.97%EV -11.74%E -2.47%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.39%EV -9.43%E -2.66%K -3.70%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-18 23:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.64%EV -9.43%E -5.82%K -15.21%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.97%EV -11.74%E -2.47%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.39%EV -9.43%E -2.66%K -3.70%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-18 23:25
Winamax (DE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.61%EV -8.31%E -5.07%K -12.99%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.40%EV -12.67%E -2.70%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.99%EV -6.88%E -1.89%K -2.60%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-18 22:00
Sky Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.10%EV -9.43%E -5.82%K -15.21%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.40%EV -14.53%E -3.16%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -10.71%E -3.06%K -4.28%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-18 23:25
Winamax (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 54.97%EV -10.55%E -6.59%K -17.58%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.54%EV -16.39%E -3.64%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.49%EV -11.98%E -3.47%K -4.89%G +0.000%13.7%2026-04-18 22:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 53.12%EV -9.43%E -5.82%K -15.21%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.12%EV -16.39%E -3.64%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.76%EV -20.91%E -6.75%K -9.96%G +0.000%16.2%2026-04-18 21:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook1.74I 57.47%NM 57.28%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.80%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.92%0.3%2026-04-18 23:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.74I 57.47%NM 57.28%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.80%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.92%0.3%2026-04-18 23:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.74I 57.47%NM 57.28%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.80%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.92%0.3%2026-04-18 23:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.74I 57.47%NM 57.28%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.80%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.92%0.3%2026-04-18 23:25
Kalshi1.79I 55.87%NM 55.39%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.85%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.75%0.9%2026-04-18 19:35
Smarkets1.73I 57.80%NM 56.69%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.83%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.47%2.0%2026-04-18 23:25