The School of Odds
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Coritiba v Atletico Paranaense

2026-09-12 00:00 UTC — Brazil Série A

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Coritiba (Local)

Prediction 34.60%2.89fair odd
EV -4.86%
Edge -1.77%
Kelly -2.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.04%34.60%34.60%35.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.612.702.7540.82%38.26%37.04%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Atletico Paranaense (Visit)

Prediction 34.81%2.87fair odd
EV -6.01%
Edge -2.23%
Kelly -3.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.04%34.81%35.19%35.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.612.702.7040.82%38.31%37.04%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.59%3.27fair odd
EV -2.10%
Edge -0.658%
Kelly -0.956%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.67%30.59%30.21%31.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.962.903.2035.71%33.84%34.48%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Coritiba (Local): 34.60%; Atletico Paranaense (Visit): 34.81%; Draw: 30.59%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.27. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.20, with an expected value of -2.10%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.58%EV -4.86%E -1.77%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.22%EV -6.01%E -2.23%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.19%EV -3.63%E -1.15%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-01 08:19
SportsBet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.16%EV -6.59%E -2.44%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.16%EV -6.01%E -2.23%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -2.10%E -0.658%K -0.956%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-01 08:19
FanDuel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.16%EV -6.59%E -2.44%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.16%EV -6.01%E -2.23%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -2.10%E -0.658%K -0.956%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-01 08:16
888sport🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.04%EV -6.59%E -2.44%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.04%EV -6.01%E -2.23%K -3.54%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.91%EV -11.89%E -4.13%K -6.33%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-01 08:20
William Hill🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.04%EV -6.59%E -2.44%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.04%EV -6.01%E -2.23%K -3.54%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.91%EV -11.89%E -4.13%K -6.33%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-01 08:19
888sport (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.04%EV -6.59%E -2.44%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.04%EV -6.01%E -2.23%K -3.54%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.91%EV -11.89%E -4.13%K -6.33%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-01 08:19
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.04%EV -6.59%E -2.44%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.04%EV -6.01%E -2.23%K -3.54%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.91%EV -11.89%E -4.13%K -6.33%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-01 08:19
Paddy Power🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.88%EV -10.05%E -3.86%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.88%EV -9.49%E -3.65%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.23%EV -8.22%E -2.74%K -4.11%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-01 08:19
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.12%EV -13.51%E -5.40%K -9.00%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.12%EV -12.97%E -5.19%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.76%EV -9.75%E -3.31%K -5.00%G +0.000%13.9%2026-09-01 13:25
Sky Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.94%EV -13.51%E -5.40%K -9.00%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.94%EV -12.97%E -5.19%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.12%EV -11.28%E -3.89%K -5.94%G +0.000%14.5%2026-09-01 08:20
Unibet (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.57%EV -13.51%E -5.40%K -9.00%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.57%EV -12.97%E -5.19%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.86%EV -14.34%E -5.12%K -7.97%G +0.000%15.7%2026-09-01 13:24
Betclic (FR)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 34.65%EV -14.20%E -5.73%K -9.59%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 34.65%EV -13.67%E -5.51%K -9.24%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.69%EV -14.34%E -5.12%K -7.97%G +0.000%16.4%2026-09-01 13:24
Winamax (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.15%EV -15.24%E -6.22%K -10.51%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.15%EV -14.71%E -6.01%K -10.15%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.70%EV -11.28%E -3.89%K -5.94%G +0.000%16.1%2026-09-01 13:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.48I 40.32%NM 34.65%2.48I 40.32%NM 34.65%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.69%16.4%2026-09-01 13:30