Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 2.80
assuming max odds 3.00
assuming max odds 3.30
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Chapecoense (Local): 36.34%; Vitoria (Visit): 34.08%; Draw: 29.58%. For Vitoria (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.93. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.23%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 38.13%EV -7.33%E -2.88%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.41%EV +2.23%E +0.745%K +1.12%G +0.025% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.46%EV -2.38%E -0.721%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-04-05 18:54 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 38.13%EV -7.33%E -2.88%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.41%EV +2.23%E +0.745%K +1.12%G +0.025% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.46%EV -2.38%E -0.721%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-04-05 18:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.56%EV -5.52%E -2.12%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.78%EV -1.17%E -0.405%K -0.617%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.66%EV -8.30%E -2.68%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-05 18:49 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.02%EV -9.88%E -3.98%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.51%EV -1.17%E -0.405%K -0.617%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.47%EV -5.34%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-05 18:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.02%EV -9.88%E -3.98%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.51%EV -1.17%E -0.405%K -0.617%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.47%EV -5.34%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-05 18:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.02%EV -9.88%E -3.98%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.51%EV -1.17%E -0.405%K -0.617%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.47%EV -5.34%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-05 18:54 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.02%EV -9.88%E -3.98%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.51%EV -1.17%E -0.405%K -0.617%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.47%EV -5.34%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-05 18:54 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.02%EV -9.88%E -3.98%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.51%EV -1.17%E -0.405%K -0.617%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.47%EV -5.34%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-05 18:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.02%EV -9.88%E -3.98%K -6.67%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.51%EV -1.17%E -0.405%K -0.617%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.47%EV -5.34%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-05 18:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.99%EV -4.79%E -1.83%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.65%EV -1.85%E -0.644%K -0.987%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.37%EV -2.38%E -0.721%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-04-05 18:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.66I 37.59%NM 36.36%EV -3.34%E -1.25%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 33.70%EV -2.20%E -0.765%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 29.94%EV -4.45%E -1.38%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-04-05 18:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.26%EV -4.79%E -1.83%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 33.10%EV -2.20%E -0.765%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.64%EV -8.30%E -2.68%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-05 18:50 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.70%EV -5.52%E -2.12%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.48%EV -2.88%E -1.01%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -5.34%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-05 18:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.09%EV -10.97%E -4.48%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -2.88%E -1.01%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -5.34%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-05 18:35 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.11%EV -11.69%E -4.81%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.49%EV -2.88%E -1.01%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.40%EV -6.82%E -2.16%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-05 18:14 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 37.93%EV -11.69%E -4.81%K -8.18%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.34%EV -2.88%E -1.01%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.73%EV -8.30%E -2.68%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-05 18:54 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -9.15%E -3.66%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.19%EV -2.88%E -1.01%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.10%EV -12.73%E -4.32%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-05 18:49 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.48%EV -5.52%E -2.12%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.88%EV -4.58%E -1.64%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.64%EV -5.34%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-05 18:44 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.59I 38.61%NM 36.30%EV -5.88%E -2.27%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.57%EV -4.58%E -1.64%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 30.13%EV -7.70%E -2.47%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-05 18:47 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.59I 38.61%NM 36.23%EV -5.88%E -2.27%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.51%EV -4.58%E -1.64%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -8.30%E -2.68%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-05 18:54 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.59I 38.61%NM 36.23%EV -5.88%E -2.27%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.51%EV -4.58%E -1.64%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -8.30%E -2.68%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-05 18:55 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -12.78%E -5.33%K -9.13%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -4.58%E -1.64%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -8.30%E -2.68%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-05 18:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -12.78%E -5.33%K -9.13%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -4.58%E -1.64%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -8.30%E -2.68%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-05 18:14 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -9.15%E -3.66%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -4.58%E -1.64%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -14.21%E -4.90%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-04-05 18:49 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.58I 38.76%NM 36.05%EV -6.24%E -2.42%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 33.46%EV -5.26%E -1.89%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.49%EV -9.78%E -3.21%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-05 18:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.58I 38.76%NM 36.05%EV -6.24%E -2.42%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 33.46%EV -5.26%E -1.89%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.49%EV -9.78%E -3.21%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-05 18:39 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.58I 38.76%NM 36.14%EV -6.24%E -2.42%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 2.76I 36.23%NM 33.78%EV -5.94%E -2.15%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -8.30%E -2.68%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-05 18:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.06%EV +1.75%E +0.626%K +0.973%G +0.017% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%EV -6.28%E -2.29%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.27%EV -9.78%E -3.21%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-05 18:09 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.06%EV +1.75%E +0.626%K +0.973%G +0.017% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%EV -6.28%E -2.29%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.27%EV -9.78%E -3.21%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-05 18:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -7.33%E -2.88%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.34%EV -6.28%E -2.29%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.62%EV -2.38%E -0.721%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-05 18:40 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.87%EV -7.33%E -2.88%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.19%EV -6.28%E -2.29%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.93%EV -3.86%E -1.19%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-05 18:34 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.15%E -3.66%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.09%EV -6.28%E -2.29%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -2.38%E -0.721%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-05 18:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.15%E -3.66%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.09%EV -6.28%E -2.29%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -2.38%E -0.721%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-05 18:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.15%E -3.66%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.09%EV -6.28%E -2.29%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -2.38%E -0.721%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-05 18:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.15%E -3.66%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.09%EV -6.28%E -2.29%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -2.38%E -0.721%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-05 18:39 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -5.52%E -2.12%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -6.28%E -2.29%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -8.30%E -2.68%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-05 18:35 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -5.52%E -2.12%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -6.28%E -2.29%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -8.30%E -2.68%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-05 18:34 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.37%EV -7.33%E -2.88%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.72%EV -6.28%E -2.29%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.91%EV -8.30%E -2.68%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-05 18:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.80%EV -13.51%E -5.68%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.71%EV -6.28%E -2.29%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.49%EV -9.78%E -3.21%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-04-05 18:14 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.80%EV -13.51%E -5.68%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.71%EV -6.28%E -2.29%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.49%EV -9.78%E -3.21%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-04-05 18:15 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.55%EV -10.97%E -4.48%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.57%EV -6.28%E -2.29%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.88%EV -14.21%E -4.90%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-04-05 18:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.64I 37.88%NM 36.00%EV -4.06%E -1.54%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.20%EV -7.99%E -2.96%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.80%EV -2.38%E -0.721%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-05 18:15 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.03%EV -5.52%E -2.12%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -7.99%E -2.96%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -5.34%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-05 18:14 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.03%EV -5.52%E -2.12%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -7.99%E -2.96%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -5.34%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-05 18:15 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.56I 39.06%NM 36.45%EV -6.97%E -2.72%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.56%EV -7.99%E -2.96%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 28.98%EV -4.75%E -1.47%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-05 18:14 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.48%EV -7.33%E -2.88%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.45%EV -7.99%E -2.96%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -5.34%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-05 18:54 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.48%EV -7.33%E -2.88%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.45%EV -7.99%E -2.96%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -5.34%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-05 18:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.94%EV -9.15%E -3.66%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -7.99%E -2.96%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -5.34%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-05 18:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.24%EV -9.15%E -3.66%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -7.99%E -2.96%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -11.25%E -3.75%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-04-05 18:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.24%EV -9.15%E -3.66%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -7.99%E -2.96%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -11.25%E -3.75%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-04-05 18:34 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -9.15%E -3.66%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -10.71%E -4.09%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -8.30%E -2.68%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-04-05 18:34 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -9.15%E -3.66%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.06%EV -11.40%E -4.38%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -5.34%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-04-05 18:15 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.42%EV -10.97%E -4.48%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.32%EV -11.40%E -4.38%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.26%EV -9.78%E -3.21%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-04-05 18:31 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.07%EV -12.78%E -5.33%K -9.13%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.22%EV -11.40%E -4.38%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -8.30%E -2.68%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-04-05 18:34 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 36.40%EV -12.78%E -5.33%K -9.13%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 34.95%EV -14.80%E -5.92%K -9.87%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.65%EV -9.78%E -3.21%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 14.5% | 2026-04-05 18:14 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 35.30%EV -12.78%E -5.33%K -9.13%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 33.89%EV -14.80%E -5.92%K -9.87%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 30.81%EV -18.65%E -6.78%K -10.66%G +0.000% | 18.0% | 2026-04-05 18:34 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.48% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.77% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.75% | 0.1% | 2026-04-05 18:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.65% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.68% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.67% | 0.3% | 2026-04-05 18:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.65% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.68% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.67% | 0.3% | 2026-04-05 18:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.65% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.68% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.67% | 0.3% | 2026-04-05 18:50 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.63% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.70% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 30.67% | 0.9% | 2026-04-05 18:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.45% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.80% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.75% | 1.6% | 2026-04-05 18:55 |